TweetLens · posts from @michaeljburry no longer on X

In the last couple of weeks I've published four pieces - a Hystory Rhymes, a Short Thoughts, and two installments of the Heretic's Guide.

All together,my argument is simply the challenge to undertand, and by understanding, to consider one's luck in some what has happened here, and how it might turn.

Too academic is code for ?

https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/dont-believe-your-lyin-eyes-gpu-depreciation?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios

Think twice.

New Trading Post September 28, 2028
Big Action in Big Shorts As My Research Progresses, plus a few new Buys
My work on Part VI of the Heretic's Guide dovetails with Ares’s work wonderfully. I am coming at it from the bottoms-up insurance side, and I have collected significant data and come to certain conclusions. My data is more up to date than the data Ares uses. As well, my data is greater in scope on the insurance side.

Do not forget your weekend's mandatory read.
What happened last week explained.
Foundations: Market Structure, Volatility Targeting, Pod Shops & Other Gremlins
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-market-structure-and?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The Type of Read that Grants the Reader not only Understanding but Air Superiority

Genius is found at the cusp of disciplines.
https://youtu.be/WkXAAHDIN7U?si=mABOOPnJrbrkj6g4

Foundations: Market Structure & What The Heck Just Happened
The Type of Read that Grants the Reader not only Understanding but Air Superiority
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-market-structure-and?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
For your weekend reading, studying, tripping, whathaveyou.

The real news is OpenAI slashing and burning its prices to prepare for this.

#DeepSeek releases beta version of V4 models as AI price war heats up. https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/artificial-intelligence/deepseek-releases-beta-version-of-v4-models-as-ai-price-war-heats-up

New Trading Post today.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-30-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

This is called gaining experience.

What’s going on today?https://substack.com/chat/6819723/post/46d5ff49-5e6a-450a-9f3e-b4ca20b597be
That Momenum Pair Unwind was the most dramatic ever, incluidng 26 years ago. So it was due for a bounce the other way. Bear markets have the most dramatic rallies. Especially at the beginning.
I have been explaining and discusssing in the Chat area, My Thought Pad and the companion thread discussing the Thought Pad.

Some posts are timeless. Others become timeless because they were well-timed.

About That Boy Who Cried Wolf
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-may-10-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

There is a reason $NVDA’s 5 year credit default swaps are going parabolic. All this overreaching by #nvda to push the circular spending to biblical proportions .

Foundations: The Psychology of Investing in the Information Age
CNBC’s Warren Buffett Archive, AI and Decision-Making
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-cnbcs-warren-buffett?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

"Excitedly “cramming” all at once will only mean long-term memory is not attained for the content one’s prefrontal cortex so urgently consumed.

Worse, that same prefrontal cortex becomes overloaded with information that cannot be properly processed. This produces cognitive fatigue, affecting the rest of your day in negative ways.

Yes, cramming for one thing makes one dumber for other things. What’s worse, it gives one more ADHD, which no one today needs.

Most of us learned this intuitively during college. Or, are realizing it now."

Evil incarnate.

Ta-da!

The market has voted and the results are clear.

Shades of John Chambers.

Don’t forget your weekend reading!
This is important information of which all should be aware.
…A loan turns out to be worth less than was paid for it, and the majority of the loss, depending on the leverage, is born by the guaranty system. That guaranty system ends with the taxpayer…
Read all about it!
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-june-24-2026-offshore?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios #apolloglobalmanagement $APO #MetLife

Those assets were never meant to mix, so fast-growing is not really what we want. http://x.com/i/article/2080823310816886784

Everyone should read this. Everyone.

Trading Post July 24, 2026 - 4 Shorts, 3 Longs
No frills trading update on a busy day, a word on Palantir, and how to find your peace on top a pile of gold.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-24-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer #nvidia #qqq #patience

When whine works.

(Bloomberg) ---- A US government agency has withdrawn a bid to improve a military intelligence system that is at the heart of lethal targeting following a protest from Palantir Technologies Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.

In its protest, Palantir contended that the DIA was “impermissibly seeking a developmental solution when a commercial solution is already available,”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/after-palantir-beef-us-withdraws-bid-to-improve-military-intel

For those interested I have a running a chat room Thought Pad on Substack.
I post thoughts, charts, news/analysis day and night. There is a companion thread with an active discussion of my Thought Pad postings as well as other AMA type questions.

https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/46d5ff49-5e6a-450a-9f3e-b4ca20b597be?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=share

Hmmm…compression is not about open source per se. Compression is about the limits of knowledge, the use of small parameter proprietary models next to open source large and small parameter models. The idea that humans only have so much knowledge, that the use of that knowledge is limited and often redundant, that these models will become so compressed they will be run on edge compute. It would mean the buildout becomes overbuilt, that AI models are commoditized and customized. It rejects the idea of agent-to agent as of limited practical use and too consumptive of capital and other resources to be anything but carefully executed.

This is one of the better videos showing Randy Rhoads playing the Sandoval Polka Dot V with the converted Danelectro neck.
https://youtu.be/VMACc_dTABg?si=QGOcvm1N89eIVSbd&t=293

Could be smart phones castrated society.

NASDAQ 100 futures up 282, but yep.

The whole thing I think it's sic.

https://youtu.be/IDwaMfOyGj4?si=i8HWEqkKlUomwkQr&t=164

For a weekend deep think, consider this.

Trading Post July 17, 2026 Plus Netflix & What's Up with the VIX
Added to one stock position, cut one put position in half, and added to another put position

https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-17-2026-plus-netflix?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios

It is a particularly good time to look to Hong Kong for cheap stocks that should do well as the shine comes off Korea, Japan & the Soxx.

https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/hong-kong-stocks-structure-and-strategy?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

My whole life, none have pressured me more than myself.

Staying married, a happy household, evidence of the parents working hard, childhood sports and watch all competitions, lots of hugs, reward merit, punish only egregious misbehavior, don't yell, restrict social media, monitor messages through 8th grade, the real expectation is college and academic excellence without pressure from parents, get children reading books early, no pacifiers, respond to needs not wants, babies sleep on their own through the night by 6 months, identify develop and support any talent or aptiude, one sport after age 10 is ok, communicate openly and easily with kids through grade 12, allow mistakes, and leave them alone in college. And then hope.

I am working on something $PLTR.

This is a terrific, tragic history of the Venezuelan oil saga, with US involvement. Puts the events of this weekend into an honest, informed perspective that will wow your friends and family.

This is free, not mine, and I don't know the author, but it is really good, very helpful.

Venezuelan Historical Primer: Friend, Foe, Vassal
https://open.substack.com/pub/endtropy/p/venezuelan-historical-primer-friend?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer