This reader needs JavaScript for search, threads and tags. Recent tweets from @VolIsDead:
- 2026-10-17 — This is an accurate description of the current state of the technology, but what causes the normies described below to purchase subscriptions? For businesses coding is effectively 100% penetrated and the white collar replacement thesis hasn’t played out yet. Who bridges the gap? ↗
- 2026-10-17 — Good news, collar is up pnl, bad news my portfolio is still down pnl ↗
- 2026-10-16 — People get too fascinated by blow ups. There are blow ups every day. Some pod monkey is out of a job every week. You’re better off focusing on learning how to make money than thinking about other people. The PvP nature of markets at the largest size level doesn’t matter to you ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Feels like March a bit in index land, let’s see whether that’s correct ↗
- 2026-10-16 — The Roundhill "in memory" ETF continuing to struggle. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Anthro + SPCX have created a lot of "wealth" that needs public markets liquidity. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — The PPT out in full force today ↗
- 2026-10-15 — My one financially responsible trait is still leaving the avoid tolls button checked in Google Maps ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Had an $EWY alert at 150 go off this morning. Gonna wait a bit for that one, probably better off buying it if it goes up a little than now. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — probably a good time to buy a couple bonds. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Today we pray for the country of South Korea ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Buying some semis and memory, short covers after everyone called capitulation yesterday. May even go long ↗
- 2026-10-12 — Getting the itch to trade which means I really should just do nothing ↗
- 2026-10-10 — There are many people who unironically think this year hasn’t been a good year for the market so far ↗
- 2026-10-09 — I feel like every first year TMT analyst I've ever met says to short AAPL because it meets all the criteria for an ideal funding short (where does growth come from, deeply liquid, no right tail catalyst at these levels) and I have never made a dime being short AAPL. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Okay let’s do the usual then.
October through early November and midterms everyone sells rallies to protect their bonuses and banks derisk. November through Jan we have a ripping rally from EPS. We stall in Feb ahead of a manufactured crisis, which we recover from into Q2. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Not a political post, just a market post to be clear…. I dont vote based on 3-6m market forecasting lol ↗
- 2026-10-07 — If republicans lose midterms I think we can have a real equity drawdown. I am usually permabull but collared a lot of my equities for the first time since 2022. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — Incredible that Mr. ghalibaf is referring to hyperscaler FCF. Maybe he’s long software ↗
- 2026-10-05 — Honestly a really small move in USDBRL. Tells you where the election trade crowding was ↗
- 2026-10-05 — Ah time for all the semiconductor supply chain experts to become Brazil election experts ↗
- 2026-09-29 — I know it’s cool to say equity guys have big drawdowns but the buyers of AT0000A2HLC4 kinda fucked up too.
Bond guys had a 30 year secular bull to trade and now equity guys are in decade 2 of theirs. One day the bond guys can laugh at the equity guys again… ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Most “please hike rates” moment today, went to a VC boutique and was quoted 5 year wait for an overseas. Insanity… ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Also the Feb response to the Citrini piece on job displacement… 10s sub 4%! ↗
- 2026-09-29 — “I’m the house now” has aged gloriously ↗
- 2026-09-28 — $GOOGL and chill gents... ↗
- 2026-09-25 — "there are bonds in the stocks" yes unfortunately earnings are growing 30% year over year so your multiple compression argument has a lot of negative theta. ↗
- 2026-09-25 — Sorry someone dm’d me this and it’s accurate: equities = earnings revisions + multiple mean reversion and that makes sense ↗
- 2026-09-25 — 1) if you disagree and your strat has no beta to any of the below someone will hire you (and integrate your alpha for a sweet 2 years of income). Equity people there’s probably more to your fantastic sector expertise but likely an etf spread is close enough. ↗
- 2026-09-25 — Hard HF truth, most people are just beta. Rates RV = steepener + carry beta, credit = short vol / new issue beta, equities = QQQ>SPY+ IPO beta Commodities = F0/F3 + congestion beta. Vol = disp + SPX vol skew + term structure beta. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ↗
- 2026-09-24 — Did you come out of the womb passionate about making markets more efficient? Fuck no, but if you can get a job at JS paying you 750k out of undergrad and then just pivot to whatever becomes cool that excites you in two years, sure ofc you can because you signalmaxxed ↗
- 2026-09-24 — It’s always my advice to any college student interested in maximizing median outcome. The right tail outcomes almost never come from taking lower risk paths, but if you don’t know what you want to do and just want to make money, try to get the job that everyone else wants. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — College students are the ultimate momo traders since they get disproportionately rewarded for it. If you go into banking and get a job at GS TMT is the best job the next 5 years could be a banking down cycle but future employers/paths will give you credit for signalmaxxing ↗
- 2026-09-24 — To date myself, I was at the tail end of the time everyone was obsessed with distressed credit and King St/York/Baupost etc were the dream shops and the start of when Tiger/Coatue/Crossovers where the dream shops. It was before finance lost to tech for top talent (clear now) ↗
- 2026-09-24 — The best way to check what the “best” time to start in an industry was is to look at the most desired job today from top tier uni stem undergrads and have started in that career 3-5 years ago. E.g. quant traders/AI devs/pod monkeys today (vs IB/PE/big tech) when I graduated ↗
- 2026-09-24 — 2012-13 was the optimal graduating year in finance. Starting gaining responsibility/PL ownership in the Mag7 cloud easy mode years, monetized 2020-21 at age where that was a 7-8 figure paycheck. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Sentiment check ↗
- 2026-09-18 — This is basically a simplified version of the 7-10 YOE VP/Director level trader buyside decision matrix ↗
- 2026-09-18 — If you had a job that paid you 1mm/y w 150k sd comp, would you take a job that pays 2mm/y with 1.5mm sd (floored at 250k)? What if the next job | on 250k floor = 400k perp? ↗
- 2026-09-17 — 6) outside of realized percentiles, implied percentiles, and recent gamma/theta carry, how would you assess whether a long or short volatility position is attractive? What are some factors you would consider? ↗
- 2026-09-17 — 5) if you are short a Vix future and long a calendar of spx atm options (gamma neutral, long b.s. vega/rt Vega) with matched maturities such that the entire trade is Vega neutral, what risk are you taking? How would you assess the quality of this trade? ↗
- 2026-09-17 — 4) If you were a market maker in single stock options, rank these options on where you would be the “widest” in vol terms? 1) 1m 5dp, 2) 1m ATM, 3) 1y 5dp, 4) 1y 5dc, 5) 1y ATM
Why? ↗
- 2026-09-17 — 3) if you are long a 1m 25d risk reversal in SPX, delta and gamma neutral and the market sells off 1 daily sd, what will be the primary driver of your pnl (which Greek)?
a) if fixed strike vol is unchanged, did you make or lose money?
b) a) but fixed moneyness vol? ↗
- 2026-09-17 — Option trader interview question thread:
1) What is the variance swap basis? What sign is it typically? Why? Is there a term structure to this basis? If so, why?
2) what point on the spx skew is usually the lowest implied volatility? Why is that the case? ↗
- 2026-09-14 — $GOOG and chill ↗
- 2026-09-10 — Practical implications - 1) discount forward earnings aggressively in personal finance/lifestyle calcs, 2) have self compassion in bad times as you're not alone (part of the model) 3) have a supportive partner who is willing to weather comp volatility, 4) be grateful ↗
- 2026-09-10 — BD and media always love talking about the outliers (the 9 fig guarantees, the $1b pnls, etc.) but it ends up looking a lot like an MLB salary table. You sign up for it because you think you're Shohei Ohtani, but more than likely you're in AA for a few years before moving on. ↗
- 2026-09-10 — Hard-hitting truth. ~30% of pods end up down in a given year (most of them small). There has also been dilution of the PM title so "PM" can mean $100m sleeve where in a good year you're paid 1m or a $3b book with 10 people where in a good year the PM takes home mid 8 figures. ↗
- 2026-09-09 — anyone have one of those instinct invites.... ↗
- 2026-09-04 — As a follow up, there aren’t many people out there that fit that bill rel capital out there (and they all will generally command >5mm up front) so generally there’s appetite to take people who meet 1-2 of the 3 either post blowout, into pm development programs, or as sub pm’s. ↗
- 2026-09-04 — Generally agree but 3 daily sharpe is way too high in discretionary macro (my world). If I define successful trader as “will get full PM offers at top mm hedge funds”, would define it as 1.5 sharpe, min 3y track, individual year scaling proof to 30+mm without performance decay ↗
- 2026-09-03 — Bought a macan s CPO 10/10 would recommend to a friend ↗
- 2026-09-02 — bought an old macbook pro with m1 max and 64gb ram to mess around with ollama and on-device AI. Any ideas on where to begin? (come from math-y background but never have really done much coding outside of basic data science work/regressions/python dashboards) ↗
- 2026-09-02 — Legitimately feels like absolutely nothing has changed in equity markets in the last month, extremely boring period. ↗
- 2026-08-27 — Ah the hyperscalers.... here we go again ? ↗
- 2026-08-18 — Unless you are trading the Dec30 RUT stuff to offlay autocalls. ↗
- 2026-08-18 — What a silly take. Flex options are as liquid as regular listed strikes. ↗
- 2026-08-18 — Yesterday was a good day to sell. ↗
- 2026-08-17 — Goddammit I’m never going to afford a place in westchester am I ↗
- 2026-08-17 — Oh look hyperscalers are down and semis are ripping again. Wonder how that worked out last time? ↗
- 2026-08-12 — Gonna be a stupid bid for <15 person seminars ↗
- 2026-08-09 — Gm ↗
- 2026-08-07 — Does anyone have a good analysis of expected timeline of the boomer wealth transfer in the US? ↗
- 2026-08-07 — Why do we have to nuke $USDJPY when I fly to Japan in a week... ↗
- 2026-07-18 — What if I told you semis may never go back to previous highs. What would you do? (Probably meme into cybersecurity) ↗
- 2026-07-17 — Gavin baker post views and interactions are probably the best indicator of whether ai derisking still may have legs ↗
- 2026-07-16 — Tech momo worst dd since dotcom bubble, probably nothing there. ↗
- 2026-07-16 — Can’t wait for the momo factor baskets to be health care and consumer staples ↗
- 2026-07-16 — lot of UGGGGLY charts in tech momo. ↗
- 2026-07-16 — All the semiconductor stocks becoming flaccidconductor stocks except GPUs and $TSM ↗
- 2026-07-15 — With many trades, I think a rational question is “who is the incremental buyer here at this price”. Not that many people spend as much time on that question as they should. ↗
- 2026-07-15 — Everyone wants a 30 percent drawdown in a consensus trade until they get a 30 percent drawdown in a consensus trade ↗
- 2026-07-15 — To me, the market hasn’t started considering what a frontier lab pricing war implies for different sectors of the market. ↗
- 2026-07-15 — It’s crazy how much time is currently being spent on memory. What are you, anon, going to have in terms of variant perception in an asset that likely has the most eyes on it of any technology theme atm? ↗
- 2026-07-14 — Pray for your favorite Korean day 🇰🇷 ↗
- 2026-07-13 — I think people generally making a bit too much of a deal of the Ken Griffin commentary around longer duration risk taking.
Ken is a TAM value capture guy. He sees a huge chunk of global dollar returns this year coming from a very specific factor (AI Infrastructure/tech factor momo) that his current strategy was relatively underinvested in. He didn’t capture as much of the TAM as he wanted or is accustomed to. That means hiring guys who did. There is no strong long term view or read. When a business/strategy is successful he hires whoever is the best in the world at that strategy and compensates them through the nose for it to capture the full TAM of it in future years.
When the strategy struggles, either because of an industry wide alpha compression or his guys allocated to a strategy capturing less of the TAM as they should, he cuts them. There are no views in the model. He has no view on the long term mental model of investing, nor should he. ↗
- 2026-07-13 — This is in no way what an option is. Which is why I’m bullish on Jane Street pnl into perpetuity ↗
- 2026-07-13 — Are semis in July what gold miners were in March? ↗
- 2026-07-13 — Covering last of semis shorts. ↗
- 2026-07-07 — War back on front Vix future +.1v lol ↗
- 2026-07-07 — $KORU gonna open flat from Feb 27th… some memory rally ↗
- 2026-07-07 — What if the real bottlenecks were the friends we made along the way ? ↗
- 2026-07-05 — Happy birthday to America. I’m grateful for the opportunity to be born in a country where success isn’t a function of your family name, the zip code you were born in, or the color of your skin. Excited to be a part of the next chapter of your history. ↗
- 2026-07-04 — Views right now:
- Market will continue to gyrate around factors into mag7 eps. Market still extremely overweight semis, and $MU print does feel arguably like a local top with the follow on pressures from Apple and $MSFT making it clear that commodity (memory) inflation is a problem. At this point, hard to say that there’s any fix to it but any ‘cycle’ guy is worried that this is peak on peak. 86% margins in a commodity business isn’t sustainable.
- Mag7 likely has a bit of room to run into their prints. Positioning heavy in $ terms but they’ve clearly been the funders for many pods/HF capital. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an attempt at a real rally this month.
- other sectors are interesting again. Doesn’t seem like a hike in July is possible, so that pushes fed risk to September absent high prints. See room for some curve steepening = buy things like banks, healthcare (AI in biotech seems to be the trade du jour).
- With CL1 down, hated pockets like Europe, APAC ex Semis, and LatAm could have room to outperform again.
What my book looks like:
- short semis upside but buying delta on dips against
- long MAGS (less so META than the AI clouds)
- long EU ↗
- 2026-06-24 — Tech broadly is trading 0 sum game at the moment because no one is willing to underwrite effectively MSD trillions of AI value capture by 2035) ↗
- 2026-06-24 — Important for anyone who trades index I think. The only reason to trade the hypers is rapid ARR ramps from the labs supporting terminal AI TAM/TAM capture. Otherwise they’re blowing their load on capex taking all the risk at decreasing ROIC. ↗
- 2026-06-24 — So hypers going limit down tomorrow? ↗
- 2026-06-23 — Is GLM 5.2 a legitimate bear case? ↗
- 2026-06-18 — JPY positioning is back to very short (long USDJPY). Don’t know if equity vols will have the same reaction as the short base is much smaller than Aug ‘24 but would be a fun environment to trade and try to make money ↗
- 2026-06-18 — If the BOJ does an unscheduled hike I don’t think you even want to know what markets will do ↗
- 2026-06-17 — Someone wake up some of the high profile hedge fund managers on here. The hyperscalers (best businesses in America as quoted by one of them) are continuing to get cheaper! ↗
- 2026-06-17 — Don’t understand being bearish front end rates here. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Please for the love of god don’t let me get sucked into this thing again ↗
- 2026-06-08 — Intelligence test for who you should follow. If they posted KOSPI limit down as if it was some new bearish signal you probably shouldn’t follow them. Futures/$EWY implied a limit down open (and more) on Friday ↗
- 2026-06-06 — Pretty sure you don’t either. If you exercise an option it no longer has open interest. Also there’s no reason this guy would exercise this option (not optimal to early ex this thing). It’s very possible (and likely) that it’s hedged via short delta + short puts (to monetize the vol move). ↗
- 2026-06-06 — Some quick high level thoughts on indices/macro.
1) SPX - analysts have underestimated broad index EPS growth for 8 straight quarters, the biggest forecast error 1Q 26. 1Y forward is the highest growth implied since ‘21, and we’re pricing 21x forward on that growth rate.
You could say this is rich. I don’t think it’s possible to ascertain rich or cheap without a view on AI Capex and its profitability. I believe we’re more likely to inflate than deflate, with the main watchpoints lab ARRs and hyperscaler spending. Supply is the other key question. We may see 500bn in EQ supply this year? Where does the money come from…
2) Rates - Warsh doesn’t want to hike but capex may force him to. Capex is inflationary in a shortage environment (components, raw materials etc). What is neutral in a world of capex > 2% of GDP? Trump may be able to limit headline inflation by giving up on tariffs (he doesn’t sound like it) and by fixing the energy impact to CPI by finishing the Iran conflict, but the possibility of cuts seems close to 0 for the next two years.
3) Favorite trades? This is probably going to surprise no one, but longs in AI capex beneficiaries (BtM, power semis, NVDA), banks (Japan, EU, US in that order), and shorts in rates sensitive pockets of the market. If you can trade hybrids, commodities higher + eq higher hybrids, especially with mid dated crude, are very attractive correlations. As are 10y rates higher, eq higher ↗
- 2026-06-06 — Sold meta near the lows on Friday. The highest conviction view here is that we’re accelerating the capex cycle in ‘26 and ‘27. Think we’ll see 2.5T over those two years. Invest accordingly across assets. ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Imagine if KOSPI closes green on Monday. Heads probably explode ↗
- 2026-06-02 — Someone blowing up in the post on $MRVL? ↗
- 2026-06-01 — So I guess the big question I have. If cost / GW is going up, and the hyperscalers are completely willing to pay it, how much pricing power do they have on the labs/AI compute users (inc SNOW/software now). It seems like cloud going to get a lot more expensive ↗
- 2026-06-01 — Until we cover into eps again ↗
- 2026-06-01 — Guess we’re supposed to short hyperscalers again ↗
- 2026-06-01 — JFC why do I do this to myself ↗
- 2026-05-30 — On hyperliquid all the bottleneck trades are up since Friday's close, if you believe this there's a huge amount of asymmetry to short there ↗
- 2026-05-29 — NVDA 0d 215p from .02 to 3.70 in 9 minutes. Totally cool markets ↗
- 2026-05-29 — $MDB don’t think I’ve seen a post weirder than that ↗
- 2026-05-27 — This is hilarious as I bought meta today ↗
- 2026-05-27 — To everyone wondering why $NVDA and $AVGO are lagging, just look at share of $NVDA eps as prop of total data center costs. Value semiconductor stock never the place to be in an upcycle ↗
- 2026-05-27 — At what point will someone start making an openAI bull case on the fact that their $AMD warrants are now worth a shtton of money ↗
- 2026-05-26 — $SATS feels like a v interesting situation here imo. On one hand if spaceX ipo prices high it trades at a big discount. On the other hand it’s an obvious funding vehicle if you’re long private shares and want to sell locked shares ↗
- 2026-05-25 — Top 5 tweet of all time ↗
- 2026-05-25 — Ha it’s unbelievable. “War is over maybe other things can rally”?? Kioxia +6, Rohm +7, Renesas +8… Nintendo -3 LOL ↗
- 2026-05-23 — @ChillTrades Ha it would be hilarious if the trade out of this was arm +50 again ↗
- 2026-05-23 — I’m such a pod monkey pm that I don’t know whether I make or lose money on Tuesday when I get back into the office if the war is over ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Ok late night bill ackman-esque rant done ↗
- 2026-05-23 — That doesn’t mean our current system is perfect. But to ban legal immigration is uniformly worse. Inequality can be fixed with other means, ensuring a shared cultural fabric can be ensured with other means. I’d rather have immigrants than be irrelevant in 50 years (see Europe). ↗
- 2026-05-23 — One thing I don’t particularly understand about this nativist/anti-all forms of immigration community is why they don’t support a much higher tax rate on the wealthy. If the anti-legal immigration argument is that we’re bringing in wage slaves from third world, who benefits? ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Will there ever be another America again? ↗
- 2026-05-20 — Thinking about trying a GLP-1, what’s the best way to get started? 5’10 180 would like to lose 20 lbs and just try to see if this is a miracle drug. Figure no insurance coverage since I’m not obese.
@TMTLongShort you seem to be knowledgeable in this ↗
- 2026-05-18 — Real kings would’ve sold him Codes ↗
- 2026-05-18 — For all the “option wizards” here no one has mentioned the most important options flow in years in SPX. ↗
- 2026-05-18 — $KWEB post market guy is gone ↗
- 2026-05-18 — Feels like a gin martini and butter chicken and garlic naan kinda night ↗
- 2026-05-18 — Hasn’t Rebecca Cheong been Rebecca Wrong since her excellent Covid calls? ↗
- 2026-05-17 — Aaron Rai is so nails. Absolutely the clutch gene on that back nine ↗
- 2026-05-17 — One thing that is interesting is the difference between Chinese and American coverage + public perception of AI. In China agentic (OpenClaw, Hermes) is viewed with such enthusiasm by younger people (1 person startup) vs US Gen Z (jobs are fuckt/perm underclass). Maybe a trade? ↗
- 2026-05-14 — Thought experiment- where would $META trade if they spun out MSL as a public co with a licensing agreement giving them first access to any new model tech for use in $META products? ↗
- 2026-05-14 — Nah I’m not long it I just find it very funny whoever decides it’s time to bid up an etf with very liquid underlyings from 4-7pm EST ↗
- 2026-05-14 — Dude this KWEB post market getting ridiculous. Another +1.5% today ↗
- 2026-05-14 — I mean I think I can answer this one based on the vol trades that didn’t work that suited a bearish environment:
-Long gamma (worst ever performance in march)
- short SPX skew to fund gamma (skew turbo steepened in small sell offs in q1)
- long implied corr (short ss/long spx) ↗
- 2026-05-13 — $KWEB post market guy is back with a vengeance ↗
- 2026-05-12 — Korea having its Icarus moment ↗
- 2026-05-12 — lol back to red ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Who is ripping $KWEB post market? Get some hobbies or buy $DRAM like everyone else ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Who is ripping $KWEB post market. Get some hobbies or buy $DRAM ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Lange and VC. ↗
- 2026-05-11 — Knowing the history of Korean investors you’re supposed to full port $TSLA and $HIMS ↗
- 2026-05-11 — lol $MU 800 on robinhood rn ↗
- 2026-05-10 — Wrong ↗
- 2026-05-10 — Think the most painful outcome for all people here is semis unchanged for 3m and bullshit space and punty nuclear shitcos to rally 100% ↗
- 2026-05-10 — This honestly seems like they’re accepting. Don’t trade off these headlines but this sounds like “hey we accepted but this ain’t a surrender” ↗
- 2026-05-10 — Whether you think that’s right or not is a question, but nothing really to me shows bubble. We’re back to debating what ‘27 - ‘28 capex trends and what steady state will look like and that’s pretty healthy. ↗
- 2026-05-10 — Summary of bubble conversations:
- Those who were long semis last 45 days: no bubble
- Those who weren’t: bubble
My view: we moved from pricing peak cycle as H2 26-27 EPS (on trough multiple) to pushing peak further into H2 ‘27 to ‘28. This happened last year post lib day too. ↗
- 2026-05-06 — Did you buy semiconductors today anon? ↗
- 2026-05-06 — China tech is the bag of all bags. ↗
- 2026-05-04 — Evercore pointed this out today. Think it’s still early but we’re going to have this debate for sure in q3 ↗
- 2026-05-04 — The beginning of the end. ↗
- 2026-05-02 — If youre long 1k shares here buy 10 lots of this and you’re making an extra 200k at 1400 in 1.5months just risking capping your long at 1600 in June. Seems fairly logical to me if you’re already long… ↗
- 2026-05-02 — We are giving you a free look for +3 to +36 in vol markets have fun ↗
- 2026-05-02 — Another ludicrous bet. July 1x2 EWY 160/190 for $4 makes very little sense to me ↗
- 2026-05-01 — Can’t believe I owned April 30s in this shit and didn’t roll em ↗
- 2026-05-01 — Meta upside is cheap- 660/720
June 1x2 < 1% can’t say no to that ↗
- 2026-05-01 — Imagine hating on someone because they had the ability to 1) raise a lot of money from really successful people, 2) structure a fund that allowed him to take a concentrated factor bet, and 3) be right (so far, which is all that counts in investing) ↗
- 2026-04-30 — Tomorrow gonna be really weird in factor land ↗
- 2026-04-30 — If capex is going higher next year than street broadly had, why would you buy $NVDA when you can buy micron/hynix/seagate ↗
- 2026-04-30 — You’re absolutely not wrong but any semis pod is selling the shit out of NVDA to buy higher torque semis themes today. ↗
- 2026-04-29 — I have a bad feeling I’m going to get rinsed tomorrow. Anyway, that’s tomorrows problem ↗
- 2026-04-29 — (If) ↗
- 2026-04-29 — If these hypers moves hold gonna feel a lot like 2025 innit ↗
- 2026-04-29 — Look ma I made it ↗
- 2026-04-29 — Well the labs can’t say they’re killing their largest customers out loud can they? ↗
- 2026-04-28 — Story of earnings. Semis/BTM power fucking print, every thing else doesn’t. ↗
- 2026-04-28 — Utility curve of money a big part of that ↗
- 2026-04-28 — This cycle it’s likely Leopold tbh ↗
- 2026-04-28 — All “legends” started by being very big in a trade that worked before converging on a higher sharpe distributions later on ↗
- 2026-04-27 — It’s $POET ic. Maybe fundamentals do matter in this market ↗
- 2026-04-26 — Is it just the market has moved on from one bottleneck to the next? Or are there legitimate concerns about some arch changes that will reduce memory load? SK Hynix at 4x NTM or 2x MS ‘27 seems a little silly? ↗
- 2026-04-26 — Can someone who is smart at this please explain to me why memory stocks are still so cheap on an NTM basis versus every other pocket of semis? ↗
- 2026-04-25 — Domino’s pizza on my birthday ↗
- 2026-04-23 — Can we get a DJT “great quarter guys” on the call or Truth Social? $INTC ↗
- 2026-04-23 — Might have to name my first kid Lip-Bu after that print ↗
- 2026-04-20 — In the last year it feels like the market is finally realizing it’s easier to squeeze foreign stocks than US stocks ↗
- 2026-04-18 — Vacheron Constantin, Parmigiani, ALS. At a lower price point JLC, Cartier, or IWC make great pieces. ↗
- 2026-04-18 — “Diversifying the real asset portfolio” ↗
- 2026-04-18 — Bought another watch today. Starting to become a problem… ↗
- 2026-04-16 — This proxy is most definitely wrong considering the dollar weights vs factor weights in the two baskets. The last two weeks have been extremely positive hedge fund performance-wise (excluding today) ↗
- 2026-04-15 — Jensen seems extremely defensive on the Dwarkesh podcast ↗
- 2026-04-15 — This feels locally over. Short squeeze action not real risk deployment ↗
- 2026-04-12 — Breaking from the strait content, if Li Haotong wins The Masters it would complete a true cucking for the US ↗
- 2026-04-08 — https://youtube.com/shorts/5SEEC2CUVcM?si=tI3QpHrUjnXZSQ_N
This is my entire feed right now ↗
- 2026-04-07 — Quick, post your post market IBKR screenshot! ↗
- 2026-04-07 — April ‘25 ptsd is a cruel mistress for mr market ↗
- 2026-04-02 — And before you tell me the large cap tech bros aren’t smart they obviously see the same opportunities in 1bn mkt cap semis but a 50% or 100% q in 250m of bloom energy or lumentum just isn’t large enough dollar pnl to offset the 15% loss on 5 yards of $META or $MSFT ↗
- 2026-04-02 — All the losses at the big platforms are just based on how bad fixed income bros got hosed and macros too deep in the cookie jar in gold, Korea, and Japan ↗
- 2026-04-02 — Funny with all the noise about equity L/S pod blowups seems like every factor neutral + systematic L/S shop keeps printing money.
Only ones getting hit are the large cap tech bros who have no choice but to run long hyperscalers, NVDA, and AVGO with the 70bn at 50% nets ↗
- 2026-03-31 — What earnings are growing? If you can answer that one maybe a real bull market is possible ↗
- 2026-03-27 — Interesting that the bill ackman portfolio keeps trading extremely negative rel market. ↗
- 2026-03-26 — The spy/spx daily vol spread needs to adjust for trumps America ↗
- 2026-03-23 — Know when u have edge and know when u don’t ↗
- 2026-03-20 — I think risk management at every firm has done a good job from what I understand. Probably will be surprised for most how not bad this will end up being. ↗
- 2026-03-20 — Insider trading is ruining markets ↗
- 2026-03-18 — I love that the hack for trading GTC now for semis pod bros was sell day of and buy the opening print after #alpha ↗
- 2026-03-18 — Ah sorry guys had to wait till 7:30 to unwind ↗
- 2026-03-17 — Is it legit free money to buy cl1 at 3pm NY and sell at 7am? ↗
- 2026-03-15 — hyperliquid making it seem like my pain trade is going to play out (-50bps in spooz). Let's see what the real people decide to do. Frankly I was really hoping to sell a TACO rally (as were most). ↗
- 2026-03-13 — Think the max pain for professional investors on Monday is no taco and stocks -50bps ↗
- 2026-03-13 — While I understand the hate, I would also think most every $SPX long would love to buy Anthro at 350b valuation ↗
- 2026-03-10 — No fund (save BAM) catastrophically blew up on commodities. The main trades were European steepeners, front end vol shorts/duration longs in euribors/sofr strip, and 🇬🇧 RV in all forms). Nor was equity beta a main risk factor. ↗
- 2026-03-10 — Everyone posting mmhf returns without understanding the carnage of European and UK fixed income markets is NGMI ↗
- 2026-03-09 — Trump must have gotten really upset at MXWO>SPX ↗
See @VolIsDead on X →