This reader needs JavaScript for search, threads and tags. Recent tweets from @michaeljburry:
- 2026-08-02 — Do not forget your weekend's mandatory read.
What happened last week explained.
Foundations: Market Structure, Volatility Targeting, Pod Shops & Other Gremlins
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-market-structure-and?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The Type of Read that Grants the Reader not only Understanding but Air Superiority ↗
- 2026-08-02 — Genius is found at the cusp of disciplines.
https://youtu.be/WkXAAHDIN7U?si=mABOOPnJrbrkj6g4 ↗
- 2026-07-31 — Foundations: Market Structure & What The Heck Just Happened
The Type of Read that Grants the Reader not only Understanding but Air Superiority
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-market-structure-and?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
For your weekend reading, studying, tripping, whathaveyou. ↗
- 2026-07-31 — The real news is OpenAI slashing and burning its prices to prepare for this.
#DeepSeek releases beta version of V4 models as AI price war heats up. https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/artificial-intelligence/deepseek-releases-beta-version-of-v4-models-as-ai-price-war-heats-up ↗
- 2026-07-30 — New Trading Post today.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-30-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-30 — This is called gaining experience. ↗
- 2026-07-30 — What’s going on today?https://substack.com/chat/6819723/post/46d5ff49-5e6a-450a-9f3e-b4ca20b597be
That Momenum Pair Unwind was the most dramatic ever, incluidng 26 years ago. So it was due for a bounce the other way. Bear markets have the most dramatic rallies. Especially at the beginning.
I have been explaining and discusssing in the Chat area, My Thought Pad and the companion thread discussing the Thought Pad. ↗
- 2026-07-29 — Some posts are timeless. Others become timeless because they were well-timed.
About That Boy Who Cried Wolf
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-may-10-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-29 — Phosphorous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rcmi6_fMhyw ↗
- 2026-07-29 — There is a reason $NVDA’s 5 year credit default swaps are going parabolic. All this overreaching by #nvda to push the circular spending to biblical proportions . ↗
- 2026-07-28 — Foundations: The Psychology of Investing in the Information Age
CNBC’s Warren Buffett Archive, AI and Decision-Making
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-cnbcs-warren-buffett?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
"Excitedly “cramming” all at once will only mean long-term memory is not attained for the content one’s prefrontal cortex so urgently consumed.
Worse, that same prefrontal cortex becomes overloaded with information that cannot be properly processed. This produces cognitive fatigue, affecting the rest of your day in negative ways.
Yes, cramming for one thing makes one dumber for other things. What’s worse, it gives one more ADHD, which no one today needs.
Most of us learned this intuitively during college. Or, are realizing it now." ↗
- 2026-07-28 — Evil incarnate. ↗
- 2026-07-27 — Ta-da! ↗
- 2026-07-27 — The market has voted and the results are clear. ↗
- 2026-07-27 — Shades of John Chambers. ↗
- 2026-07-27 — Around and around we go.
Nvidia to guarantee $200 billion of ChatGPT’s spending on $NVDA chips. ↗
- 2026-07-25 — Don’t forget your weekend reading!
This is important information of which all should be aware.
…A loan turns out to be worth less than was paid for it, and the majority of the loss, depending on the leverage, is born by the guaranty system. That guaranty system ends with the taxpayer…
Read all about it!
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-june-24-2026-offshore?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios #apolloglobalmanagement $APO #MetLife ↗
- 2026-07-25 — Those assets were never meant to mix, so fast-growing is not really what we want. http://x.com/i/article/2080823310816886784 ↗
- 2026-07-24 — Everyone should read this. Everyone. ↗
- 2026-07-24 — The last can private equity will kick down the road
"Private equity (PE) firms have acquired large life insurers and loaded their balance sheets with private credit assets that are opaque and difficult for regulators to value...when a life insurer becomes insolvent, state-based guaranty funds protect insurance policyholders by "assessing" surviving insurers to cover the shortfall. In most states, such outlays are fully creditable against state premium taxes over time..PE-owned life insurers reflect a structural transformation in which an insurer supports a broader asset-management business that is designed to extract value upfront and impose losses on others. PE firms exploit this regulatory regime by pairing life insurers with private credit to capture value from both sides" #privateequity #privatecredit #insurance
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7152239 ↗
- 2026-07-24 — Trading Post July 24, 2026 - 4 Shorts, 3 Longs
No frills trading update on a busy day, a word on Palantir, and how to find your peace on top a pile of gold.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-24-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer #nvidia #qqq #patience ↗
- 2026-07-24 — When whine works.
(Bloomberg) ---- A US government agency has withdrawn a bid to improve a military intelligence system that is at the heart of lethal targeting following a protest from Palantir Technologies Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
In its protest, Palantir contended that the DIA was “impermissibly seeking a developmental solution when a commercial solution is already available,”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/after-palantir-beef-us-withdraws-bid-to-improve-military-intel ↗
- 2026-07-24 — Patience is the single most difficult skill to master for investing well. Too, the most impactful.
Position sizing trails patience. The more patience, the largera a position can be.
One must not mistake patience for foolhardiness.
A hardy fool is just a hardy fool. ↗
- 2026-07-23 — To Ride, To Shoot Straight & To Speak the Truth
Chainsaw Guitars
Chainsaw Vocals
RIP LG
https://youtu.be/tMMYLd8bq2s?si=RgJmz5FFJxkhFrZx&t=911 ↗
- 2026-07-23 — For those interested I have a running a chat room Thought Pad on Substack.
I post thoughts, charts, news/analysis day and night. There is a companion thread with an active discussion of my Thought Pad postings as well as other AMA type questions.
https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/46d5ff49-5e6a-450a-9f3e-b4ca20b597be?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=share ↗
- 2026-07-23 — Hmmm…compression is not about open source per se. Compression is about the limits of knowledge, the use of small parameter proprietary models next to open source large and small parameter models. The idea that humans only have so much knowledge, that the use of that knowledge is limited and often redundant, that these models will become so compressed they will be run on edge compute. It would mean the buildout becomes overbuilt, that AI models are commoditized and customized. It rejects the idea of agent-to agent as of limited practical use and too consumptive of capital and other resources to be anything but carefully executed. ↗
- 2026-07-23 — Watch the long bonds. Treasuries pressured by AI's debt explosion, rising inflation vol, (per the great chart from @Bloomberg's Simon White). Basis Trade's shaky state, #oil back near 100, many factors, many charts. Not sure how much longer PE and PC can hold their breath. ↗
- 2026-07-23 — Trading Post July 23, 2026 - 3 Stock Buys & the BIS Weighs in on AI's Rampant Circular Financing
Taking the Momentum Pair Trade challenge by shorting the Pods
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-23-2026-3-stock?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-23 — There is a lot here.
Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP, & the Failure of Reason https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/palantirs-new-clothes-foundry-aip?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web $pltr #palantir ↗
- 2026-07-22 — Incredible rare footage of Randy Rhoads absolutely killing with his Sandoval Polka Dot guitar with the converted and heavily modded Danoelectro neck.
https://youtu.be/VMACc_dTABg?si=witwOLpW4IvAIrkt&t=293 ↗
- 2026-07-22 — This is one of the better videos showing Randy Rhoads playing the Sandoval Polka Dot V with the converted Danelectro neck.
https://youtu.be/VMACc_dTABg?si=QGOcvm1N89eIVSbd&t=293 ↗
- 2026-07-22 — Who needs humanoid robots? The ChatGPT moment was free and instantly made cheating in school a literal no-brainer. Nothing can spread as fast or make more of an impact than turning off the brains of all students across the world in one instant.
https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/nikkei-forum/global-digital-summit/global-digital-summit-2026/china-s-unitree-says-gpt-moment-for-robots-remains-years-away ↗
- 2026-07-22 — Could be smart phones castrated society. ↗
- 2026-07-21 — PALO ALTO, California -- Hidden debt at U.S. tech giants swelled eightfold in roughly four years to an estimated $1.65 trillion as artificial intelligence investments ballooned, a Nikkei study shows, exceeding actual debt and making it tougher for investors to assess risk.
Nikkei examined recent financial statements and other materials from Google owner Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle. The four companies aside from Oracle are scheduled to announce their second quarter earnings from Wednesday, meaning the figures may increase further.
The five companies' hidden debt, which does not appear on balance sheets, totaled $1.65 trillion in the most recent quarter, exceeding the roughly $1.35 trillion in debt reflected on their balance sheets. The data includes some estimates. ↗
- 2026-07-21 — NASDAQ 100 futures up 282, but yep. ↗
- 2026-07-20 — The whole thing I think it's sic.
https://youtu.be/IDwaMfOyGj4?si=i8HWEqkKlUomwkQr&t=164 ↗
- 2026-07-20 — An urgent note on electricity's grand arrival and its parallels with the current #AI buildout. And, of course, much more.
Enjoy the show! Light the World!
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/the-blessed-fraud-recurrence?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true $NVDA $CRWV $ORCL ↗
- 2026-07-19 — 95% of investors likely have no idea what they really own. Let me re-phrase that. 95% of investors like to have no real idea of what they own. ↗
- 2026-07-19 — Alibaba launches a preview of Qwen3.8 Max, describing it as comparable to the frontier models of all but Anthropic. ↗
- 2026-07-19 — We have done it before, substituting a societal hallucination for a working system and excelling inside that hallucination to the detriment of real world stability and progress. ↗
- 2026-07-18 — For a weekend deep think, consider this. ↗
- 2026-07-17 — Trading Post July 17, 2026 Plus Netflix & What's Up with the VIX
Added to one stock position, cut one put position in half, and added to another put position
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-17-2026-plus-netflix?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-07-17 — It is a particularly good time to look to Hong Kong for cheap stocks that should do well as the shine comes off Korea, Japan & the Soxx.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/hong-kong-stocks-structure-and-strategy?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-16 — My whole life, none have pressured me more than myself. ↗
- 2026-07-16 — Short Thoughts (but long post) July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
Trading Post Plus Commentary on $PYPL Buyout Offer, $IBM and $HCA Swoons, Ben Graham & #GrowthInvesting
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-july-15-2026-pyplibmhcamore?r=4repfn ↗
- 2026-07-16 — Must understand for Fannie and Freddie investors. $FNMA $FMCC - this EO report is not necessarily public and may already be in the administration’s hands.
Order 14393 Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit was signed March 13, 2026. This EO gave the FHFA director 120 days to submit a report on the efficiency of national housing finance markets, recommendations on regulations or legislation. That is due right around this July 11th weekend.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/washington-goes-to-fannie-mae-and?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-07-15 — A helping hand is all ↗
- 2026-07-15 — Short Thoughts July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
Trading Postette Plus Commentary on PayPal Buyout Offer, IBM and HCA Swoons
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-july-15-2026-pyplibmhcamore?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-15 — Wheyew!
https://youtu.be/3lAtSEcojiE?si=jYjxTH42lhNSMI4Y&t=775 ↗
- 2026-07-14 — What's happening. ↗
- 2026-07-13 — http://x.com/i/article/2076501183422664704 ↗
- 2026-07-12 — Today Cassandra Unchained crossed 300,000 subscriber. 231 days from the start.
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/
346,689 Followers.
300,044 Subscribers.
ALL 50 States and 212 Countries.
52% of Subscribers are from Outside the United States.
I am so thankful. ↗
- 2026-07-12 — Fannie, Freddie, Trump & the Housing Crisis
The Health of the Twins Today & Value Drivers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/washington-goes-to-fannie-mae-and?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios
Executive Order 14393 Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit was signed March 13, 2026. This EO gave the FHFA director 120 days to submit… ↗
- 2026-07-12 — Can't be the first to do this. ↗
- 2026-07-12 — The feeling's mutual.
Heart on Sleeve
Stand on Principle
Rock Out
Move On
Dokken - It's Not Love (Official Music Video) https://youtu.be/9maDHDtWo1o?si=0nsrJWO09VOgDZCn ↗
- 2026-07-11 — #kalshi as with all #PredictionMarkets is In a regulatory loophole within an extremely heavily taxed and excessively regulated industry that is gambling no matter what anyone calls it. It is as old as humanity and has driven people to enslave their families and descendents in long ago times. Worse, there is nothing preventing cheating in prediction markets. Cheating, the only activity as old as gambling, with the same power to drive humans to extremes. So Kalshi presents the ability to gamble and cheat, and the loophole allows all of it in every state. So of course it is number 1 by a mile and will keep growing as long as society steps aside and lets these horrific base human weaknesses run roughshod over all and any logical, moral and decent challenge. ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Great comment from a subscriber who commented in our Chat on his direct experience.
Agentic AI is pretty difficult to implement at scale in production because (1) a bunch of new types of systems need to be built that have never existed before (orchestration /routing, context engineering, state management, multi-agent collaboration, security / compliance etc), and (2) an agentic enterprise requires completely new ways of thinking as well as new challenges in governance and culture. The second part is actually the much harder part, which is why there hasn’t been a ton of big success stories yet - every company is trying to figure it out.
Anyway I don’t think the problem is at the demand layer. What’s happening at the finance layer is interesting and could be problematic. But time will tell.
I would hope this is an open forum where people with different perspectives can share knowledge and discuss ↗
- 2026-07-11 — This is true as I have heard this from contacts in the Valley. Goes with my pinned post.
The AI race is shifting from bigger models to cheaper, smarter systems https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/the-ai-race-is-shifting-from-bigger-models-to-cheaper-smarter-systems.html ↗
- 2026-07-11 — #Blackrock, #Blackstone, #Apollo are watching their private credit credit and private equity portfolios and simultaneously setting the Guinesss Book of World Records record for BREATH-HOLDING, going on 4 years now...then they see this chart and almost lose it.
"Up? Up? WTF do you mean UP?" $BLK $BX $APO ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Just never enough.
https://youtu.be/ASQmG8szjTE?si=zbWoh3K_qN75sxp6 ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Now, Class, repeat after me. I will never buy cyclicals at low PEs and record earnings. Say it again. I will never buy cyclicals at low PEs and record earnings. ↗
- 2026-07-11 — AI stocks to the moon! What is wrong with you? Paper Hands? BTFD Never Sell Stonks! ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Home prices never fall! Buy 5 houses! Are you both dumb AND blind? ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Buy Internet Stocks You Idiot! ↗
- 2026-07-11 — Oracle $ORCL junk status can only be ascribed to a God Complex. ↗
- 2026-07-10 — Companies are issuing shares more, buying back less. ↗
- 2026-07-10 — That is not enough lag for the proprietary models to be comfortable let alone optimistic. The vast majority of business uses do not need that 4 months. ↗
- 2026-07-10 — Ballard’s Test: An entity does not possess capacity for understanding until reason is demonstrated in the absence of language. ↗
- 2026-07-10 — PSA- If you have low back pain that radiates into the leg or other nerve pain, ask your doctor about Cymbalta.
This is an antidepressant that really works well on nerve pain, & can provide relief for people with back pain that goes down the leg. ↗
- 2026-07-09 — http://x.com/i/article/2075260348337180672 ↗
- 2026-07-09 — 6D Metal
https://youtu.be/4QEA3FpqKUE?is=nw5P-kpkq0541ARL ↗
- 2026-07-09 — RA METAL
https://youtu.be/TmF6oFbglBY?is=Xhnz1Ye1eIj9UvQC ↗
- 2026-07-08 — http://x.com/i/article/2074935224992247808 ↗
- 2026-07-08 — http://x.com/i/article/2074641529990225920 ↗
- 2026-07-07 — Remember to check out the Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month for July 2026.
5% of gross Substack revenues go to the Charity of the Month.
Seva Foundation is one of the most efficient and productive charities I have come across.
https://www.seva.org/site/PageServer ↗
- 2026-07-07 — DROP Metal
https://youtu.be/wsIJvLGjmk8?is=H9OBBpJcN1ZEhG1A ↗
- 2026-07-07 — 80s Metal
https://youtu.be/VMACc_dTABg?is=uXsp7ACM6L_hl47O ↗
- 2026-07-07 — MOMO Metal
https://youtu.be/s-K8b-y3eDg?is=LEaYNJrdDbE9qH0w ↗
- 2026-07-07 — MU Metal
https://youtu.be/L-lvai3M7K0?is=LBg4U9nbWIWLk0cC ↗
- 2026-07-05 — Turn it up. You're welcome #carcass
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpbpOgUybBM ↗
- 2026-07-04 — July 2026 Charity of the Month
Seva Foundation
Transforming Lives by Restoring Eyesight
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/july-2026-charity-seva-foundation?r=4repfn&utm_medium=
https://www.seva.org/site/PageServer ↗
- 2026-07-04 — Read Advanced Placement Stock-Based Compensation: The Tragic Algebra Recurrence
This is what your favorite $NDX or $NASDAQ or $$OX stock actually earns. https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/ap-sbc-the-tragic-algebra-recurrence?r=4repfn&selection=191c9061-3b0a-4c96-9e60-62520889f795&utm_campaign=post-share-selection&utm_medium=web&aspectRatio=square&textColor=%23ffffff&bgImage=true #Salesforce #meta #alphabet ↗
- 2026-07-03 — Read the latest Trading Post - a new short and additions to five longs.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-july-2-2026?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-07-03 — One day there will be an announcement that lands like Thor’s hammer. Clarity will be brought amidst either tears of joy or tears of despair.
$FNMA $FMCC ↗
- 2026-07-03 — For my Substack.
If you go to this link - the basic web site - you can sign up without extra fees from Apple.
http://michaeljburry.substack.com ↗
- 2026-07-02 — New Mike’s Thought Pad July 2026, where only I will post thoughts, charts, news items & anything I find of interest.
I used to send these to my analysts every day. Now I send them to
via CU Chat. Already 38 today.
https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/f5c106e7-4552-480c-a186-9f653ef8f9e3?utm_source=share ↗
- 2026-07-02 — Wrong direction. This is like Nordstrom’s opening up Nordstrom’s Rack. But Neiman Marcus opens up Neiman Marcus Rack, Bloomingdale’s opens up Bloomingdale’s Rack, Dillard’s opened up Dillard’s rack.
In the end all it proves is there are too many clothes for sale.
Meta pops 9% as company makes cloud push to sell excess AI compute power capacity https://cnb.cx/4oX1Bqz ↗
- 2026-07-01 — Trading Post June 30, 2026
A little window-dressing, the $SOXX, and Caterpillar $CAT
It is only a matter of time now.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-30th-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-07-01 — Staying married, a happy household, evidence of the parents working hard, childhood sports and watch all competitions, lots of hugs, reward merit, punish only egregious misbehavior, don't yell, restrict social media, monitor messages through 8th grade, the real expectation is college and academic excellence without pressure from parents, get children reading books early, no pacifiers, respond to needs not wants, babies sleep on their own through the night by 6 months, identify develop and support any talent or aptiude, one sport after age 10 is ok, communicate openly and easily with kids through grade 12, allow mistakes, and leave them alone in college. And then hope. ↗
- 2026-06-30 — My years as a Silicon Valley techie immediately before the internet.
https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/p-204160341?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action ↗
- 2026-06-29 — Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value
Powerful Trends, Increasing Fragility & Coiled Tension
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-us-market-structure-and?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-06-29 — One hit wonders unite! ↗
- 2026-06-29 — I studied past crises and big stock market crashes to come to this rough guide.
Trading Post June 18, 2026
Dollar Cost Averaging with Volume Signals
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-18-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer ↗
- 2026-06-29 — Thank you Janet! Your books are how I learned about CDS. I owe you! ↗
- 2026-06-28 — Trading Post June 25, 2026
Hong Kong, Adds, One Sale to Add, One New Position and One Short Cover
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-25-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-06-27 — Sunday Big Read
Two free recent articles no paywalls:
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III:
(AI Demand, Offshore Financing, & More)
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios
Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
(Part 2 of 6)
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/50-software-and-payments-stocks-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-06-27 — 1500 word version of the original 5200 word article.
[Abridged] lululemon athletica (LULU): An Ode to Bad Management & The Politics of Skin-Tight Leggings
In Defense of an 800lb Gorilla
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/abridged-lululemon-athletica-lulu?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #lululemon $lulu ↗
- 2026-06-26 — lululemon athletica (#lululemon, $LULU): An Ode to Bad Management & The Politics of Skin-Tight Leggings
In Defense of an 800-lb Gorilla
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/lululemon-athletica-lulu-where-is?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-06-26 — ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long
https://youtu.be/GXCh9OhDiCI?si=2drxyXpbLtZ70pNq ↗
- 2026-06-25 — New Trading Post June 25, 2026
Hong Kong, Adds, One Sale to Add, One New Position and One Short Cover
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-june-25-2026 ↗
- 2026-06-23 — Rock rock til you drop. ↗
- 2026-06-23 — Timeless Seth Klarman.
What the world needs now
Is a Margin of Safety ↗
- 2026-06-23 — Man is best when running from the abyss.
https://youtu.be/DECp8LKurKs?si=0GidryC0xgkI_txg ↗
- 2026-06-21 — I am a fan of midjourney, but wow. Read until the end.
This is indeed how medicine and health care can be reimagined in this new paradigm of untold processing power.
https://www.midjourney.com/medical/blogpost ↗
- 2026-06-19 — SPS SPS SPS SPS SPS SPS
Please? Clarity is all we as $FNMA and $FMCC shareholders ask. ↗
- 2026-06-19 — Did not feel like that at all.
https://www.apollo.com/wealth/the-daily-spark/strip-out-ai-and-energy-and-the-sp-500-is-down ↗
- 2026-06-18 — A stock falls from 100 to 10. That's a 90% decline.
The investor buys in at 10 because it is indeed worth 30.
But it has fallen so much it has become detached from the underlying business and so falls to 5.. The value investor is down 50%.
Which isn't as bad as 90%, but is still 50 effing percent.
The value investor could have sold at 8, and limited the loss.
10 years later the stock is at $30. While said nvestor gies to medical school and finsihes residency to become a surgeon.
That's a six times return in 10 years. About 20% per year.
Wait, is it not only a triple?
No, because the investor could have sold at 5 like just about everyone else did, but did not.
What I describe here is almost exactly WBD. And it didn't take 10 years, because it usually doesn't. ↗
- 2026-06-17 — Bedtime stories.
Once upon a time, there was Tiger.
The End of the Game; Tiger Management, Old-Economy Advocate, Is Closing https://www.nytimes.com/2000/03/31/business/the-end-of-the-game-tiger-management-old-economy-advocate-is-closing.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share via @NYTimes ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Trading Post June 16, 2026
Some early birthday presents for me, and SpaceX.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-16-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web $SPCX ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Trading Post 6/16/26 Significantly expanded.
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-june-15-2026?r=4repfn ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Cut deep if cut at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBUjAKvuWuI
#amonamarthband ↗
- 2026-06-16 — That great sucking sound is momentum and the valuation vacuum it is leaving behind ↗
- 2026-06-15 — It has been ridiculous for a very very long time. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — Got tix for an October show. Saw them in 1986, a great light display, and never thought then I would see Rush in 2026.
I’ve seen Rush multiple times, always a fantastic show. RIP Neil, you were the best.
#Rush “Xanadu” opening night 50 Something Tour. https://youtu.be/cSGX3tPvGS8?is=foviHTDjX5vwJ-u0 ↗
- 2026-06-12 — New Trading Post June 12, 2026
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-12-2026?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-06-11 — I have found the key to happiness is gratitude. The thankful are by nature humbled by the grace of others and cognizant of the miracles that surround us every single day. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Who's driving?
https://youtu.be/XYYGKCanqfA?si=t6BMSc35eW2bnsc1 ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Where is the production and mix like this these days?
Megadeth - Sweating Bullets (Official Music Video) https://youtu.be/aOnKCcjP8Qs?si=IMbNn63QLHrO_KKn ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Sometimes investing is really that easy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-june-8-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-06-08 — Get those Wolverine Blues
#TheEntombed
https://youtu.be/uNi0tsCU-6g?si=vEa91bFKLE5tWiYm ↗
- 2026-06-06 — DEVILDRIVER
Dead in the Water
effing kicks
Founding bass man muse Jon Miller
back with vengeance
Strike and Kill full album out July 10th
#devildriver
https://youtu.be/BAO10gRLZT0?si=kFT6i4CGmXX7sSRF ↗
- 2026-06-05 — DEVILDRIVER is back with a raw in your face old school tune. #devildriver
Great to see Dez bringing it again.
Dig Your Own Grave (Official Video) | Napalm Records https://youtu.be/MmxM1USsT2s?si=pElsOQTJUh6jS_52 ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Sounds of galloping horses, through the breach never to open, run over to rise again, until clouds darken. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — Shorting is a world filled with slippery slopes and sand castles. The sand castles are real, and vulnerable, but the slippery slopes drive men insane and ultimately prevent most from being properly positioned when the castle is washed away. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — New Post - Trades, Short Philosophy, SpaceX bits, and Memory Chips Misremembering
MEGA Trading Post/Short Thoughts Mash-Up June 2, 2026
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/mega-trading-postshort-thoughts-mash ↗
- 2026-06-01 — [Abridged] Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Part 2 of a 6-Part Series Covering 50 Software & Payments Stocks, Full Analysis and Ranking abridged to 2400 words from 14,000 $ADBE $ADSK $U $PANW $CRWD $DOCU $ZS $INTU
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/abridged-software-and-payments-stocks?r=4repfn ↗
- 2026-05-31 — The Sunday Long Read or Listen
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III
Nvidia’s $182 billion Supply Chain Gamble
MetLife Selling Out for the AI Buildout
$662 Billion Off-Balance Sheet debt among $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $ORCL $META
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-29 — Free to anyone interested.
Part IV of the Heretic’s Guide to AI’ Stars is coming along nicely. In light of the news today about Apollo’s $38 billion debt raise for $GOOG TPUs (not $NVDA GPUs) for Anthropic, I have decided to pre-release one visual from Part IV. Enjoy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-may-29-2026?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-29 — Software & Payments Stocks Part II:
Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
14.000 words & 16 visuals across 8
Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity stocks, 2nd in a 6-Part Series covering more than 50 stocks
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/50-software-and-payments-stocks-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-27 — Adjusted for inflation, the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOS will raise as much or more than the 300 internet and TMT IPOs did in 2000.
$SPCX #Anthropic #chatGPT #SpaceX #openai ↗
- 2026-05-26 — AI Demand, Offshore Financing & Compression Too
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III
In either case, this is a set up on the down low for a wicked bullwhip.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $NOW $WDAY $PLTR $AMZN $APO $MET $ORCL
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-26 — New Short Thoughts - Patterns, NVIDIA's Settled State, and Hong Kong Crackdown
There is another angle that I did not discuss in Part III, and it directly addresses current misinformation on demand, the highly leveraged financing of the buildout, and both the mechanism and timing for the AI narrative to come to Jesus. I spent most of this weekend expanding this thesis from the cutting room floor of The Heretic’s Guide Part III, and I cannot wait to share it with you.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thoughts-may-25-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer ↗
- 2026-05-24 — Many are using this chart to prove Jevons Paradox is working. They should look closer at the pattern and read Heretic’s Guide Part III.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios
Prices had already fallen for some time when the big token demand lift happened. Tokenmaxxing and benchmarking are much better explanation than Jevons Paradox based on the timeline than prices of tokens falling.
In fact this chart may not show Jevons Paradox at all. And, if it does not, that is some massive benchmarking demand that is temporary and sending the wrong demand signal up and down the supply chain. Perhaps skipping a few cycles in the bullwhip effect.
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-19 — Per Slok, 87% of VC funding is directed at AI, 49% of investment grade bond issuance is AI, and 38% of high yield bond issuance is linked to AI.
During the internet boom, in 1999, less than 40% of VC funding was linked to internet companies.
Broadening to the wider tech-media-telecom (TMT) bubble, in 1999, VC funding for TMT hit 80% of all funding. TMT bonds were 40-50% of the high yield bond issuance in 2000 and 25-30% of total investment grade bond issuance.
Over $100B investment grade debt issued in 1999-2000 became junk by 2002.
High yield debt at 38% today vs 40%-50% back then belies the idea that today’s AI debt issuance is cleaner, backed by more profitable companies today. ↗
- 2026-05-17 — National Brain Tumor Society @NBTStweets is the Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month.
May is Brain Tumor Awareness Month #graymay
May 17th, is International Oligodendroglioma Day
I wrote about my affinity for the National Brain Tumor Society in the free post below. #braintumor
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/national-brain-tumor-society-may?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-05-17 — New Abridged Version of D’ai of the Triffids: Office Software Triage
The first in a series of six posts covering 46 software and payments stocks.
This version is ~1500 words, less than 1/8th the size of the original post, which I do recommend.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/dai-of-the-triffids-office-software-922?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-05-15 — New Article - First in a Six-Part Series Covering 46 Software & Payments Stocks -
D'ai of the Triffids: Office Software Triage
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/dai-of-the-triffids-office-software?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-05-14 — Through the centuries.
't was not so long ago.
https://youtu.be/b7jGGBxA3Yg?si=a4Wf5LdLT27AuBDt ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Short Thoughts May 10, 2026
About That Boy Who Cried Wolf
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-may-10-2026?r=4repfn ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Beast. RIP Alexi @COBHC
Lots of hate out there. Bring it on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQO9mc_jdUM ↗
- 2026-05-10 — This matters when problems in private credit spread to data center financing. ↗
- 2026-05-10 — Credit, where credit is due.
"The public swipes Palantir executives are taking at the quality of work coming from the AI labs these days reflect a concern increasingly familiar to the American worker: Palantir is at risk of being replaced, or at least rendered less necessary, by AI, according to AI company executives, current and former Palantir employees, and analysts who follow the company."
As Palantir CEO Alex Karp derides AI “slop,” investors and some employees see a real threat of the company ceding business to artificial-intelligence models https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/for-palantir-ai-is-a-product-a-punching-bagand-a-problem-a4cfea77?st=bdYWcS $PLTR @WSJbusiness ↗
- 2026-05-08 — The birth of metal.
https://youtu.be/2aXoOuenwkU?si=IEcVfelOtgHjoBU3 ↗
- 2026-05-08 — New Trading Post today.
Trading Post Friday May 8, 2026 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-friday-may-8-2026?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-05-07 — A new Trading Post.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-may-7-2026?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-06 — 1990 History - incredible Suicidal Tendencies footage!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3z6BMWvyRs ↗
- 2026-05-06 — Great commentary yet again from BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky
•Party Like It's 1999. In 1999, the best performing Nasdaq 100 stock was Qualcomm (QCOM, not rated), up 2600%. The best rolling 52-wk return for QCOM during the entire dot-com bubble was 2600%, so SNDK is beating that by 1300bps. Interestingly, the second-best stock in 1999 was SNDK up 581%.
•More Extreme. If we look at the top 10 performing NDX stocks in 1999, they were up an average of 559%. The top 10 in the year leading up to 3/24/00 were up an average of 622%. The top 10 NDX names over the last year are up an average of 784%, beating both the dot-com periods.. ↗
- 2026-05-06 — New Trading Post today. Palantir, Hong Kong, SOXX, Australia, etc
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/trading-post-tuesday-may-5-2026?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-05-05 — This Ryan Cohen interview on eBay is a good one.
Interview starts at 1:33:33
https://www.youtube.com/live/94-M9YGnqQs?t=5613s ↗
- 2026-05-05 — $PLTR at $137 and with that $350+ billion fully diluted market cap you can still buy Northrop Grumman $NOC, General Dynamics $GD and Lockheed Martin $LMT, and have enough left over for L3Harris $LHX.
Or you could buy every single one of my 38 GameStop $GME acquisition alternatives PLUS Lockheed Martin. ↗
- 2026-05-04 — GameStop Makes Its Play
$56 Billion for eBay, Makes Perfect Sense
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/gamestop-makes-its-play?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
$GME $EBAY ↗
- 2026-05-03 — It is not too late @ryancohen
$GME , a list of alternatives from February 2nd:
$NXST 6.3B
$SAM 2.3B
$SFM 6.9B
$W 14B
$BRKR 7B
$MOH 10B
$BIRK 7B
$SFM 6.9B
$SLM 5.5B
$NAVI 1B
$FMCC 4.8B
$FNMA 9.7B
$DOM LN 1B
$FND 7.4B
$POOL 9.5B
$KNSL 9.2B
$NEU 6.3B
$FTDR 4.3B
$DOM 14B
$OSIS 4.6B
$IDT 1.4B
$JACK 400mm
$SIG 3.8B
$ETSY 5.5B
$OVV 11B
$TDOC 1B
$ROKU 15B
$GOOS 1.2B
$WYNN 11.3B
$BEN 13.5B
$CMA 12B
$HP 3.6B
$ADT 6.7B
$RH 3.8B
$M 5.3B
$MGM 9.2B
$AGO 4.5B
$ANF 4.2B
$WTM 5.2B ↗
- 2026-04-17 — Markets have never seen a needle top. ↗
- 2026-04-16 — Dwarkesh nailed it. Jensen squirmed and obfuscated. This was shocking to me. Every $NVDA bull needs to watch this with an unbiased eye.. ↗
- 2026-04-11 — The '80s LA I remember about this time of year.
https://youtu.be/Lv2o1U93t2s?si=KhbYUro0NoP2fENZ ↗
- 2026-04-11 — I approve this message. ↗
- 2026-04-10 — The last @asilaydyingband album was different but asbolutely incredible.
https://youtu.be/ImrRjeKMHVk?si=7H7W7mwtdRaifUeM ↗
- 2026-04-10 — Trade Alerts are here.
To ensure exclusive distribution of Dr. Burry’s trades only to paid subscribers, Cassandra Unchained will transmit Trade Alerts by email, similar to how research pieces are distributed.
The idea is to get information out both quickly and securely to the right people.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/new-feature-dr-burrys-trade-alerts?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer ↗
- 2026-04-09 — Shout out down under @parkwayofficial #parkwaydrive
https://youtu.be/9m4685liWb0?si=mpEJJGVw0CVDpJYN ↗
- 2026-04-09 — Probably worth following Claude if you are an investor in these markets. ↗
- 2026-04-08 — The Joyful Heart Foundation @TheJHF
(https://www.joyfulheartfoundation.org)
Is the April 2026 Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month.
Joyful Heart Foundation supports preventative and legislative solutions as well as care, treatment and healing for victims of abuse - child abuse, rape, domestic violence.
Every month I vet and highlight an amazing charity that puts donations to a very strong need. Five percent of top line revenues from CU for the month of April will go to The Joyful Heart Foundation, and I hope others will spread the word and donate to this very important charity as well.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/april-2026-cassandra-unchained-charity?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-04-07 — Advanced Placement Stock-Based Compensation, A General Theory & Study of the NASDAQ100 $NDX & its Constituents.
There is a 1500 word summary at the end of the full article, and there is a results table of NASDAQ 100 stocks with all calculations for each constituent. ↗
- 2026-04-07 — AP SBC: The Tragic Algebra Recurrence
A General Theory & Study of the NASDAQ 100 & its Constituents
$NDX
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/ap-sbc-the-tragic-algebra-recurrence?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer
$NDX @NasdaqExchange #NASDAQ ↗
- 2026-04-01 — This just hits hard right now. #Megadeth @DaveMustaine and how do I have more followers than Dave?
Sepultura Territory and Roots Bloody Roots as well.
https://youtu.be/9d4ui9q7eDM?si=QJbaubuBHTAUQfmn ↗
- 2026-03-31 — Woke up humming this today.
Amon Amarth - Victorious March (Live) https://youtu.be/YaPOol35miE?si=9TqjsCG_qmTu5Fnn ↗
- 2026-03-31 — Shorts are not forever. ↗
- 2026-03-27 — Open Letter on Housing, Fannie & Freddie
@realDonaldTrump @pulte @SecScottBessent @FHFA @USTreasury $fnma $FMCC
We studied housing square footage per capita adequacy, and found that there is no problem there. The US in fact has more residential square footage per capita than any other country in the world. This is not a housing shortage, despite what so many say.
The problem is that bigger houses are inefficiently housing fewer people. The post-COVID low rate environment locked people into a lifecycle real estate position. Empty nesters can't sell, first time home buyers cannot buy. Second-hand home inventory is near all-time lows due to record low supply, not record demand. Prices are high due to the same reason.
Home equity is now a record $35 trillion, nearly doubling pre-COVID levels. 40% of homeowners own their homes free and clear - a record. And about 30% of all home buyers pay for homes without borrowing. Older homes were upgraded at a record pace during COVID, extending and refreshing the usefulness of residential real estate.
Artificially low interest rates, ~$6-7 trillion in helicopter cash and forgivable loans helped drive both the home updates and high housing prices.
Work from home moved the office into the home, often expensed or deductible. People with white collar jobs and means chose to live/work in exotic or remote locations.
All of this together does not speak of a housing shortage, or a housing problem.
Instead it is a problem of current residential space allocation and mobility, and this problem was created by government manipulation of interest rates, cash money supply, and COVID lockups that went on too long and changed work/home behavior.
Government created the problem and now maintains policies that prevent free markets from reaching a solution, not the least of which is keeping the GSEs inefficiently run while in conservatorship. Recall Pulte's video upon arriving at Fannie Mae - no one was in the office buildings. The companies have become atherosclerotic, inefficient government programs, while a decade of financial engineering optimized for homeowner wealth accumulation rather than housing market velocity/mobility/fluidity.
Government must fix this problem by facilitating efficient re-allocation of housing stock with higher housing velocity/mobility through the release of the GSEs into free markets.
This is a problem made for the GSEs. Through well-targeted programs, the GSE can help the free market find spaces to intelligently reallocate , and help US citizens with housing mobility.
Building more new overpriced, poorly built homes in increasingly dangerous flood zones and other hazardous fringe areas is not the solution. It adds to the problem through high maintenance burdens on new homeowners with little equity in their homes.
Rather, to build mobility/velocity of homeowners and housing space, the GSEs need to be recapitalized and retain easy access to capital markets. They also need to be run by real mortgage executives, not government functionaries.
To achieve this they need to exit conservatorship in a manner that excites markets to fund these companies, now with guidelines to prevent risk-taking outside of their purpose, and grow their purchases of mortgages of well-targeted specification.
I should have written this into the Recurrence piece itself. ↗
- 2026-03-22 — https://youtu.be/jl1pl7CAViM?si=89q8NlSMLZWee2Id ↗
- 2026-03-22 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYbhK1O3Kok ↗
- 2026-03-22 — Kicks.
https://youtu.be/SHYK96uGirM?si=4O-fSn_EZ2oWtCFv ↗
- 2026-03-21 — What really matters to the market and the US economy is not the Strait of Hormuz. ↗
- 2026-03-18 — Despite price action since, regarding Fannie Mae $FNMa and Freddie Mac $FMCC, I stand by every single thing I wrote in December.
This scenario was contemplated.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/fannie-and-freddie-toxic-twins-no?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-03-17 — The Sound of Truth - As I Lay Dying, a top 5 metal band and #1 crying shame. @ASILAYDYINGBAND
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJzTlJ8hs4I
#20 In Flames
#19 Death
#18 Ice Nine Kills
#17 Carcass
#16 Judas Priest
#15 Lamb of God
#14 Slayer
#13 Obituary
#12 Devildriver
#11 Suicidal Tendencies
#10 Max Cavalera/Sepultura
#9 Entombed
#8 Megadeth
#7 Pantera
#6 Black Sabbath
#5 Iron Maiden
#4 As I Lay Dying
#3 Slipknot
#2 Metallica
#1 Children of Bodom ↗
- 2026-03-15 — Weekend reading that never gets old. The case of the relevance of an 1880 presentation @smithsonian to today’s debate on what scaling “AI” through LLMs gets us. $NVDA $AVGO $META
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/history-rhymes-large-language-models?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-03-15 — Short Thought: Nvidia Ratchets Up the Risk
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thought-nvidia-ratchets-up?r=4repfn&selection=fa38fbbb-a883-475d-806f-5e653f94a8e4&utm_campaign=post-share-selection&utm_medium=web&aspectRatio=square&textColor=%23ffffff&bgImage=true ↗
- 2026-03-13 — Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy Part 2
Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/hong-kong-stocks-structure-and-strategy-054?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-03-09 — Cassandra Unchained's March 2026 Charity of the Month is The Headstrong Project, a non-profit mental health organization providing confidential, barrier-free and stigma-free PTSD treatment to our veterans, service members, and family.
Founded in 2012 by a combat veteran, this charity is doing the work the government should be doing.
Every little bit helps. Spread the word!
https://theheadstrongproject.org/
CU donates 5% of March's revenues to the Charity of the Month.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/march-2026-charity-of-the-month-the?r=4repfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true ↗
- 2026-03-05 — The headline here is the Cash Conversion Cycle is extending permanently along with Days Inventory Outstanding.
This new reality reflects a deliberate decision to lock up supply chain capacity further than Nvidia has ever done before.
The Form 10-K shows Nvidia has $117B total supply obligations (inventory+purchase agreements), nearly matching Nvidia’s Operating Cash Flow for the year. The chart below shows…
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thought-nvidia-ratchets-up?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-03-03 — Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value
Powerful Trends, Increasing Fragility & Coiled Tension
I have been attacking the narrative, warning of failed expectations.
I have yet to tackle directly the overvaluation of the market itself, which is generally a good thing - for a very specific reason. Along these lines, however, I do track something that I want to share with you.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/foundations-us-market-structure-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer ↗
- 2026-03-01 — Prompt engineering remains the number one way enterprises use AI. By a mile. This was according to the Menlo Ventures data I had posted.
“When the Pentagon’s Michael describes how Anthropic’s AI is being used, it sounds familiar to anyone using Claude or OpenAI’s ChatGPT—except running on classified information—as the large organization looks to be more efficient. “
“In the military context, there’s a lot of logistics that happen in the military,” he told CBS News. “How do I get something from one place to another? How much stuff do I have in either place? What do I need to move efficiently forward? What supplies might I need for a certain mission? How do I take all these different papers that have been written about what I’m going to do and make it in a consistent, summarized document?
In other words, boring stuff. “
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/whats-really-at-stake-in-the-fight-between-anthropic-and-the-pentagon-d450c1a1?st=ZXFiDQ ↗
- 2026-02-28 — History Rhymes: Large Language Models Off to a Bad Start?
New series where I look at historical newspapers for insight into today's events. This one's free, check it out.
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/history-rhymes-large-language-models?r=4repfn ↗
- 2026-02-27 — As Nvidia pours $30 billion into OpenAI so OpenAI can spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips, remember this story from last week.
Reuters reported two weeks ago that OpenAI had become dissatisfied with the performance of Nvidia’s hardware for certain types of inference tasks, especially coding-related workloads and AI-to-software interactions. The company began exploring alternatives last year, including deals with AMD, Cerebras, and early discussions with Groq.
It was reported that OpenAI was specifically concerned about speed, saying Nvidia’s GPUs were not fast enough for certain inference-heavy products such as Codex, OpenAI’s coding model.
Inference, in contrast to training, relies heavily on memory access speed. Reuters reported that OpenAI was looking at architectures using large amounts of on-chip SRAM, which could accelerate real-time responses but differ from Nvidia’s conventional GPU designs.
https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/doubts-delays-hardware-tensions-what-led-to-nvidia-shrinking-its-openai-deal-from-from-100b-to-30b-90229.htm ↗
- 2026-02-27 — This is the 2022 Palantir White Paper on Edge AI. You can see Edge AI was focused entirely on machine learning as it applies to drone data interpretation. There is no path from Edge AI in 2022 as pure ML. It was a cold pivot to jump on the LLM bandwagon.Palantir marketed that this was 20 years in coming and pointed to Edge AI, which could not have been the forebear of AIP. In the Philosopher in the Valley Book, sources told the author (page 260) AIP was developed in a matter of week as a response to GPT’s popularization of LLMs.
“It’s the 20 years of experience that we have solving the problems that matter… because we’ve been roughly two decades ahead, it’s given us a lot of lead.” Is from Palantir CTO Shankar Aug 2023 earnings call.
But this whitepaper — from 2022 — documents that Palantir’s actual AI product was ML/computer vision for drone video feeds. No LLMs, no generative AI, no natural language processing.
Only after Palantir met with Bob McGrew from OpenAI to ask whether ChatGPT represented real intelligence or “just persuasive mimicry” (pages 258-259.) did Palantir decide to redevelop Edge AI and go down the AIP path, bolting the bandwagon onto Foundry.
https://www.palantir.com/assets/xrfr7uokpv1b/Fjx2oGcPOBz8KDBCTEsMX/37ee389b37a63a67381c269cc9549fbb/Whitepaper_-_Palantir_Edge_AI_-_Q1_2022.pdf ↗
- 2026-02-27 — This sounds more than familiar.
$PLTR somehow kept its name out of this story.
OpenAI describes Frontier as a “semantic layer for the enterprise”—a unified platform that lets AI agents navigate business software, execute workflows, and make decisions across an organization’s entire technology stack, such CRM systems, HR platforms, and internal ticketing tools. Early enterprise customers include Intuit, State Farm, Thermo Fisher, and Uber. Meanwhile OpenAI says its own “forward deployed engineers” will work alongside the teams from the consultancies in client engagements.
Under these new partnerships, which OpenAI has deemed Frontier Alliances, each consulting firm is investing in dedicated practice groups and building teams certified on OpenAI technology.
The consultants will help heir clients redesign workflows; integrate AI agents with software tools and systems; help clients with change management; and provide industry-specific expertise OpenAI doesn’t have, Frontier, which OpenAI debuted earlier this month, is a system that allows businesses and organizations to build, deploy, supervise, and govern AI agents
.https://fortune.com/2026/02/23/openai-partners-with-mckinsey-bcg-accenture-and-capgemini-to-push-its-frontier-ai-agent-platform/ ↗
- 2026-02-26 — This is an excerpt from my Asia Fund letter to investors in 2005. The emergence of Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and other giant companies with global ambitions was obvious back then, even if they were not yet apparent. ↗
- 2026-02-26 — Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy
In the last 10 years, Netflix, Broadcom, and Tencent all increased revenue between 4.5-5X. Broadcom and Netflix have been leading performers, but Tencent’s stock has almost exactly a 0% return over the last five years.
This is the problem. All of Hong Kong’s massive tech stocks became massive since 2007, and the Hang Seng is today ~27,000, 15% lower than 2007...
$BABA $JD $PDD $BIDU $TCOM
#BABA #HangSeng #PDD #KWEB
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/hong-kong-stocks-structure-and-strategy?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-02-26 — Just a $NVDA thought.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/short-thought-nvidia-ratchets-up?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
- 2026-02-23 — And you think I’m bearish.
https://open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/2028gic?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-02-22 — In the 1920s there was radio mania focused mostly on one stock, RCA. The stock fell peak to trough about 98% during early 1930s, and yet radio’s growth never slowed for many more decades. Even if you predicted a half century of radio dominance, you would have lost money on RCA. $NVDA ↗
- 2026-02-21 — A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, “When does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?”
It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so urgent, because it scales?
But if it scales, when does it end?
Now you are engaging in accounting tricks to hide expense, to protect earnings, as the impact is so severe. You will be tortuously adjusting your earnings in a new and sinister ways.
When does it end? ↗
- 2026-02-19 — $PLTR's 10-K, released yesterday, deserves some discussion. Palantir: An Accounting does not stand alone, and should be read in conjunction with Palantir's New Clothes.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/palantir-an-accounting?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer ↗
- 2026-02-17 — Rex at the end of the concert. Respect ↗
- 2026-02-17 — Phil Anselmo @philiphanselmo and Zakk Wylde @ZakkWyldeBLS
@Pantera, June 22, 2025
Levi Stadium Santa Clara
Still feeling the circle pit, awesome show
Historic, epic band #Pantera ↗
- 2026-02-16 — Convergence, commoditzation, compression and reflexivity - the 4 horsemen of the data center buildout apocalypse.
DeepSeek V4 launches mid-February 2026 1T parameters, 1M token context, 3 architectural innovations @ 10-40x lower than Western Comps $NVDA https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026 ↗
- 2026-02-15 — And the current cause of some hullabaloo.
My take on $PLTR.
Please read yourselves before coming to any conclusions. I also post on the Notes section on Substack and anyone can see those.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/palantirs-new-clothes-foundry-aip?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-02-15 — Our December Charity of the Month, Together California, which is doing so much for foster children in the LA Area.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/december-2025-cassandra-unchained?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-02-12 — 10,000+ words, enjoy! $PLTR
Taken together, in the decade before it went public (in late 2020), Palantir, rightfully or wrongfully, and almost entirely not of its own doing, was becoming a household name as an influential secretive company that worked with powerful partners. Few knew how much money it was losing.
A DPO by Any Other Name
Then, in the summer of 2020, Palantir filed a Form S-1 prospectus, and we knew. Palantir had lost $3.96 billion in its history as of June 30, 2020, according to the IPO filing. In 2018 and 2019, the two years directly before the IPO, the company lost a combined $1.2 billion.
The later funding rounds were not cheap. The largest single round, Series K at $899 million, was done at $11.38/share in 2019. The company also supplemented its cash flows between financings and refinancings by juggling revolving lines of credit.
As the company prepared to go public in August 2020, Palantir’s board awarded Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options. If you have not realized it by now, the company really knows how to throw money around.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/palantirs-new-clothes-foundry-aip?r=4repfn&utm_medium=ios ↗
- 2026-02-10 — I am working on something $PLTR. ↗
- 2026-02-07 — Donations are now being matched through International Women's Day (March 8th)
https://fistulafoundation.org/donate/
Also, below is my answer to a question from another forum:
The $624 is the direct cost of the surgery, from admission through discharge, including pre- and post-operative care. This an average over 1 year across the entire treatment network. Lots of different countries so clearly it will vary.
The fully loaded cost to treat a woman, including outreach, transportation, rehabilitation support, and investments in surgeon training and equipment, and of course the administrative and logistics costs of running this program - all that is $1,189 - an average over 1 year across the whole program. The program runs a Salesforce database to administer the program, and this makes these sorts of calculations possible.
90% of funded surgeons are from the regions they serve, and 84 cents of every dollar goes directly to program services. The Foundation works locally to establish provider training, referral networks and community outreach. One problem is many suffering women do not know that their condition is treatable at all and have suffered 5.7 years on average before receiving care. Reaching them with some urgency takes quite a lot of effort.
Knowing Whitney, and knowing the program from when it was getting started, I am very confident that the claimed outcomes are real. My wife and I in fact used this one as a standard against which we set other charities under consideration years ago.
Generally, funds go directly to the local hospitals. I know Kate made this a priority when she got this all going. Kate worked for USAID and saw waste up close. She really wanted this to be different, with funds going directly where they do the most good - hospitals and doctors in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
Approximately 6% of partners process funding through an US entity. As an example, a long-term partner in Angola is funded through their US intermediary because Angola is notoriously corrupt. But the goal is always to fund the hospital wherever possible.
In such cases where the environment is fragile or high-risk, and a US based intermediary is necessary for financial management, funds are still directed to support the care done by local hospitals and doctors, and that is where the Foundation's primary oversight remains - the local medical teams themselves. ↗
- 2026-02-06 — Molina Healthcare: Ghosts of GEICO Past
"In 1974, however, GEICO started selling auto insurance to the public. With almost no actuarial experience, GEICO’s pricing was a guess and turned out to be too low. A frustratingly common problem in the insurance industry. This poorly informed underwriting dove-tailed with the high inflation environment and a new law forcing GEICO to take on high-risk drivers. The perfect storm sank GEICO in 1975 and into 1976, and ultimately provided the opportunity for Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to swoop in.
Buffett likes to say he bought GEICO three times – in 1951 as a student, in 1976 with Berkshire Hathaway, and 1996 when Berkshire Hathaway fully acquired GEICO. The whole saga is a testament to good analysis and patience.
With that, here in 2025, I present Molina Healthcare."
$MOH
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaeljburry/p/molina-healthcare-ghosts-of-geico?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ↗
See @michaeljburry on X →