TweetLens · posts from @VolIsDead no longer on X

What if I told you semis may never go back to previous highs. What would you do? (Probably meme into cybersecurity)

Gavin baker post views and interactions are probably the best indicator of whether ai derisking still may have legs

Tech momo worst dd since dotcom bubble, probably nothing there.

Can’t wait for the momo factor baskets to be health care and consumer staples

lot of UGGGGLY charts in tech momo.

All the semiconductor stocks becoming flaccidconductor stocks except GPUs and $TSM

With many trades, I think a rational question is “who is the incremental buyer here at this price”. Not that many people spend as much time on that question as they should.

Everyone wants a 30 percent drawdown in a consensus trade until they get a 30 percent drawdown in a consensus trade

To me, the market hasn’t started considering what a frontier lab pricing war implies for different sectors of the market.

It’s crazy how much time is currently being spent on memory. What are you, anon, going to have in terms of variant perception in an asset that likely has the most eyes on it of any technology theme atm?

Pray for your favorite Korean day 🇰🇷

I think people generally making a bit too much of a deal of the Ken Griffin commentary around longer duration risk taking.

Ken is a TAM value capture guy. He sees a huge chunk of global dollar returns this year coming from a very specific factor (AI Infrastructure/tech factor momo) that his current strategy was relatively underinvested in. He didn’t capture as much of the TAM as he wanted or is accustomed to. That means hiring guys who did. There is no strong long term view or read. When a business/strategy is successful he hires whoever is the best in the world at that strategy and compensates them through the nose for it to capture the full TAM of it in future years.

When the strategy struggles, either because of an industry wide alpha compression or his guys allocated to a strategy capturing less of the TAM as they should, he cuts them. There are no views in the model. He has no view on the long term mental model of investing, nor should he.

This is in no way what an option is. Which is why I’m bullish on Jane Street pnl into perpetuity

Are semis in July what gold miners were in March?

Covering last of semis shorts.

War back on front Vix future +.1v lol

$KORU gonna open flat from Feb 27th… some memory rally

What if the real bottlenecks were the friends we made along the way ?

Happy birthday to America. I’m grateful for the opportunity to be born in a country where success isn’t a function of your family name, the zip code you were born in, or the color of your skin. Excited to be a part of the next chapter of your history.

Views right now:

- Market will continue to gyrate around factors into mag7 eps. Market still extremely overweight semis, and $MU print does feel arguably like a local top with the follow on pressures from Apple and $MSFT making it clear that commodity (memory) inflation is a problem. At this point, hard to say that there’s any fix to it but any ‘cycle’ guy is worried that this is peak on peak. 86% margins in a commodity business isn’t sustainable.

- Mag7 likely has a bit of room to run into their prints. Positioning heavy in $ terms but they’ve clearly been the funders for many pods/HF capital. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an attempt at a real rally this month.

- other sectors are interesting again. Doesn’t seem like a hike in July is possible, so that pushes fed risk to September absent high prints. See room for some curve steepening = buy things like banks, healthcare (AI in biotech seems to be the trade du jour).

- With CL1 down, hated pockets like Europe, APAC ex Semis, and LatAm could have room to outperform again.

What my book looks like:
- short semis upside but buying delta on dips against
- long MAGS (less so META than the AI clouds)
- long EU

Tech broadly is trading 0 sum game at the moment because no one is willing to underwrite effectively MSD trillions of AI value capture by 2035)

Important for anyone who trades index I think. The only reason to trade the hypers is rapid ARR ramps from the labs supporting terminal AI TAM/TAM capture. Otherwise they’re blowing their load on capex taking all the risk at decreasing ROIC.

So hypers going limit down tomorrow?

Is GLM 5.2 a legitimate bear case?

JPY positioning is back to very short (long USDJPY). Don’t know if equity vols will have the same reaction as the short base is much smaller than Aug ‘24 but would be a fun environment to trade and try to make money

If the BOJ does an unscheduled hike I don’t think you even want to know what markets will do

Someone wake up some of the high profile hedge fund managers on here. The hyperscalers (best businesses in America as quoted by one of them) are continuing to get cheaper!

Don’t understand being bearish front end rates here.

Please for the love of god don’t let me get sucked into this thing again

Intelligence test for who you should follow. If they posted KOSPI limit down as if it was some new bearish signal you probably shouldn’t follow them. Futures/$EWY implied a limit down open (and more) on Friday

Pretty sure you don’t either. If you exercise an option it no longer has open interest. Also there’s no reason this guy would exercise this option (not optimal to early ex this thing). It’s very possible (and likely) that it’s hedged via short delta + short puts (to monetize the vol move).

Some quick high level thoughts on indices/macro.

1) SPX - analysts have underestimated broad index EPS growth for 8 straight quarters, the biggest forecast error 1Q 26. 1Y forward is the highest growth implied since ‘21, and we’re pricing 21x forward on that growth rate.

You could say this is rich. I don’t think it’s possible to ascertain rich or cheap without a view on AI Capex and its profitability. I believe we’re more likely to inflate than deflate, with the main watchpoints lab ARRs and hyperscaler spending. Supply is the other key question. We may see 500bn in EQ supply this year? Where does the money come from…

2) Rates - Warsh doesn’t want to hike but capex may force him to. Capex is inflationary in a shortage environment (components, raw materials etc). What is neutral in a world of capex > 2% of GDP? Trump may be able to limit headline inflation by giving up on tariffs (he doesn’t sound like it) and by fixing the energy impact to CPI by finishing the Iran conflict, but the possibility of cuts seems close to 0 for the next two years.

3) Favorite trades? This is probably going to surprise no one, but longs in AI capex beneficiaries (BtM, power semis, NVDA), banks (Japan, EU, US in that order), and shorts in rates sensitive pockets of the market. If you can trade hybrids, commodities higher + eq higher hybrids, especially with mid dated crude, are very attractive correlations. As are 10y rates higher, eq higher

Sold meta near the lows on Friday. The highest conviction view here is that we’re accelerating the capex cycle in ‘26 and ‘27. Think we’ll see 2.5T over those two years. Invest accordingly across assets.

Imagine if KOSPI closes green on Monday. Heads probably explode

Someone blowing up in the post on $MRVL?

So I guess the big question I have. If cost / GW is going up, and the hyperscalers are completely willing to pay it, how much pricing power do they have on the labs/AI compute users (inc SNOW/software now). It seems like cloud going to get a lot more expensive

Until we cover into eps again

Guess we’re supposed to short hyperscalers again

JFC why do I do this to myself

On hyperliquid all the bottleneck trades are up since Friday's close, if you believe this there's a huge amount of asymmetry to short there

NVDA 0d 215p from .02 to 3.70 in 9 minutes. Totally cool markets

$MDB don’t think I’ve seen a post weirder than that

This is hilarious as I bought meta today

To everyone wondering why $NVDA and $AVGO are lagging, just look at share of $NVDA eps as prop of total data center costs. Value semiconductor stock never the place to be in an upcycle

At what point will someone start making an openAI bull case on the fact that their $AMD warrants are now worth a shtton of money

$SATS feels like a v interesting situation here imo. On one hand if spaceX ipo prices high it trades at a big discount. On the other hand it’s an obvious funding vehicle if you’re long private shares and want to sell locked shares

Top 5 tweet of all time

Ha it’s unbelievable. “War is over maybe other things can rally”?? Kioxia +6, Rohm +7, Renesas +8… Nintendo -3 LOL

@ChillTrades Ha it would be hilarious if the trade out of this was arm +50 again

I’m such a pod monkey pm that I don’t know whether I make or lose money on Tuesday when I get back into the office if the war is over

Ok late night bill ackman-esque rant done

That doesn’t mean our current system is perfect. But to ban legal immigration is uniformly worse. Inequality can be fixed with other means, ensuring a shared cultural fabric can be ensured with other means. I’d rather have immigrants than be irrelevant in 50 years (see Europe).

One thing I don’t particularly understand about this nativist/anti-all forms of immigration community is why they don’t support a much higher tax rate on the wealthy. If the anti-legal immigration argument is that we’re bringing in wage slaves from third world, who benefits?

Will there ever be another America again?

Thinking about trying a GLP-1, what’s the best way to get started? 5’10 180 would like to lose 20 lbs and just try to see if this is a miracle drug. Figure no insurance coverage since I’m not obese.
@TMTLongShort you seem to be knowledgeable in this

Real kings would’ve sold him Codes

For all the “option wizards” here no one has mentioned the most important options flow in years in SPX.

$KWEB post market guy is gone

Feels like a gin martini and butter chicken and garlic naan kinda night

Hasn’t Rebecca Cheong been Rebecca Wrong since her excellent Covid calls?

Aaron Rai is so nails. Absolutely the clutch gene on that back nine

One thing that is interesting is the difference between Chinese and American coverage + public perception of AI. In China agentic (OpenClaw, Hermes) is viewed with such enthusiasm by younger people (1 person startup) vs US Gen Z (jobs are fuckt/perm underclass). Maybe a trade?

Thought experiment- where would $META trade if they spun out MSL as a public co with a licensing agreement giving them first access to any new model tech for use in $META products?

Nah I’m not long it I just find it very funny whoever decides it’s time to bid up an etf with very liquid underlyings from 4-7pm EST

Dude this KWEB post market getting ridiculous. Another +1.5% today

I mean I think I can answer this one based on the vol trades that didn’t work that suited a bearish environment:

-Long gamma (worst ever performance in march)
- short SPX skew to fund gamma (skew turbo steepened in small sell offs in q1)
- long implied corr (short ss/long spx)

$KWEB post market guy is back with a vengeance

Korea having its Icarus moment

lol back to red

Who is ripping $KWEB post market? Get some hobbies or buy $DRAM like everyone else

Who is ripping $KWEB post market. Get some hobbies or buy $DRAM

Lange and VC.

Knowing the history of Korean investors you’re supposed to full port $TSLA and $HIMS

lol $MU 800 on robinhood rn

Wrong

Think the most painful outcome for all people here is semis unchanged for 3m and bullshit space and punty nuclear shitcos to rally 100%

This honestly seems like they’re accepting. Don’t trade off these headlines but this sounds like “hey we accepted but this ain’t a surrender”

Whether you think that’s right or not is a question, but nothing really to me shows bubble. We’re back to debating what ‘27 - ‘28 capex trends and what steady state will look like and that’s pretty healthy.

Summary of bubble conversations:
- Those who were long semis last 45 days: no bubble
- Those who weren’t: bubble

My view: we moved from pricing peak cycle as H2 26-27 EPS (on trough multiple) to pushing peak further into H2 ‘27 to ‘28. This happened last year post lib day too.

Did you buy semiconductors today anon?

China tech is the bag of all bags.

Evercore pointed this out today. Think it’s still early but we’re going to have this debate for sure in q3

The beginning of the end.

If youre long 1k shares here buy 10 lots of this and you’re making an extra 200k at 1400 in 1.5months just risking capping your long at 1600 in June. Seems fairly logical to me if you’re already long…

We are giving you a free look for +3 to +36 in vol markets have fun

Another ludicrous bet. July 1x2 EWY 160/190 for $4 makes very little sense to me

Can’t believe I owned April 30s in this shit and didn’t roll em

Meta upside is cheap- 660/720
June 1x2 < 1% can’t say no to that

Imagine hating on someone because they had the ability to 1) raise a lot of money from really successful people, 2) structure a fund that allowed him to take a concentrated factor bet, and 3) be right (so far, which is all that counts in investing)

Tomorrow gonna be really weird in factor land

If capex is going higher next year than street broadly had, why would you buy $NVDA when you can buy micron/hynix/seagate

You’re absolutely not wrong but any semis pod is selling the shit out of NVDA to buy higher torque semis themes today.

I have a bad feeling I’m going to get rinsed tomorrow. Anyway, that’s tomorrows problem

(If)

If these hypers moves hold gonna feel a lot like 2025 innit

Look ma I made it

Well the labs can’t say they’re killing their largest customers out loud can they?

Story of earnings. Semis/BTM power fucking print, every thing else doesn’t.

Utility curve of money a big part of that

This cycle it’s likely Leopold tbh

All “legends” started by being very big in a trade that worked before converging on a higher sharpe distributions later on

It’s $POET ic. Maybe fundamentals do matter in this market

Is it just the market has moved on from one bottleneck to the next? Or are there legitimate concerns about some arch changes that will reduce memory load? SK Hynix at 4x NTM or 2x MS ‘27 seems a little silly?

Can someone who is smart at this please explain to me why memory stocks are still so cheap on an NTM basis versus every other pocket of semis?

Domino’s pizza on my birthday

Can we get a DJT “great quarter guys” on the call or Truth Social? $INTC

Might have to name my first kid Lip-Bu after that print

In the last year it feels like the market is finally realizing it’s easier to squeeze foreign stocks than US stocks

Vacheron Constantin, Parmigiani, ALS. At a lower price point JLC, Cartier, or IWC make great pieces.

“Diversifying the real asset portfolio”

Bought another watch today. Starting to become a problem…

This proxy is most definitely wrong considering the dollar weights vs factor weights in the two baskets. The last two weeks have been extremely positive hedge fund performance-wise (excluding today)

Jensen seems extremely defensive on the Dwarkesh podcast

This feels locally over. Short squeeze action not real risk deployment

Breaking from the strait content, if Li Haotong wins The Masters it would complete a true cucking for the US

https://youtube.com/shorts/5SEEC2CUVcM?si=tI3QpHrUjnXZSQ_N

This is my entire feed right now

Quick, post your post market IBKR screenshot!

April ‘25 ptsd is a cruel mistress for mr market

And before you tell me the large cap tech bros aren’t smart they obviously see the same opportunities in 1bn mkt cap semis but a 50% or 100% q in 250m of bloom energy or lumentum just isn’t large enough dollar pnl to offset the 15% loss on 5 yards of $META or $MSFT

All the losses at the big platforms are just based on how bad fixed income bros got hosed and macros too deep in the cookie jar in gold, Korea, and Japan

Funny with all the noise about equity L/S pod blowups seems like every factor neutral + systematic L/S shop keeps printing money.

Only ones getting hit are the large cap tech bros who have no choice but to run long hyperscalers, NVDA, and AVGO with the 70bn at 50% nets

What earnings are growing? If you can answer that one maybe a real bull market is possible

Interesting that the bill ackman portfolio keeps trading extremely negative rel market.

The spy/spx daily vol spread needs to adjust for trumps America

Know when u have edge and know when u don’t

I think risk management at every firm has done a good job from what I understand. Probably will be surprised for most how not bad this will end up being.

Insider trading is ruining markets

I love that the hack for trading GTC now for semis pod bros was sell day of and buy the opening print after #alpha

Ah sorry guys had to wait till 7:30 to unwind

Is it legit free money to buy cl1 at 3pm NY and sell at 7am?

hyperliquid making it seem like my pain trade is going to play out (-50bps in spooz). Let's see what the real people decide to do. Frankly I was really hoping to sell a TACO rally (as were most).

Think the max pain for professional investors on Monday is no taco and stocks -50bps

While I understand the hate, I would also think most every $SPX long would love to buy Anthro at 350b valuation

No fund (save BAM) catastrophically blew up on commodities. The main trades were European steepeners, front end vol shorts/duration longs in euribors/sofr strip, and 🇬🇧 RV in all forms). Nor was equity beta a main risk factor.

Everyone posting mmhf returns without understanding the carnage of European and UK fixed income markets is NGMI

Trump must have gotten really upset at MXWO>SPX

Get the hard hats on my friends

Am I bullish or is it just 60 degrees (17 in commie units) in New York?

When two of our largest (3-5bn gmv equivalent) guys are citing hyperliquid weekend markets crypto isn’t dead frnds

Hyperliquid getting a lot of attention last two weeks. All the tradfi pms need to know where their positions are over the weekend !

The way out is a prolonged war with boots on the ground. Whether that’s bearish or bullish I defer to the prognosticators

Hard hat kinda month

Did someone say STAG???

Pray for semis pods after this BESI move

Though I wonder what platform this is because it’s a lot of comms

Who needs captain condor when you have a vengeful fellow early 30s guy (I think?) punting 1000 lots of SPX

So far!

25k in 15mins

Today is a day to work not to predict 6pm opens on twitter. Where to defend, where to attack, wide distributions. This is the time to get paid.

Dang I really suck at making money this year.

Ex us vs us equities (denominated in usd) now 6% outperformance since the launch of ChatGPT

I’m on the bid for a single Rubin rack

Fuck I guess I need to cover some KOSPI upside vol shorts (don’t worry I have been long delta)

JFC Citrini is going to make more money than god off this article. Every single dealer chat is flagging Citrini as the source of the moves today. Incredible!

To be fair we’re a macro fund so everyone just jizzing themselves thinking about trading a non equity structural mega trend

@Citrini7 going viral what a king. CIO sent it to our entire office with [must read] tag.

Turns out that you could have just made your career being long knowledge atlas and minimax for 3 weeks

Everyone playing HK tech higher after holiday week getting rugged in real time

I think you all misunderstand what the right tail looks like. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Nice one. I took the L and stopped out.

If you’re trading Korean equities be aware that the implied vol of kospi2 is higher than any period outside of the worst of covid.

Becoming 100% @Citrini7 pilled. IPO oAI and Anthro now you cucks!

Did you fuckers really just bid UX 1.3v on silver going down???

Worst two day stretch in a very very long time. Onto the next one.

LME opening late tomorrow. Long week

On the flip side could he do this if he’s not going to blow this Q out of the water?

RT @volisdead: This is going to be a very big week

This is going to be a very big week

I don’t trade it, but crypto feels like it’s over over

Bull case for pawn shops - guys selling chains they bought 5y ago for below melt price since they don’t know the price of gold

Patriots lighten up into earnings they have no edge in

You either make chips or are entirely unrelated to technology to go up this year

Rieder for chair and it doesn’t matter what tariffs are. We’re going much higher

How’d I lose so much money today ? ( $HOOD is the answer)

Feels like at this rate the top names in the S&P are going to be gold miners, drone shitcos and spec SMR plays

$intc great day for patriots

Buy VG/sell ES

Can’t wait to take out 10% credit card loans to buy S&P 1x2 call ratios

Good day for patriots to build longs

I will never sell Korea again I will never sell Korea again

A little for my risk manager but a lot for me as a macro puntooor

I bought 2m of intel at 41 because I am a patriot

What if oAIs path to profitability is to be a RAM dealer???

I was curious why energy stocks were so well bid on Friday with crude lower. Guess we have our answer

Me opening this app after putting up +15bps on the day and seeing fields of green (thanks $META and $MSFT)

Has there ever been a shitter bank product than a double no touch? I have never seen anyone make money on those in my life

Infinite bankroll assumptions no good it seems. Happy holidays to all, next year will be a banger!

Merry Christmas everyone. I hope your juniors successfully pick off the sellside juniors to deliver alpha for Christmas !

SPX options at the front end are so incredibly low in vol

AMZN up this cannot be possible

In practice, Baly will hire the guy regardless :)

Doing the process of merging my wife’s accounts with mine and realized she’s been 50-70% in cash in a checking account for the last 3 years and just automaxes her 401k and doesn’t invest anything else. Maybe I’m not long enough $XLF

Secret- inherit 8 figures and roll long spooz every quarter for 17 years in a bull market

Bear market until proven innocent

Favorite market stat: since the day ChatGPT launched European banks have outperformed US semiconductors in the largest capex cycle in history

Topped with Sam in early November

Maybe unpopular opinion but think the AI capex cycle as a generalist trade is over (can’t buy MSXXAI and blanket make alpha)

Oracle said they are spending more for less revenue in the next 6mo. How do you not ascribe same to other clouds (and not discount infra names?)

That’s the easiest NQ short in your lifetime

$AGX puke back to…. Last months level

Interesting thread. At first I thought he was describing the man with the tree as Jensen which makes me quite concerned about my own cognitive biases

When you have haters you know you’ve made it. Trade your own book but the research itself is way better than anything else i subscribe to (and sell side)

Jfc Googl 330 in post

Shitcos eating good today. Deriskers on Thursday/Friday in fringe AI probably hurling into a trash can next to their desks. Season of the witch 🧙

No surprises here - sadly not in Switzerland or Singapore though

No one wants Vega, v interesting

Ramps and drops innit

I’m back mother fuckerssssss

Ok I think they sold 3

I’m going out on a limb here. I think $NVDA sold at least one GPU this quarter

Was a proud owner of Googl Friday 295c that I didn’t sell a single unit of delta against

Well it got harder

@DeepDishEnjoyer sometimes trading is easy

Can only stick save the 50d so many times can you?

This seems worthy of taxpayer support

If you ask me my next week views, I got absolutely none. It do be like that some times.

Feels like this week was an absolute knife fight. Finished the week almost literally flat in pnl but feel like I wanted to hurl myself out the window twice a day.

Buffett buying $GOOG, what bubble?

Oh China tech doing what China tech does.

Ah forgot to add $FNMA

Pretty incredible how correlated the trump narrative trades (rare earths, nuclear, bitcoin, drones) are on the way down. Really gives “everyone all in on one trade” kinda vibes

Are we shorting everything?

I wish I’d gone short instead of just unwinding longs

With a 3m look forward view to that claim

Yeah I’m not saying I’m bearish spooz. Just ai alpha vs NQ/ES is dead

Gasp gasp gasp

What if the real Santa rally was in European equities?

Gasp gasp gasp

Feels like the AI trade is still gasping for air here

Huge fan of Kimi K2

Another reminder

Did Jensen just say to be long $KWEB?

Pretty incredible negative sharpe in buying rare earths and lightening AI longs on Friday

“macro” equity trades I still have conviction on:

- Nat gas infra longs
- Rare earth minerals longs
- AI Power (though this was my largest long and as such focus of the trim)

Last week of the year completed.

Risked down to 40% of VaR, de-grossed and cut net down 20%.

I’m quite surprised the rare earth metals company drawdowns haven’t been closed so far. Clear strategic priority for the west. More deals incoming - feels like layup long if you can warehouse the VaR usage

What a print for the nothing ever happens portfolio

It would be hilarious if JPow’s middle finger to trump marked the highs in equities. I don’t trade equities off the Fed but it would be cruelly ironic

If you see a Blackwell China order, literally a single chip, you should be max long AI infra.

Kinda insane that Jensen fudged that guide communication

Picked a good day to buy GSHFVIP

Rumor mill that DC will buy GPUs from $NVDA and why Jensen is in DC

At some point AI infra/semis/memory can’t go up every day right?

Imagine posting widener as your best example of good Harvard architecture.

Think this is the last trading week of the year personally. Let’s make it count :)

Liquidation nation took a new prisoner today (me)

$AMZN can’t buy a win

The intraday chart of month end 6000p in SPX tells you all you need to know about today

Sell puts live wear diamonds, that’s the saying right?

Certainly to me feels like the market has topped locally. Mag7 trades like dogshit and stopouts defo happened in LS. Either we buy the generals or we sell off in the next couple weeks

Someone hold me back before I go full @DeepDishEnjoyer on this mofo

RT @volisdead: The funniest timeline from this rare earth tariff drama will be retail flow meme stocks outperforming again bc bitcoin miners and open door don’t have tariff sensitivity

If you get this joke dm me we should be actual friends

i thought this joke was insanely clever but i have a niche sense of humor it seems

Jr. Options Trader question - what do these trades and a Thursday night with colleagues visiting from London to your NYC office have in common?

I really wanted Chinese for dinner but I guess I’m stuck eating tacos :(

The funniest timeline from this rare earth tariff drama will be retail flow meme stocks outperforming again bc bitcoin miners and open door don’t have tariff sensitivity

Ramps and drops along the way innit

Can’t wait for @JaredKubin’s summary of today. Murder on the dance floor

-70bps of alpha today for me 🙏

NFA, but just bought 6675/6325 month end 1x2 ps

DB macro conference is the most bullish I’ve ever seen macro guys on stocks. Do with that information what you will

I’ve been quiet here but that’s the tweet

Think $NVDA trades 250 this year

Oh man the day just keeps getting better. First comment on the desk is my risk guy asking me to check my +5 slide…

If you’re wondering where we are in the cycle my uber driver to work today asked me if I’d read Situational Awareness

RT @volisdead: Just saying this Friday KWEB vols are 23 and the big boys are on holiday and it’s a bull market

Welcome to the AI bubble. Let's see how much it goes.

Rotation trade getting even nastier in APAC. Good luck out there

The greatest secular trade is long human laziness. Energy is costly, our bodies wish to conserve it where possible.

$DASH, $UBER, $META all examples of this.

Today’s factor moves, captured on Oura ring

Just saying this Friday KWEB vols are 23 and the big boys are on holiday and it’s a bull market

$NVDA king has retaking the crown

The annual tradition of freaking out about Japanese index prices and realizing it’s just their stupid ex dates

Imagine thinking futures could open down, this is America!

imagine betting against nothing ever happening...

Thank you for your service buying puts at the lows

Does anyone else read this as bearish capex?

Thanks for playing people!

I got so many puts to sell this guy

Feel like I’m @TimTheMM with how many puts I’m short. Come get em

This was the top lol

The AppLovin sharpe ratio over the last month is approaching infinity

It’s the time of the market astrology cycle for everyone to bring up a certain JPM product @sdav1986

That being said, the OG speech was in December 1996 and we all know what happened after.

When Colin speaks, you probably should pay attention.

Me whenever I trade short risk

I’m once again reminding you that AppLovin is the best stock in the world

First they came for my AI semis, now my JP Banks. Curse you market gods!

Except for the whole China tech thing which has been fun

Today the market feels like is very specifically attacking my book

Sigh, suppose it’s up only again

Prescient advice @sdav1986 to not be short sep or oct vix

Oh, looks like everyone’s PAs up 400% this year (cries in 0 net fund seat)

DeepSeek 2.0 ongoing?

3 trn of datacenter capex or low rates Donnie, gotta choose one

These $ORCL numbers are astonishing

Ba da da da da, AppLovin it

Hock Tan and spit on that thang $AVGO

What’s a job, investing your capital is the future (Vlad Tenev)

back to ATH into NFP!

Yikes China equities. When will regulators learn that regulation for a stable bull market = people are going to sell your stocks? Dumped all my onshore index longs and rotated to H shares (because you can defend valuations/growth)

I don’t know why I’m happier about small PA gains than significantly more wealth accretive work gains but I am

See you in the SPX this Friday

The Japanese are panicking like they have never seen yields go up 3 bps before

The prince that was promised

Come on macro bears you can do better than this

It's very fun watching price action when US investors are out. Clear macro is at the wheel trading curve steeper, precious higher, and doing their best to sell US equities (though their flows are baby size as hard as they try)

Semi-seriously considering a move to Singapore or HK in the next two years. What’s the reason not to? (Would be through my current employer but moving offices)

CFB is back baby!

$GOOGL, $MUFG, $TCEHY in that order would be my choice in PA if I had to hold for 5 years.

$APP, $BABA, $AMZN next tier

- Brazil 🇧🇷 worth noticing. Been a long time since we’ve seen so much bullish equity flow. Value trap? Or 2026 macro dream trade with a rightward political shift. When 100s of thousands of lots in bullish structures have traded in the last week worth a look

- broader market will become increasingly sensitive to data showing that the US economy is slowing (not saying that it is) vs CPI/PPI prints. Cyclicals screaming higher say adjustment cuts party goes on, but into Q4 post NFP revisions, firmly of the opinion bad will trade as bad

For every winner there is a loser. This week, I happen to be a loser. See you next week and enjoy the long weekend!

Prayers for @doomerzoomer. Wants to be long China Tech, doesn’t buy $BABA and buys $PDD instead. Sorry little bro

The one man who can save the market today

You: “Seasonality”
Me: Donald Trump is not going to let us go into the weekend without stocks at ATH so he can get his Labor Day celebratory tweet out there

They stopped! Testicular torsion avoided

Ok dn have been rotated enough pls stop

But replace fetch with rotation

QQQ gamma too 🤮🤮🤮

Owning gamma was such a trap…

Seems like it’s over

I am not as good at writing as @blondesnmoney

BREAKING: Jerome Powell fired for torrenting Rihanna’s “Umbrella” from limewire in 2008.

Doge consultant and Head of Macro, James 🐠🔙 on Fox News was critical of the Federal Reserve Chair- “Do the crime, do the time. Powell is unfit for duty”

Out 23450. Small L but it’s fine

Idk if America is trying to look like China kinda feels like you should be long more China?

Yes, because of course if I knew something was happening I’d lift the fucking longest dated option with the least gamma and delta per unit premium.

I’m long a bunch of sht so it’s a 12hr hedge

Small spec short NQ 23400. Can’t see how Europe doesn’t come in and panic at the disco

The goog broke out ?

Did $PDD report earnings today or something?

Anna trying to bring her old nickname back!

The vacation come down is real. I'm excited to work but dopamine levels are like 0/100 at the moment

Why I like selling rates vol.

K-Pop Demon Hunters is crazy. As a millennial kind of insane an animated girl group is dominating music charts. Takes me back to Gorillaz (dating myself lol)

Maybe pinching myself a bit today…. But shooters shoot.

There’s a small hint of sarcasm in this… I am long a decent bit in PA.

AppLovin is the best stock in the world

Overall- long GOOG, long SPX gamma, short VIX (via roll stuff), long China, long UK. Not really long broad market US equities last month or so, think there are better horses atm.

Okay, as i sit in the airport thought it was time for an update.

17/15 1x2 VIX PS for Aug were great, running same trade for Sep, partially financed my long gamma bias

Jackson hole is irrelevant to me. Only matters if he pivots dovish (he won’t).

Come on Judge Mehta let me win one please!

Honestly the opposite of my experience. The most spendy of my friends are in Mag7 tech.

Going from 100% max long at 5350 to 75% long

China is ripping. Selling small into it but still think HSTECH 6k before Sep end

Another vacation markets observation (somewhat itching to get back to it)- we’re seeing the exact rate market price action that should be supportive momo/tech >>, yet the factor still trades very heavy. Legacy risk unwind or new regime?

What happened recently that made everyone so focused on the "trough of disillusionment" with AI all of a sudden? GPT5 being a disappointment? Every 3 months it feels like we go back to the "how can we justify so much capex" discussion before a hyperscaler increases spend.

Seems like no one likes the ramps and drops along the way.

Nothing like traveling to a really nice place to motivate you to push harder in your career because you realize how relatively poor you are.

Ok the market got it. Thanks for letting me buy sub 400 🙏

Like if you actually trust the numbers, it’s the most bullish AI case in the world

So these semi tariffs are basically just further fcking small caps at the expense of large cap/AI adjacent?

AppLovin is the funniest large-ish cap stock in the world

I support this

Target 6k

back to long HSTECH

RIP UX1, 8/1 - 8/4

Consensus equity views flipped bearish fast. Hmmm.

I don’t know if my feed has just gotten worse because I’ve gotten worse or whether this app is just descending further into the darkness

Watched margin call again tonight in honor of a down 1.5% day with VIX > 20

Occasionally nail it. Covered ES 6260

@WFHWalter Down

Weird feeling that this ends tomorrow

Market is tired.

May or may not have burnt a lot of capital buying upside today

Random day… “let’s unwind the booooook” in semis

My dude goes max long China tech ahead of a 10% breakout in AI heavyweights while HSTECH draws 5%.

Put the shovel down! Best lesson in macro.

1-4 all good, maybe I shouldn’t trade FX

Covered HSTECH short, thanks for riding with me!

Imagine being bullish Chinese equities…

Using drift before u haters hate on me

Officially the lowest 2w close to close realized vol in spooz since 2019

Generally best scenario in us is current dynamic continuing (rallies 1-3pct/mo) or an actual correction. Also forgot long Japanese banks in macro

Vol:

Short UX1 in various limited loss formats

Skew calendars (short 2-3m, long shorter dated)

Long 2yish Vega

Quick book review:

Macro/crappy CTA book

1) small short HSTECH against a few single names (mainly onshore robotics focused)

2) long NQ

3) long FTSE

4) short NIFTY

5) short USD short USD downside vol

Mini trade, target 5% drawdown

Back to short $HSTECH for the next two weeks

Intel can’t squeeze so rally on

Good morning my Japanese bank enthusiasts @blondesnmoney

Are these past few weeks a structural threat to the fast money 5% stops business model in long short equity? Or is it just the typical quant model once every couple year explosion?

everyone just chilling while us PGM power goes offerless and China is building a 1.2trn RMB dam. Power is the bottleneck and the US needs more spend. What's the trade? (outside NRG, TLN, CEG, GEV etc, Ercot Forwards)

(SXAP, Energy vs Fiscal/Electrification/Banks)

JP momo getting smoked. Going to be a fun open for consensus risk in EU…

Call me weird but I think google beats handsomely tomorrow and we get new QQQ highs by Friday

Sometimes the memes write themselves

Taking my ball and going home for the next week. No strong macro trades on for me but long a bit of gold and a bit of es vs rty

Well looking at the EUR I’m glad i prepaid my hotels!

Decided to fuck off to the Greek islands for the month of August. Paros/Milos/Santorini for 2 weeks. If anyone has recs for a semi reasonable budget (like 1k US/day for 2ppl)

General viewpoint: @stevehou generally gets it right. Things are going to get weird soon. Risk to that view is tariff left tail.

Honestly thinking about punting longs in Pulte group because only the dumbest trades make money this year

我爱中国

It’s on like Donkey Kong

3500x today 6300c lifted just now

I currently am as inspired as a soggy napkin

Oh god sell everything

Feels like we’re building another wall of worry

My unwind is your PnL :)

Sorry for dunking on China tech everyone

lol that China tech stocks still can’t stage a real rally

I mean, $180 should trade tomorrow if this is real ($NVDA indicating it is)

Um $NVDA selling H20s again to China?

Lowest inspiration point for me since lib day. Have basically no trades I’m in love with.

Donkey learns about boxes

Smells vaguely like off brand dollar store taco seasoning tonight

Call me crazy, but i think QQQ makes new highs tomorrow

$MSOS flashing red on the rallies

I’m once again going to dunk on China tech. Imagine the entire property sector rallying 8% and you doing nothing (looking at you $JD)

HSTECH will never go up again

Brazil 5x lib day tariff. Can’t wait for +3% tomorrow in spooz

Once again reminded to never own China

This market trades like everyone is short

Imagine owning a bond

Fuck

If you didn’t sell UX1 on Independence Day are you truly American ?🇺🇸

This week was rough, on to the next! Happy Independence Day fellow patriots!

Did I do it? No… horrifying negative alpha week

0dte calls were way too cheap. Post print ES 6300 was 3.9

feels like this would be a print that would have ripped NQ 1.5% a month ago

China tech legitimately cannot rally

Really testing my strike innit

Egg meet face

Totally deletable take if I’m wrong, but SPX > 50bps tomorrow

lol $XHB

Long $XBI gamma

Pour one out for momentum oriented traders

When will quarter end mark ups mark up the shit I own?

@sdav1986 Worst trades:
1) Chasing front end rate cuts trade in May/June
2) Long dividends into liberation day
3) Anytime I try to trade crude vol

3) short US$
4) short VIX puts (same reason as @sdav1986 )
5) buying US AI/China tech post liberation day

In the spirit of @sdav1986 what were the trades that were good this year.

1) Korea - spot up vol up is my favorite dynamic to trade.

2) Long SPX gamma the Friday after liberation Thursday. This was a crazy misprice and allowed me to not blow up on some other risk

Is this bullish ?

AI power is one of the most consensus trades in markets right now. Mind the gap.

Closed all long ES vs VG. Fun counter trend trade

Even $NKE is going up my god

The rally ends when $MSOS goes up. Sorry I don’t make the rules

Sucks if we go 1-2% lower

Best case for your trade is we rally 3% in the next 2 weeks or blow up

Roll makes the straddles great, gamma I think easy to carry around ATHs and kills the real tail. Size to make pnl in big vol spike even with extreme spot/vol corr

Selling the sht out of VIX July 17.5 straddles to buy SPX gamma

Man, this Zohran thing just makes me salivate about the index vol opportunity set in 2028 when AOC is the dem nominee.

So with MU beat is Korea going to gap 3% while none of you own it again?

Traded my first SPX 7K strike today!

Higher confidence now

It has been impossible to be long enough Korea. What a ridiculous sharpe trade

So many things are a function of this (populism/shtco gambling/crypto/tik tok) so let’s not pretend it’s some crazy stat. You’re a bloody VC shouldn’t you understand secular trends?

2/3rds of my college friend group still has a net worth < a down payment and sees no path to home ownership before 45 despite generally doing things “right” (including doctors/lawyers). Those who aren’t in that group either sampled right tails (HF/startup) or were born rich

I’m private so he won’t see this. But this is just another symptom of backlash against further bifurcation of haves and have nots. No easy path for the vast majority of have nots to become haves. Cuomo just carrying the areas where crime is a major concern (or Israel)

Generational 0DTE day

If Asian market performance is to be believed prepare for another ripping $CRCL rally sorry @nope_its_lily

If this was me I would just play fast and pickup. I’d give a year of income to just walk the course haha. Also definitely venmoing him to get me some ANGC merch of course

Friend of mine in an enviable but semi hard situation. He’s a 23 handicap but got a look to play Augusta with a member and a couple D1 college guys in the late fall. They’re all scratch or better obviously. What’s the best way (if you have a 9-5 on weekdays) to not look awful?

Thsnk you for your attention to this matter!

Reopen the Markets!

Holderness & Bourne polos are definitely the best polos for golf

I should start a 0dte iron condor ETF

Why is no one talking about Korea going up every day? Seems like Abenomics 2.0

Added to China tech, maxed out VaR. Pray for me friends

Murdered

My gut kinda tells me to be short US equities post opex but I’ve made money on the short side maybe 3x in my life so I should probably just be flat

They are too late.

Outside of me being max long of course

any reason China tech is getting absolutely wrecked?

If the US can grow real GDP at 3.1% annualized for the next 10y (Coatue Deck)….

Are we running it back again?

You would think that everyone is all over the “if market goes up buy the shittiest of the shitty shitcos” but here we are again

Still extremely long HSTECH

Apparently nothing ever happens

Anyone with good recs for a performance coach/career coach in NY?

Friendly reminder to not overreact to headlines. I know I’m not going to be punting spooz on Sunday night

Seems like a lot of allocators won’t be happy overweight EU equities vs US this week. Energy independence is hugely important

It’s a nice convo as someone who also trades vol for a living. The trade is reasonable and timing actionable and (currently) very profitable. At the same time the original post also has merit. Didn’t cost much to buy back the 50c and just not blow up if you’re “too right” on ww3

Feel really gross having a lot of long convexity over the weekend. Don’t know how u tail hedge guys live with it. I must be allergic to negative carry

this was close to the literal top tick in my pl long gamma and long delta overnight.

That was some stop out in UX1 overnight on that ramp to 22.7

Out

The fact that fixed income isn’t doing anything is insane and tells you how broken the US bond market is

Just got scolded for not taking enough risk, 2m after being criticized for taking too much risk. Never enough when you’re making money and always way too much when you’re the wrong way…

1-2m Vega positioning is quite offsides imo, relative to everyone owning a good amount of gamma

Long VIX long stocks again