This reader needs JavaScript for search, threads and tags. Recent tweets from @SayNoToTrading:
- 2026-10-17 — Hard to think of a better time to exit X, or at least take a break.
Right after posting this, I'm deleting app.
The shitshow of finX during past week, culminates with conclusion this place is net negative.
To be clear there are many people on here I love - even a few sub sellers - but far more I don’t.
Furthermore, I've said the only reason I'm on here and did not go private... it's not for investing.
Tired helping those who want that part, yet don't want to help or consider what actually matters (not money). Will only give both, or none.
Maybe I'll come back next month.
Maybe not though, because I said same thing about Instagram and TikTok when I de-activated them in 2022. It has been refreshing to be unable to even open their links 4 years and counting. Don't even know what their current interfaces look like.
Plus, my annual renewal for X ad-free is coming up near end of year and as stated, I don’t think it’s worth it anymore and won't use it with ads, bots bad enough. Would rather give that money to someone like them: https://x.com/BTWsanctuary
In the short time I've been on X, it's disappointing how many grifters there are now with subscriptions. Wasn't like that in early 2025 when I joined.
I mean if they're so good at making money, why do they have to make money off the little guys? Or would risk such liability in doing so if they’re so rich and successful?
Furthermore, doling out paid financial advice while hiding behind total anonymity, ensuring no accountability no matter what. You act so confident and cocky, but that’s only because you’re in hiding.
You will do things differently if in the back of your mind, you know somone can find you, hence there should be no more than quasi-anonymity if you’re taking money from someone. Also, your paid financial advice is likely illegal in most jurisdictions.
Oh and don't say it's not financial advice. Disclaimers can’t protect your own contrived definition of what you sell, if understand how the law works. You're not running an Only Fans here. You’re too scared to even show yourself to the people you take money from.
Periodically posting your gain prn of degeneracy to lure money from the little guys does not impress me whatsoever.
I never post that but will now.
Anyone can post during good times.
I’ll post during bad times, after this terrible week, with 2nd largest position $RKLB in 66% drawdown from peak (-25% this week alone) and largest position $AMZN up only 50% in 5 years. Many of you have criticized me for holding and cost basis optimizing so many stocks, while you gamble on options and I don’t. We are not the same.
I’ve given you a documentary before as to the #1 way to think logically about your investing - the best lesson I could ever teach you - but 97% of you don’t believe me or you think it’s unrelated, and are too delusional to face uncomfortable facts: https://www.humansandotheranimalsmovie.com/watch
So when I already give you the secrets and you refuse to hear, I really feel like there’s nothing left to say here.
Peace out ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Hippos are always the answer.
E ↗
- 2026-10-16 — $AVGO now down firmly for both YTD and 1-year.
I added. ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Wonder what $TSLA FSD hardware he was running. If current, very disturbing. ↗
- 2026-10-16 — What's interesting about the $TSLA Tesla Roadster upgrade option is it's non-refundable, even without knowing sale price of car.
The $50k deposit is refundable, not talking about that.
The +$200k ($250k total deposit) is for the "Thrust" variant and aside from not explaining what that means, you don't know if it costs $350k or $700k.
Grok tells me Thrust version is only to add rear cold-gas thrusters for faster acceleration.
The "Rocket" is the single-seater with thrusters around the perimeter for upward, forward, and rotational movement. Tesla says "yes, it can fly" and it's invite-only.
My expectation is that 99.99% of Roadsters sold will only be capable of a small hover. The rest is for marketing and even if more elaborate moves were geo-restricted to off-road, the likelihood of injury/death too great of a liability for Tesla. ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Messed up big time on $KLAC.
Back to adding 100 yesterday and 200 today, all in $169s, and now left with $87.85. ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Tesla $TSLA already sending me email asking for another $200k on Roadster upgrade.
They don’t explain difference between Performance (default) vs. Thrust (+$200k more deposit) vs. Rocket (invite only, undisclosed up charge).
All this gobbledygook about active aero, multi-mode suction, acceleration thrusters, and “full-flight system” don’t mean anything without details on each.
Refunds for modifications not refundable either! ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Lambos may have wings but they can’t fly like a $TSLA Tesla Roadster. Can’t wait @elonmusk for it to replace this jalopy! ↗
- 2026-10-16 — Unbelievable.
First 3 $TSLA Tesla Roadster YouTube results are for AI-generated Elon Musk pumping crypto scams.
When I searched “Tesla roadster” this is #1: ↗
- 2026-10-15 — $1.5T vs. the whisper $2.2T valuation for Anthropic IPO.
GOOD!
No way it should be valued at half of $GOOG $GOOGL right now.
Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion. That's revenue, not profit.
I have zero FOMO going into this IPO because what can spring up this fast can fade just as quickly.
Search aside, Google has spent a quarter-century getting its tentacles into all parts of your life; email, maps, Android OS, YouTube. That's just the consumer facing, there's also Cloud, investments, and more.
What does Anthropic have?
The best LLM which is mainly used by business or those using it for such.
Unlike consumers who get lazy and entrenched, businesses will jump ship right away for cheaper tokens from an equivalent model, or just one that's good enough. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Closing price = market closing price. Does not mean I closed. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — I told you this morning as I bought $CRWV at $59.59.
Full circle closing price at $69.69. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Ok so was this the clearing event, like July 29th, we needed to make way for Anthropic IPO?
October 14th = John the Baptist day (hopefully) ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Today's mystery chart. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Kenny boy is gonna buy the book and flip this shit. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — Adds across the board today but $RKLB really hurts.
Only offset, albeit trivial in comparison, is so many non X stocks went 100% green on all lots, allowing me to sell all highest cost on many such such as $EFX, $WSO, $NVR, $DHI. Plus a lot of others not 100% green lots but enough of them where, I could unload plenty.
For those that did get into Watsco, I called it out when I was buying heavy, know that tomorrow is the ex date for the $3.30 dividend. Nice icing on cake.
Among buys included many I don't even like at current valuations, including $INTC and even the tiniest add of 100 $CRWV at $59.59 to match my 500 from July 29th at same price.
I mention CoreWeave as an X stock, while there 50+ others way, way more attractive for dip buying. ↗
- 2026-10-15 — So many citing the 15% on $CRWV bonds don’t seem to realize what a sliver that is and it’s not the rate they’re paying, it’s because market pricing them 79 cents on the dollar. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Biotech veterans know bundling negative binary news or similar with concrete positive news is the tactic that has more empirical support for softening a drop.
Rocket Lab $RKLB doing a simultaneous announcement of a new multilaunch Neutron contract, a quantified backlog update, an Electron cadence or revenue beat, or even a clearer “we’ll give a new specific launch date by X” would give the market something else to focus on.
The Synspective Electron deal (their largest commercial Electron contract) was just announced and would have been a perfect opportunity to pair with a Neutron update.
Those saying what I wrote is “idiotic” or “there’s never a good time to say bad news” I don’t think have much experience with how the most skilled management teams finesse such news.
All will be fine but that doesn’t mean it was handled optimally. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Out of all the times for Rocket Lab $RKLB to announce Neutron delay…
They choose to do it on the day stock is down 8% and almost 20% for week.
wtf @Peter_J_Beck @RocketLab?! ↗
- 2026-10-14 — If you’re able, now is a good time to take a vacation for a couple weeks and ideally, in a time zone opposite that of EST. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Symbolic of $CHTR stock. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Hard to see the Anthropic IPO going ideally, if the $CRWV situation and related sentiment isn't shored up. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — GE Vernova $GEV down 7% on the day, back to $930.
I understand it as a hold if your cost basis is $400-600 or lower, though aside from momentum chasing and window dressing by funds through end of year, hard to get behind valuation and be confident on your return next 1-3 years. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — We need to end war, not hike rates, to fix this. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — My $MU and $SKHY. Would probably add to latter in mid $130s but only if I could get $134.34. Not interested in $134.10. ↗
- 2026-10-14 — Added to KIOXIA $KXIAY $285A.T again today, first add since July 29th.
No interest at all in adding to $MU, $SNDK, $SKHY here.
I did add 25 Micron at $711 and my one and only buy of SK hynix at $122 on July 29th as previously discussed.
$KXIAY is an unsponsored ADR which you know I hate and generally avoid, though for such a small position, not worth paying the $50 fee to buy native on Tokyo.
What I like most about Kioxia is that you can't buy it on Robinhood, so that automatically filters out one cohort of boom-bust buyers and sellers.
Those who follow company closely, please share anything useful I may not know. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — Remember this upcoming Monday the 19th, we have a potential catalyst for $FICO that you could argue may be even more consequential than earnings.
Fannie Mae’s enhanced MBS disclosures start that day, published multiple times:
- Around 6:30 AM ET is first drop.
- Next is mid-morning around 10:30–11:30 AM ET.
- Afternoon slots around 1:30 PM and 3:30 PM ET.
This is the first loan-level visibility into adoption of VantageScore vs. FICO for GSE (Fannie and Freddie). ↗
- 2026-10-13 — $MCD there were signs… ↗
- 2026-10-13 — I’m buying $SPY here bigly. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — Haven't been on $EBAY in a while, this is what pops up.
So this is what it's turned into? Not sure what's more disturbing - the person buying or selling vintage tampons for $50.
Yeah, @ryancohen $GME need to fix this.
Btw I'm going to finance this with Klarna. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — Lots of people talking about $VICI lately and now the $O rumor. This post last year about their diworsification into non-Vegas rural properties, have they continued that in 2026? ↗
- 2026-10-13 — Would be nice if someone other than bots (one of which is a Certified ETF Advisor) would weigh in. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — $IESC at $274 vs. $STRL at $489
Which and why? ↗
- 2026-10-13 — In just 10 days, we go from 100 degrees to having to bust out the winter coats. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — Reason they came now = additional discount of up to 15% from Subscribe and Save, which comes one week later.
Those who think Costco is cheaper, they’re not stacking all these discounts and coupons on @amazon. ↗
- 2026-10-13 — POV: You open your front door and are greeted with 87 items (with more to follow) from Amazon Prime Day.
Say yes to $AMZN and no to $COST. ↗
- 2026-10-12 — Even the bots agree with me and X didn’t mark this as spam. ↗
- 2026-10-12 — Almost every website now is unusable if you’re on a VPN.
I don’t even think @WSJ uses $NET but they block me as a paying subscriber on VPN using a Los Angeles based IP.
Bots have ruined the internet for humans. ↗
- 2026-10-12 — I know many of you will find this unbelievable, but I promise you I'm telling the truth.
$NBIS, $CRWV, $CIFR, $IREN are not the only ways to play emerging data center demand.
$AVGO, $NVDA, $AMD, $QCOM, $MRVL or any other fabless designer, you also have other ways to ride their demand with perhaps less risk.
There are other drone stocks aside from $ONDS, whose cash hoard means little with ballooning acquisition costs and share counts (remember that cash came from diluting you).
$SOFI is not the only financial institution with great revenue growth and better yet, others have growing earnings too and a non-growing share count.
Now here's the biggest surprise... did you know more than 200 stocks exist? ↗
- 2026-10-12 — X getting to be unusable for investment discussions when comments are all the same type of spam, yet almost none marked as such so you have to waste time seeing them. ↗
- 2026-10-12 — I've owned $TDG for a few years now but have had to constantly CBO it on the way down as to not lose money.
One reason I prefer the $COST of aerospace aftermarket more, if you know who that is.
The main thing holding me back on stepping up TransDigm purchases is I need to do a serious deep dive on stress testing the debt at different levels.
They've always run very high debt as you can see from the attached 15 year debt to EBITDA chart from @gurufocus.
Now if you look at net debt to EBITDA (rather than total debt) it is slightly lower at 5.8x which is in management's target range of 5-7x.
Has anyone done a thorough analysis of $TDG debt risk looking out over the next 1-5 years, incorporating refi scenarios are different rate levels? ↗
- 2026-10-12 — If I were CEO of Hermes $RMS $RMS.PA $HESAF, I would jump off a bridge before allowing this to be sold at TJ Maxx $TJX.
Likewise for Ferrari $RACE plastered in windows of outlet store selling Puma.
This was part of Nike $NKE demise.
Brands are ruined gradually, then suddenly. ↗
- 2026-10-11 — This is how badly they want me to sue Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL. ↗
- 2026-10-11 — The problem with AT&T $T, Verizon $VZ, and T-Mobile $TMUS here on the $SPCX spectrum news isn't that those 3 don't have good rebound odds over time.
It's that over time, they are perennial losers.
You can't hold them and keep pace with S&P or even if you benchmark them to other categories of safety stocks with lower performance, as they lag even them.
Remember, $T "right sized" the dividend years ago and so many thought that would never happen.
$TMUS was more of an outlier last decade in becoming the serious challenger with their acquisition of Sprint. Thing is, they went from reasonable debt levels to having leverage not much better than $T and $VZ. So that era of reinvention and growth is over, now saddled with debt. From @gurufocus below.
Anyone who has been in telecom names this century knows the drama never ends with them:
- Spectrum auctions always costing WAY more than expected, we're talking tens of billions more as with $T.
- Ego-driven empire building such as what $T did with Warner, paying $108.7B inclusive of their $23 billion of net debt (and then paying ongoing interest on top of that after).
- $VZ has their own dumb moves in fiber flip-flops.
Don't be lured by a high dividend that makes you poor over the decades.
Call me crazy but I would probably rather gamble on $ASTS here than the trio if forced to choose, since we know legacy telecom is more incentivized to support them now. ↗
- 2026-10-10 — What's the deal with Topicus $TOI $TOI.V $TOITF stock back at lows, Lumine $LMN.V $LMGIF not far off, while Constellation Software $CSU $CSU.TO $CNSWF back up at $3,000 CAD/$2,100 USD?
Was just looking at some of their most prominent software examples and really, kind of junk in age of AI. The government software has legs but if going with that, would rather skip Europe and do $TYL here serving US and without currency risks.
Tell me why I'm wrong on Topicus. ↗
- 2026-10-10 — Remember when magazines existed?
Post your favorite, this was mine.
Issue from 26 years ago btw. ↗
- 2026-10-10 — First to launch?
$RKLB Rocket Lab Neutron vs. Relativity Terran R as of current milestones
Good video by @daveginvesting comparing ↗
- 2026-10-10 — This was in Laguna and not the same beach I just swam, but I was swimming in equivalent thereof of this:
https://youtu.be/6iz_kVa2LEI ↗
- 2026-10-10 — Ok so I thought the “massive” hurricane waves already being here was just embellishment.
So of course I still go for a sunset swim.
NOT an embellishment! I was the only one crazy enough to be out there. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Stop asking why I live here.
Weather and waves over wealth. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — If the $SBUX and $CMG rumor is true, it’s empire ego building and you can bet that within a decade, bankers will be pushing for a spinout so they can earn fees twice.
I did add 500 Chipotle on today’s fade. That’s because as mentioned in August, I cut many small and low convictions positions way down. $CMG went down to just 500.
When I saw it hit $31.31 today, I knew I could add 500 to get a $30.30 average, so obviously I had to buy.
I do own Starbucks but that is more of a high yield on cost dividend income holding, that’s how I think of it in recent years. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Anyone else hit the road today?
94 is fine but I took the 85. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Another reason I don’t like Newport. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — 3 of my favorite semiconductor equipment stocks are all buys right now.
Not many on X talk about them. Not giving you the names today, because you need to do homework rather than be spoon-fed.
No, ask Grok won't answer this correctly you damn slackers. Whenever people do that on my posts, they usually get almost the opposite answers for specific names I'm talking about! Then, they leave a reply in disgust at "my" stock picks.
No, not talking front-end $KLAC, $AMAT, $LRCX though I do have 7-figures in those.
I called out my highest conviction one by name within past couple months, buried in a post, and that one has offered excellent CBO since; oscillation of + and then - of ~25%, multiple times over. All my new shares are free.
Best opportunities out there are rarely the trending stocks on X. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Historically, such times are actually good for LTL consolidators with solid balance sheets like $ODFL $SAIA. ↗
- 2026-10-09 — Last great CEO of $PEP or $KO was this woman.
Laguarta who took over Pepsi in 2018, he’s had 8 years to perform. Can’t just blame GLP-1s.
Hated Coke’s James Quincey from start. Undecided on new guy.
That said, the stock of Pepsi over Coke here, though Coke tastes better. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Actually, Blue Origin and Amazon $AMZN are building two constellations that are different but could they become one?
In a post earlier today @SciGuySpace said:
"Real competition for $SPCX Starlink is coming very, very soon. I spoke with the principals behind Amazon Leo about the road to get here, and how they plan to compete."
However in addition to that, don't forget Blue's TeraWave.
TeraWave is 5,280 LEO satellites (RF user links, up to 144 Gbps) plus 128 MEO satellites (optical/laser links, up to 6 Tbps).
Amazon Leo is the smaller access constellation. Current customer terminals are Ka-band. A later direct-to-cell system, 5,105 satellites tied to Globalstar is what $ASTS has to worry about, not just Starlink Mobile.
TeraWave's LEO user links are Q/V-band, around 40 GHz down and 50 GHz up, with several GHz of bandwidth each. Gateways are E-band, near 70–80 GHz. This is enterprise quality, not cheap consumer stuff.
Amazon has filed some of the same V-band, but for gateways and a separate polar system, not what it's launching now.
Fairly confident neither overlap with $RKLB new plans for Iridium's L-band, thankfully.
My thinking is the end game could be a merger of Leo and TeraWave. Meanwhile, both can be pursued by separate businesses for FCC for licenses.
Until then though, it seems most logical that TeraWave is targeting enterprise and sovereign, especially those who want anything but Musk (look at what Canada is doing right now with Starlink).
What Amazon Leo is selling is higher advertised speed for consumers vs. Starlink, assuming they get it up and Musk doesn't out do them on speed by then.
New Glenn needs some major cadence for all this to happen. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Space mob for $ASTS not going to like this. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — If adding AI to your name doesn’t pump your stock…
If $AI remains down 90%…
Try double AI, as both your company name and ticker $AIAI. Might work? ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Saw someone yesterday say they were going to wait for $90 to buy $PEP Pepsi. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — On this day - Oct 1st - $HD bottomed at $277 and now $293. Similar percentage move for $LOW.
The 10-year keeps rising since, while these are rebounding. Good sign so far. Most expect opposite price action, which is why most miss out on bottoms. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Not as low as they were during the SaaS debt scare in March, though private equity and credit stocks are back on sale.
Not talking ones like $OWL, no thanks. I mean the highest quality like $APO, $ARES, $BX, $KKR. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Only $2.50/each, see yesterday’s post for details. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Taco Wednesday includes salad. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Not a Prime Day deal but if @balkanstocks was a real man he'd buy these.
I would definitely buy if they were 1080s. Not sure I can do non-1080s. ↗
- 2026-10-08 — Typical $AMZN Prime Day knockoff rubbish. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Guess the stock:
- 550 shares with most bought last 2 weeks including today.
- Sketch CEO.
- I love to hate it. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — That’s a wrap. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Tech and chips aside, what's working this week?
Some safety stocks have shown interesting resilience and recovery as rates keep rising.
$COST back at near $947 vs. the $880s right before earnings.
The day before Costco reported, I said that I think $CASY will maintain its current bottom - $580s back then - if Costco doesn't tank.
In similar manner, $WM now at $211 after flirting right above $200. When it was at $205 I posted I would be adding if it falls just a little bit lower, which I did.
If I had to bet on it - and I am by keeping these new shares - I think:
$880ish $COST in 2026 will be like the $846 low in 2025.
For $WM, those levels are $194 (exact low last year) and $201 this year.
$CASY the one I'm the least comfortable with but decent odds $580s hold, though I could see $540s easily, even if these others don't revisit or breach their lows. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Guess the stock. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Have commented on Curtiss-Wright $CW not being there. We are now down about 30% since just the first couple weeks of August!
You can see this is still a 5x last 10 years.
More drama yesterday after close, with CFO stepping down and this is on top of CEO change happening soon on Jan 1st.
Today at $511 is not cheap by any stretch. Question is if you think aerospace has legs or not.
It is a defense company with a commercial aerospace side business, not the other way around, and you know how defense stocks are doing.
On naval and commercial nuclear, probably $BWXT is closest peer in terms of overlapping who they sell to. Not competing on products.
$MOG.A $WWD $HEI $TDG on the components are overall peers. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — Not sure what to make of Webull $BULL drop on "linked in structural ways" to Chinese govt.
Since US is most of revenue, that is not a negligible issue if an action against them was taken.
$FUTU $TIGR $LU small declines in sympathy. ↗
- 2026-10-07 — I don’t do Taco Tuesday.
I do Taco Tuesday + Wednesday.
7 tonight, 4 for tomorrow.
5 on my first plate, then had to order 2 more.
Carnitas and fish, both made from mushroom, are favorite.
No Mexican Coke $KO though, but they have it if you want it.
Even though this is Costa Mesa, worth the drive up from South OC.
https://www.veganbyelzamorano.com ↗
- 2026-10-06 — Worst part is I started this whole task for Muse asking if it can complete tasks on https://Amazon.com or is it blocked. It said it could.
I ask again and now it says it can't. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — $META Muse is increasingly useless with agent blocks.
This weekend, best deal Fucker could get me on rental car was more for exact same rental via $BKNG website and significantly more than Booking app price.
Muse's price was over 25% higher. All of these were Hertz, same car model, same pickup location and airport drop-off.
Just now trying to have it handle an Amazon customer service issue and is blocked. I did hear they blocked Meta Muse but was thinking/hoping doing this via my PC browser would be different. Nope.
Muse is feeling a little bit overhyped at this point. Will be interesting to see if usage drops off as people hit a wall on what to do with it. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — My oh my, this is getting deeper. Now $TWST is #1 loser.
Hate to say it but this is what happens when a lot of people chase a stock/industry they don't understand. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — Chewy $CHWY doesn't seem to be trying too hard to compete with $AMZN Amazon Prime Day.
Usually they do but am looking at regular purchases and nope.
Read into that what you want related to this quarter's sales for each. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — True story:
Had a realtor reach out to me yesterday on a property I looked at during the summer, which did not sell and was taken off market.
He reached out to say that my figure proposed back then, he could never get seller there and instead, seller put it back on the market yesterday 30% higher than the public ask price this summer. My proposed price, of course, was below that earlier ask price - about 12% less.
Sellers are totally delusional, still thinking it's spring 2022. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — My mom texted me yesterday with clip of this and saying “maybe you should seriously consider moving to Hawaii.”
- lower income taxes
- 1/4 the property taxes
Hawaii is cheap! ↗
- 2026-10-06 — Rather dominant theme today in the top losers.
$PCVX is doing a secondary and warrant deal but aside from them, mostly X stocks in medtech AI $TXG, $TEM, $BFLY, $SDGR etc., along with those more in genomic testing or therapies like $MRNA (FDA considers mRNA gene therapy product for regulatory purposes), $NEO (CEO exit), and others you know.
About the only one that interests me is Natera $NTRA but not low enough. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — FYI for those using https://Finviz.com @finviz_com stock screener today, got this notice.
This is with VPN ad blocking off. With VPN on, don't get it. ↗
- 2026-10-06 — Are you envious you’re not a Bloomberg terminal bro?
Well remember, almost all those bros are just someone else’s little bitch.
Better to be rich on your own from stocks, while answering to no one.
https://youtu.be/KP6g_3iZDro ↗
- 2026-10-05 — If you want to move to rural Midwest or be an expat, plus rely on Social Security, sure!
Everyone else, not a great game plan. $HOOD ↗
- 2026-10-05 — More good news for $APP AppLovin. ↗
- 2026-10-05 — Gary Friedman blames the worst housing market in modern history for $RH stock performance.
Not denying that but maybe you shouldn’t mail these fancy full-color phone books every year, when they haven’t bought from you in 8 years. ↗
- 2026-10-05 — Nothing is more useless than people on here who only seem to talk negatively about almost every stock, while offering almost nothing positive to say on any, or when they actually buy in real-time.
Vast majority of people are long only, so if they're always being told it's a bad time to buy every stock, it's of no help to them.
No stock is risk-free. It's always a probabilities game.
Some just want to be negative on everything, so when a stock dumps they can say "told ya so" yet they never said the same on when to buy. Or did long after, in a post to shill their sub. However, plenty of people without anything to sell are just as guilty.
These chronically negative people are usually slaving away at a miserable job they hate, because they haven't yet learned how to take calculated risks in a viable, measured way. Instead, they'd rather pick on those who have successfully, behind their anonymous identities. ↗
- 2026-10-05 — As with many stocks, both sides can be correct on $CBRS they're just evaluating it through different lenses.
You're betting on a new, more efficient way of doing inference. Either works and is highly adapted... or not.
As you know, Cerebras puts the entire AI processor on one wafer, with memory on the chip, instead of networking thousands of GPUs together.
The edge is speed, not necessarily cheaper memory. SRAM costs more per bit than the HBM $NVDA buys from $SKHY, $MU, Samsung. So this is a latency bet and $NVDA is already answering it through Groq.
You have one group just saying the valuation makes no sense, even looking out. Then you have others looking at $CBRS market cap of $44B and saying if it works, this could be a major multi-bagger in coming years.
The OpenAI drama, the UAE being the lifeline that got them here (G42 and MBZUAI were 86% of 2025 revenue, and their track record is less than stellar), we all know these things. Forward however, the ramp is tied to OpenAI, not G42.
I don't think it's really worth arguing with people on here about it. It's a speculative higher risk/higher reward new way of inference. Weighted accordingly per one’s capital preservation goals.
I mentioned when Cerebras went back on my radar for buys late last week in the $170s and then later in a reply mentioned I bought. I've now gone up to 300 shares (from 100) and will likely keep all. Maybe take it back to 200, but 100 was always too small and I had wanted more.
So far since $CBRS IPO and its very short history, this $160s level has been a support and that has bounced, today being the 4th time.
Those giving downside PT targets solely on TA and ignoring all else, I don’t care to hear.
I provided consensus EPS targets but for something like this, these are just wild guesses of possibilities. ↗
- 2026-10-05 — Hey @surfline when you updated T-Street mid-afternoon saying it’s 3-5 feet, I think you meant 3-5 inches. ↗
- 2026-10-04 — Not just AmEx. My $HOOD brokerage value is now about 1,000x higher than my Robinhood gold card limit. ↗
- 2026-10-04 — Highly recommend these no sugar added chocolate chips from Trader Joe’s, sweetened with allulose. Seasonal for Halloween. Look for orange bag.
Cereal is Three Wishes brand, consists of just 4 ingredients; chickpea, tapioca, pea protein, salt.
This week, odds are you can stock up on it during $AMZN Prime Day. ↗
- 2026-10-04 — If you need credit today, you're screwed.
That or American Express $AXP is in trouble.
- Perfect payment history
- Balances always paid in full
- 789 $FICO (not VantageScore)
- 7-figures minimum annual income
- All spending goes on cards, so use them a lot
That gets you a $10k credit limit and 29% APR on a new Delta SkyMiles Gold card!
Been with AmEx almost 20 years and ironically, they gave me higher credit limits as a broke 20 year old pre-GFC than they do today.
Something’s up. ↗
- 2026-10-03 — This is temp at beach!
Definitely would be criminal to not be in the water all weekend long.
Cheaper than AC and $LII stock. ↗
- 2026-10-03 — Correction... that was a weekly quota, not monthly, so I'm already at 50%. ↗
- 2026-10-03 — Another reason for you to not renew $SPCX X Premium Ad-Free.
At almost $400/year (+ potential sales tax in CA starting Jan 1 per new law) it's becoming difficult to justify moving forward.
Main selling point a year ago was Supergrok included, which was otherwise $30/month or $300/year.
So you were basically paying $95/year for ad-free X. About $8/month, which is acceptable.
Without any automated usage at all and while also using other LLMs, looks like I'm at a run-rate of 30% of monthly SuperGrok usage. Next month, will probably be 50%+ due to Grok 4.6, which has significantly increased my usage.
Worse part, that 2% usage you see for Grok Imagine was a 100% failure rate in generating comparisons of heavy and medium launchers by advertised LEO payload. Multiple tries and look at attached. If I really used Imagine, seems I would blow through limit real fast.
While I really like it for research, if I'm going to start hitting my ceiling as merely a human chat bot user and have to pay more, I'd rather pay for $GOOG Gemini and/or Claude and drop paid Grok.
Also, the X ad-free claim was a lie. I just complained about that this week in another post about $BULL ads being shown to me - see attached.
Lastly, paying this much for non-existent human customer support is ridiculous. As @pequityresearch and myself have experienced, we even got blocked/permanently ignored by the X customer service bots!
Just as with $NFLX ad-tier and regular YouTube, I simply won't use X if I have to see ads. Not sure I want to pay that much when it renews in a couple months, if I also need to pay for Gemini due to low Grok limits. ↗
- 2026-10-03 — Who do you think replaces Nike $NKE in the Dow? ↗
- 2026-10-02 — I recall Trump had bought $VST. Interesting. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — These Lockheed $LMT F-35s circled the air above my house yesterday.
What I want to see though is the SR-72.
We have new reasons to think an unveiling is coming:
(1) NASA quietly removed the SR-71 #844 from display at Armstrong Flight Research Center in April or May, where it has sat since last flight in 1999. None have flown since.
(2) This modified Blackbird would technically be the best conditioned one remaining, per most measures.
(3) News this week that purportedly, retired old-timers who worked on the aircraft were being sought by govt for contract work related to it.
(4) This led some to speculate they’re going to fly the SR-71 again. That’s near impossible.
(5) Most likely deductive reasoning suggests they are restoring it to original glory (cosmetically) to no perhaps use it for a side-by-side spectacular with SR-72 unveiling.
This is not necessarily a huge revenue booster for $LMT Skunk Works but it could bring some sexiness back to the stock. Sorry Anduril.
SR-72 and/or $NOC B-21 posters will be on many boys’ walls this generation, just as their predecessors were on ours. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — I should mention the realized vs. unrealized breakdown, typically we see cost basis adjustments long after. Not same day or even in coming days.
I don't know exactly how cost basis will be reflected on THRM after tax lot update but regardless, don't want it right now. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — Some spinoffs are sold for stupid reasons, others are sold because you really don't want them.
Just sold the 89 $THRM shares I received from $MOD Modine spinoff.
Have 200 Modine, as I posted when I was buying earlier this week in a reply. You know, buried in the ones you don't want to read or like.
Spinoff adjusted, that's $2,700 from these sold + $800 unrealized on the mothership, so up 10% since Monday's noise.
Even if $THRM might be interesting as stand-alone, I have plenty of overlapping exposure and don't need a micro-position, nor do I want to add on something I don't know very well. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — Shows you how worthless analyst PTs are.
They just chase share price in both directions after moves.
$NKE is no different than most. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — Done this before, doing it again.
Maybe 7-8 months ago, I sought $ETOR eToro reviews or feedback. Europe & UK are around 75% of their customer base, with very minimal US presence. I'm totally unqualified to judge it.
Maybe my memory is wrong but I think it was @HatedMoats who told me due to their execution fees and fees for moving accounts, his basically sits dormant more or less, as he's moved to another broker without moving, by directing new money there.
As you know, $ETOR was a busted IPO and remains cheap on fundamentals. It is founder-led since 2007 and based in Israel.
They have social features like Robinhood $HOOD but not sure how popular that is.
They have an insane net cash position; $2.1B market cap and $1.27 EV.
Though given the rather negative feedback I received from $ETOR customers last time I asked, I don't know if this is cheap and growing business, or growing by squeezing existing customers who may flee to competition - e.g. Robinhood as it rolls out internationally more.
Growing customer counts isn't necessarily my definition of growing. It's like if inflation was 3% and your sales are growing 2%, you're falling behind. I am more interested in growth rates relative to peers like $IBKR $HOOD etc. ↗
- 2026-10-02 — Almost the 400th time on $AVAV! ↗
- 2026-10-02 — Y'all need to quit picking just on Cramer.
Don't forget about Carter Worth.
He sounds smart but confidence built on sand via TA.
My DM below explains what he was saying about Synopsys $SNPS at the $360s low just about 2 weeks ago. I believe $CDNS was brought up too but not the one charted.
Today we're a hair from $500. 35% gain in 2 weeks.
The month before that, it was Marathon Petroleum $MPC and him being completely confident the $340-350 was rolling over. Today we're $420.
I don't fault anyone for being wrong.
I fault those who were wrong and somehow 100% confident beforehand. Dunning-Kruger all day, everyday. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — Sept 14-16th ended up being a bottom for many networking and chip names.
I am keeping the new +100 $FN, given that my 300 now average $232.32. New shares are all in $370s and today we're $450 so can't complain.
I did sell $COHR adds today as they were not round lot and that looks ugly.
Nothing to do with $LITE because it's just those 50 at $597 from July 29th. Yes, I want to add more to make it round lot but opportunity hasn't came. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — So far, $NKE earnings not bringing any relief. At $33 as I write this.
Remember, you might have better options in apparel like $ONON if you insist. All the shoe and fashion drama, with none of the balance sheet drama of Nike. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — For playing the rate reversal - not saying when that is but when it happens - being a hero isn't necessary.
Floor & Decor $FND probably has higher upside potential, but also downside if we're higher for longer. No dividend support, either.
Home Depot $HD and Lowe's $LOW capture the renovation money like FND but also the maintenance spending which must continue no matter what.
Outside of flood and fire, new wood or LVL flooring is purely upgrade driven.
Today $HD share price touched its 2023 low. Not saying valuation and circumstance are same, but we know it's a level many look at regardless. The @gurufocus @GurufocusC GF Value, which is a blend of multiple indicators, actually has it cheaper than 2023 low.
As far as homebuilders, similar to Floor & Decor, there's less automatic built-in spending on new homes. I am still green on all my homebuilder stocks and not ready to add on any yet. You can search my feed to see those names I own and why.
Sherwin-Williams $SHW is a nice hybrid name I'd like to add more. We are still quite a bit above the May 19th and June 1st lows in the $295 neighborhood. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — Will eat into eating out when paying more tax on $MCD $CMG etc. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — If you have questions for $KRMN management, post them here and hopefully @y_jakub gets them before his call with investor relations. ↗
- 2026-10-01 — $AVAV CBO day? ↗
- 2026-09-30 — Whooo’s launching 47 times on $RKLB @RocketLab Electron?
@synspective
Owl systems go @Peter_J_Beck! ↗
- 2026-09-30 — Pulte claims that using VantageScore over $FICO saves $1,600 per home closing from Rocket.
How can that be if VS is $1 vs. $10 for FICO?
$1,600 isn't $9, right?
What he's not explaining is that VantageScore 4.0 runs up to 20 points higher and is now treated on par with FICO.
If credit was the barrier to home ownership today, that would be one thing, but it's not.
It's the high cost of a home, as well as high living expenses on top of that.
What Pulte did was basically loosen how credit gets priced, not make homes any more affordable (unless you're counting the $9 reduction).
In fact, this may actually drive UP home prices.
You worked hard to build your great credit, right?
Now those who may not have, who may not be ready for ownership, are viewed as equal creditworthiness, competing with you for the same homes. ↗
- 2026-09-30 — I love this $META ↗
- 2026-09-30 — Webull $BULL is one you haven’t seen talked about much on X in quite a while. They’re now advertising here.
When Webull changed the bonus offer terms to 5 year lockup and more paid in out years, I lost interest in opening an account, despite the UI which gets great reviews.
Given crypto recent strength and always having been poor man’s $HOOD stock, think it will bounce next couple quarters?
That reminds me - I’m paying for X ad free, isn’t this an ad?! ↗
- 2026-09-30 — Single-family residence vs. condo
Both scams in different ways.
Nice thing about condos is not dealing with exterior maintenance and insurance. Only need to buy walls-in covered, if desired.
Instead you deal with restrictive rules on landscaping, pets, parking, and association mismanagement/drama dictated by geriatric patients. ↗
- 2026-09-30 — I'm watching $CBRS this morning. Interesting take as to someone is lying. ↗
- 2026-09-30 — $APP now with a 2-handle and I think it's justified. ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Example, for research from last night. 2nd Muse notification like this today. ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Between this and annoying notifications from $META Muse to buy a product hours and day after your research, I’ll probably delete it soon. ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Remember, peace is possible. ↗
- 2026-09-29 — What to do with $FICO now?
Not investment advice, just what I am doing now.
I was reminded about this comment of mine by @BarretoYoz in my feed today, in a conversation he was having on that old post revived.
This is a situation where you think you know what's most likely for FICO vs. VantageScore and if on your own, your thesis would remain that.
However being on X, it gets corrupted over time, subconsciously, as people who don't know what they're talking about confidently tell you otherwise.
In short, I wish I was wrong but I wasn't.
It's also an example of why I think X is a net-negative place for investing for many people. Only for momentum T-worders could I see it being net-positive.
Up until less than a week ago, I was still green on $FICO so my losses are basically what has transpired yesterday and today.
I will certainly realize any losses on it by December 31st for tax purposes but am in no rush. I don't do options so these are shares and as such, no theta or expirations pressing for an urgent action.
I have been running numbers and projections of various scenarios and then figuring out where share price may land in each scenario. This is going to take time.
I'll watch October GSE MBS disclosures (which model priced the loan) and if investors reject VantageScore pools. Remember that was the whole (or most compelling) thesis for FICO - the securitization stamp.
Scores are (were) as of last quarter:
Mortgage originations = 62% of scores
Scores = $459 million / $674 million = 68% of company
Mortgage = 42% of company revenue
The GSE/VantageScore hits only slice of that.
Direct hit from this is probably 15-18% of revenue, not 68% and not the full 42%.
However with FHA/VA too in future, that could/would take agency exposure to probably 25-27% of FICO's total revenue. Big lenders may standardize on one score and drag portfolio/jumbo along. Even if FICO keeps the pull, a Vantage-like price is bad. A move from 3 to 2 scores cuts units by 1/3rd. And that revenue is at around 90% margin, so earnings and multiple fall more than sales percentage suggests.
Auto loans, credit cards, insurance, account management scores, and myFICO/B2C are not what Pulte vendetta touches.
Software is real. Platform ARR hit $413M (+62%) and is now more than half of software ARR but that can't carry company.
The net debt from buybacks of course is now something you can't just sweep under rug.
Too bad for that because if not, they would still be in great position with (backward looking) 85% gross margins, 52% operating, and 34% net. Though when you have debt to service, amazing margins can't automatically make things great.
I do think there remains real value, a viable business here, FICO business will not die. Though $FICO stock now and near to intermediate future is tricky. If this was happening in March vs. almost October, would be easier to navigate.
I'm actually most concerned about rates. Imagine if we had a 100-125 bps drop in 10-year. The amount of loan and refi activity which would result, that can paper over a lot. ↗
- 2026-09-29 — Do you want to buy from "Top Rated Seller" on https://Walmart.com?
On Amazon, you also see names which try and confuse you to think they are Amazon. They'll use something like "Amazing Prime" or similar.
$AMZN $WMT ↗
- 2026-09-29 — That is Robinhood’s phone number by the way. Do NOT save it in your phone, as caller ID name missing can be a tip off of spoofed number, as is the case here. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — You should probably have policy of simply not answering phone calls from Robinhood $HOOD no matter what.
I received these 2 calls minutes apart, spoofing their correct phone number.
Huge failure by @vladtenev @AskRobinhood on the app warning.
Normally if in a phone call, they have banner warning at top saying they’re not calling you.
They didn’t have that today on these as I answered one and listened, while having Robinhood app open.
Fix your security. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — Dude this stock is a joke. $AMZN will be smoked by Borders, Barnes & Noble. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — TA take from totally non TA guy.
I'd like to see $META around where I dropped the cursor, or lower, to resume buying. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — Here… ↗
- 2026-09-28 — Looks like the Critical Metals $CRML pump is over for now, as it should be.
Most people on here just have no idea how difficult the logistics of mining in Greenland will be. I posted video on this many months ago.
Last week it was amusing watching every shitco that had Greenland in its name rally. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — Dude I'm getting a $DELL.
Not more stock though.
Definitely not their PCs.
If you want a 40-43" monitor with normal aspect ratio, height adjustability, and built-in speakers, seems there is only one option on market; Dell U4323QE.
Had my Meta Muse knock $60 off by chatting with sales rep. Wish I could get it a bit lower as I still don't understand why 98" TV is $2,000 today while a relatively small PC monitor is half that.
I absolutely hate dual monitors for investing. Back in 2018, was among first to get that Samsung 50" ultra-wide, which was equal to 2 side by side normal.
The problem with that is you have to turn your head left to right constantly, takes too long in fast markets. So I only used it a couple years and never as a dual-monitor like setup. The sides always stayed blank without windows.
I like having everything within my field of view, without turning head.
However, that means I have multiple windows smaller than normal and hence, 43" screen.
This is for cost basis optimizing. NOT t-wording! ↗
- 2026-09-28 — Two of your brokers may not be working today.
$SCHW Schwab thinkorswim is down for the app. Logins work but can't proceed past.
Fidelity is not reflecting executed orders in your positions page. You can see them on the order history but any buy won't be shown in your lots. Fidelity tells me this problem is widespread.
Why you need multiple brokerage accounts, if even on an average Monday you can't rely on them. ↗
- 2026-09-28 — 37% “can’t wait” for their parents to die?! ↗
- 2026-09-27 — Are you a YOLO lady?
I know some on here who are, such as @balkanstocks. ↗
- 2026-09-27 — The Plot in Oceanside is the best weekend brunch.
100% plant-based. Local ingredients within 60 mile radius, some grown on-site. Very reasonably priced.
I split the diabetes dish (French toast). ↗
- 2026-09-27 — Eisman just framed $META $27B Louisiana data center as an Enron style off-balance sheet vehicle in most recent podcast episode.
Meta owns 20%. $OWL Blue Owl/Pimco own the rest.
The SPV issued $27.3B of debt. Almost none of it sits on Meta’s balance sheet.
Meta still leases it for 20 years, responsible for delays and overruns, and writes a residual value guarantee.
Economic risk stays with Meta but not the debt.
EY flagged it as a critical audit matter.
As you know, I went bullish on $META for first time I've been on X on the day the big settlement was announced. My post below was a week or so prior to that. This one off balance sheet example is small, so it's not that this specifically is that concerning.
I'm very familiar with what they're doing and as you can read, my concern is not that it's "Enron style" but rather, that valuation is not as low as many people think here when factoring in everything off balance sheet. ↗
- 2026-09-26 — Hate being sexist but I think this is generally true.
When people say hairdressers are therapists, those people are much more likely to be girls, not guys.
If you are a more matter-of-fact guy who just wants a haircut as efficiently as possible, often the therapist role is reversed.
You intentionally don't say much. Not because you're not social, but you want to cue them you prefer to be in and out. You're only there for a cut, not counseling.
They twist that into opportunity to tell you all about their dramas you just don't care about, along with lots of pauses for wild gestures (using both hands) during these in-depth story sessions, so your hair cut takes 2x as long.
Then, they gripe about how hard they work and think they're entitled to $20 tip because a simple men's cut which should have taken 15-20 mins takes 50. ↗
- 2026-09-26 — Unless you have young kids, almost no one uses their pool/spa enough to justify time and cost of maintenance.
But guess what? The cost to get rid of it is exponentially higher and as such, $POOL products people keep buying. ↗
- 2026-09-26 — No need to CBO $CBOE but $MIAX another story.
Miami International vs. CBOE, $NDAQ, $ICE.
MEMX is combining with BOX in a deal valued at about $2.3B (TMX Group $X.TO $TMXXF taking majority control). I'd say that is who would most concern me, being that MEMX is the Zelle equivalent of 9 banks, financial services firms, market makers, and retail broker-dealers.
They're making inroads especially in single leg and non penny stocks, and the MEMX + BOX + MX2 combination is the first credible challenger group since $MIAX. However MEMX alone is still 4% vs. Miami's mid-teens.
MEMX 4% + BOX 4%, plus some segment-specific shares that get them to 10%.
On adjusted EBITDA (stripping litigation and SBC), $MIAX 9–10x EV/EBITDA is discount to the group. $CBOE closest direct public peer. ↗
- 2026-09-26 — Covid was 6 years ago.
If you see someone in public with a face mask today, they either:
A. Have cancer or other major immunocompromised situation
-or-
B. Are up to no good, like this fake delivery person
Unfortunately many, perhaps most, fall under category B rather than A. ↗
- 2026-09-25 — Just $6.5 million in cash.
That’s what was paid for Iridium $IRDM out of bankruptcy.
Plus an $18.5 million promissory note.
Before that, $6 billion was spent building and launching the original Iridium, before filing for Chapter 11 in 1999.
That’s $6 billion before inflation adjustments for the 3 decades since.
Having finally finished ‘Eccentric Orbits: The Iridium Story’ I am fascinated by all the details found only in that book about this.
They went public the 2nd time via SPAC during GFC, another near death experience, and before SPACs were commonplace.
So the constellation and brand went public in 1997, bankrupt, private, then public again in 2009.
I bought Globalstar $GSAT in middle school the first time it was public - similar timeframe - under different ticker then. Not sure if I ever bought Iridium stock, don’t think so.
Now Rocket Lab $RKLB will take it and spectrum to the next generation of use cases you are not expecting. No, they won’t be competing with $ASTS or $SPCX Starlink. ↗
- 2026-09-25 — Have never used a profile pic in the 15 years I’ve used $AAPL iPhone.
Decided to add one last night, while fixing myself being duplicated on iMessage after upgrade.
Did not know it would add pic to my non-Apple email as I negotiate a 7-figure VC deal.
Professional, right? ↗
- 2026-09-25 — For Meta Muse to displace $BKNG and $ABNB, it would need to:
(1) Access special unadvertised prices only available via Booking app and logged-in users.
(2) Yes, an agentic AI agent can easily login and do that, but that doesn't mean they can find that $6 rental car deal elsewhere.
(3) So they still have to book through Booking, or in the case of Airbnb, where most properties are exclusively listed.
This friend and wife travel all the time, super creative with finding best deals, and they often find the best only in Booking app. Not website.
Most likely scenario? $META does affiliate marketing arrangements with travel aggregators. ↗
- 2026-09-25 — Now I know exactly why $CMG stock is in the dumps.
Might be the first time in 2026 I’ve done Chipotle.
$35 buys you 2 Sofritas bowls with chips and 1 guac to share. No drinks.
I remember back in the day I ate here for $2 no joke.
The Hollywood location on Sunset and Vine, you could get beans for $1, rice for $1, and other veggies were no charge if added.
They would put it all in a burrito bowl, so it was essentially same portion as this.
Now that’s inflation. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — I hate these conversations. They often ignore:
1. Ratios of annual income to home values, which are so much higher in 21st century vs. 1970s thru 1990s. They pretend the '80-81 inflation peak was their entire homebuying era.
2. Back then, homeowners insurance was an afterthought. Now you have to think if the property is even insurable and whether that amount is a mini-mortgage payment (it often is).
3. High home values also mean property taxes relative to annual income are higher than ever before. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — You might be able to make a call on a $RKLB phone before an $ASTS plan.
So what if it’s a brick! ↗
- 2026-09-24 — Probably the next great time for buying $META will be when $GOOG launches their Meta Muse competitor.
Admittedly, for Muse to really be useful, it needs access to the email tied to your accounts. Gmail users will be more inclined to opt-in to that on Google's version.
Plus, Muse isn't offering voice calls yet. Use cases kind of useless for most things, until they offer that.
I don't need a script of what to say to customer service on a call, I already know. I need an agent to do 100% of it for me, assuming I give them info for ID verification to act on my behalf.
Google can one-up Meta by launching with agentic AI calling on day one.
If the above happens, $META probably dips. That would be when I would like to add more. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — I see Tokyo Electron $TOELF solana:DiPGXNtHxipNrixTfrQPBA51GFLtHdQvBJ8Moj8m6aNP is doing a 5 for 1 split.
Too many ignore this name.
$AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML, $KLAC I have higher weight given currency considerations and native market of Tokyo Electron, but I would feel incomplete not owning it.
Don't leave a comment asking why I bought the ADR. This is not an ADR. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — Hell no Robinhood $HOOD ↗
- 2026-09-24 — Fucker is kind of useless though until enabled phone calls? Trying to have it deal with that Delta AmEx issue I posted earlier. ↗
- 2026-09-24 — $META FYI Meta Muse likes to be called fucker. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — I really don't get how good $META Muse is, meanwhile all the AI chatbots used by every website are total garbage. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — Soon to be for diapers, too.
Ok not soon, but long term in Western nations.
Long term risk with real estate values from that, plus a lot more.
Not saying fewer people is bad, rather that we can’t automatically extrapolate certain valuation trends, inflation adjusted, from last century to rest of this century. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — One reason I like $GOOG at $334 is because it’s unloved due to $META Muse stealing show.
Not a deal but better than $MSFT at $500.
So it’s become more favorable in big tech ranking for moment. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — Fidelity app is unusable on iOS 27 or at least when on iPhone 18.
Once you navigate to a position, no way to get out of it. This is $AZO example right now.
The 3 dots populate what you see in last screenshot. Nothing to navigate back.
Only thing I cropped is account number at bottom, which is another issue as that is set to be masked but it doesn’t do that. Nothing down there to navigate away and when you select different account, it’s only to place a transaction on it. Doesn’t take you to it.
Unbelievably bad broker but only one with same-day lot specification ability. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — Not sure I'll keep these +25 but doing a little adding on $CASY including today.
Last time I talked about it was around $600-610 and that wasn't good enough.
Neither is $575 which is why these may not be kept. We'll see. Actually, will decide likely based on $COST earnings tomorrow.
If Costco dumps, decent chance Casey's does too. If not, this might be a stable range for $CASY. ↗
- 2026-09-23 — Buffett swore off airlines and eventually bought NetJets.
For similar reasons on a less affluent scale, a 21st century of quasi-private airlines like JSX, Aero, Surf Air $SRFM, Bark Air, and whoever comes next could be a successful niche *if* someone can break out and get scale economics. None of those, nor $BLDE, $UP, fit that bill yet.
Buying premium $DAL, $AAL, $UAL seats doesn't save you from all of the other horrible thing about air travel today, whether it's getting felt up by TSA (100% of time for me with orthopedic hardware), the airport terminal, or mentally unstable passengers like this guy.
A lot of people like me don't want to pay 2-5x for a roomier seat, but would gladly pay that to avoid all the other stuff. ↗
- 2026-09-22 — $49.49 on $KBH earnings still ugly.
Don’t care if I can buy it at $44.44 and it goes to $99.99 because it’s only good as a T-word.
As the case is with almost all homebuilders.
Exceptions are $NVR, $DHI (which now has an NVR model), and likely $GRBK. ↗
- 2026-09-22 — If I were a T-word, I would sell that $ONON buy I shared with you a few days ago and buy some New Balance that are new.
But I am not a T-word. ↗
- 2026-09-22 — If you were a youngin around the 2000s you remember the Sandals time of your life commercials.
The move on Royal Caribbean $RCL makes sense to me.
Diworsification of an already difficult industry of cruises.
$BKNG and royalty models like $MAR, $HLT. Owning travel assets bad. ↗
- 2026-09-22 — Who is taking the entire day (or night) off from work when $RKLB launches Neutron?
I am. ↗
- 2026-09-22 — This is crazy! Warm waters are bringing up all sorts of animals rarely or never seen here. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Got to gym around noon, so this is for only about 4.5 hours of use. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Do NOT upgrade for the battery.
Apple claims the iPhone 18 Pro Max battery lasts for up to 45 hours of video playback or up to 30 hours of general mixed usage.
I charged to 80% and went immediately to gym.
This screenshot taken after I was finished.
That’s 33% of my battery gone!
Data was on their WiFi first, with cellular secondary, so should be lower power usage.
$AAPL up to their usual scams it seems. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — How slow or fast can the garbage stocks recoup higher fuel costs?
$RSG - Fuel recovery fee resets monthly off the peak DOE diesel print in the 30 days ending the 15th. About a 1-month lag. Barclays says the fee more than covers the cost, about 1.6x.
$WM - Energy surcharge tracks weekly DOE diesel and Henry Hub. Dollar-for-dollar over a year. Residential is billed in advance, so that lags 1-3 months. Commercial and roll-off show up sooner.
$GFL - Their US fuel surcharge updates monthly off the same DOE diesel index. Covers 100% of direct fuel on an annual basis. Sharp spikes still pinch for a month, plus third-party haulers add their own surcharge with another short lag.
$WCN - Weakest automatic recoup. Surcharges on only 30-40% of the book. The rest waits on base-price increases, which are slower. A sudden diesel spike can still nick EBITDA before price catches up. Rule of thumb: 1 month on open commercial work, 1-3 months on residential, a quarter if you only look at their non-surcharge contracts.
Waste Connections is my largest weight among them and not my top choice if adding.
Will definitely not add on GFL no matter what, as long as this pending take-private keeps being teased. I can't afford forced realized gains. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Just as with land mines, which may blow the legs off (or worse) of unintended humans far in the future, these are terrible for wildlife.
Voice your opposition to your representatives. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Glacier because I like girly colors. Black is boring.
I'll upgrade $AAPL iPhone 18 Pro Max to 28 Pro Max when that comes out, or a left-handed Duo.
Until then, all I care about is battery life.
Don't care about cameras. Those have been good enough for many years.
Other than cropping and zooming in, about the only time I adjust pics if printing etc. What's captured is what's captured. So all these filters and perspective changes I won't waste time on.
Life is wasted when you live through your camera vs. living the actual moment. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Mostly diesel. Fuel as a share of sales vs. costs at garbage companies:
$WM - Direct 2% of revenue, 3.5% of operating costs. All-in with estimated subcontractor fuel 4% of revenue, 7% of operating costs.
$RSG - Direct 3% of revenue, 5% of operating costs. All-in 4% of revenue, 7% of operating costs.
$WCN -Direct about 3.5% of revenue. No full subcontractor breakout.
$GFL - Direct 4% of revenue. Highest of the group. Third-party haul adds more, not cleanly disclosed. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Multiple connotations and denotations here. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — Stock tip? ↗
- 2026-09-21 — If you park your car on the street in LA, might be the #1 reason to own an EV. There are multiple nights I was awakened to reciprocating saws and would look outside to see this. I'm talking in very nice area, too. ↗
- 2026-09-21 — BNSF train $BRK.B $BRK.A ↗
- 2026-09-20 — True: Vet care has gotten excessively expensive but there's blame to go around.
Vets ripping us off, especially with pushing excessive array of tests, before they will approve the most probable treatment for your pet.
Zoetis $ZTS and IDEXX Lab $IDXX upped prices a lot on meds and tests, respectively.
However, the biggest problem is still likely the hangover from Covid pet boom. My stray rescued from streets of Oakland was victim of that.
Too many people only thought of pets as a short-term commitment vs. the reality of up to 10-15 years. Yes, they're pricey. Yes, your life and travel must revolve around them.
Don’t get a dog or cat without understanding and accepting that.
Don’t fall for their cuteness (same can be said when choosing a human spouse).
Conversely, don’t have cognitive dissonance with what animals to harm vs. love. Remember, dogs and cats are far less intelligent than pigs. Many dog breeds are more on par with cows. All life deserves respect. ↗
- 2026-09-20 — Seems good odds that Chris Hohn aka TCI Fund Management is buying more $MLM and $VMC this quarter.
As of last 13F, combined weight of both was less than 3%, which is pretty low for someone who runs a concentrated portfolio.
Though I never saw these investments as being conviction growth buys. Rather, they seemed like physical asset/commodity plays on infrastructure growth and potential increased inflation hedge during such.
Keep in mind Vulcan Materials is only up 100% in 19 years, since the last major infra boom peak in 2007.
Martin Marietta Materials is better but still horrendous vs. $VOO at only a 3x.
Yes, both pay dividends but with yields currently less than 1%, doesn't change their return profile.
Crushed stone, sand and gravel, and other aggregates are arguably even better than timber. With both:
- Geographic proximity is advantage, given expense of transporting further away
- Little to not maintenance required if it's not selling and with timber, they can become more valuable with more time to grow
As I've said before regarding Chris Hohn buying, given fund size he has to go for the biggest companies. I do not think $VMC and $MLM are best exposure for such thesis, they're just the biggest and therefore best suited for large AUM.
Others include $AMRZ, $CRH, $CX, $HDLMY, $KNF, $EXP, $ACA. Most have equally treacherous charts, in terms of terrible returns when measuring form mid 2000s.
Which do you think offer best growth potential for next 10 years? ↗
- 2026-09-20 — Know what you own.
Good first-hand feedback on $GRAB.
He knows it, wouldn’t own it, so how can a removed American like myself truly understand it?
I can’t.
That’s why I stay away from *most* foreign stocks, odds are I’m unqualified to know it.
Even when I think I know it, currency risks are a bitch. ↗
- 2026-09-20 — Have you ever had an $UBER Eats delivered within time stated? ↗
- 2026-09-19 — NEVER use AC in California!
Dying from heat stroke would be less painful and preferable to your power bill.
Thank you @GavinNewsom for giving us the #1 most expensive electric utility in mainland US, with rates 4-5x higher than next door Nevada at up to 80.2¢ kWh.
This is 3 months for ~3k sq ft with 32 fully-owned and functional solar panels, and electric everything as forced down our throats i.e. water heater, EVs, cooking.
AC briefly used during that recent heat wave, not regularly.
That’s $750/month with major solar offset. Without that, would be substantially higher. ↗
- 2026-09-19 — Reliable $RKLB is mission accomplished, are we surprised? ↗
- 2026-09-18 — After this, just 3 more launches until the big 100 for $RKLB.
Successful orbital launches = 83 which excludes HASTE suborbital.
Meanwhile, Blue Origin has only 2! ↗
- 2026-09-18 — Stop asking about $SNPS and $CDNS as I already told you my game plan.
On Monday’s dump, CBO’d highest cost to get Synopsys to $369.
On my conviction laggards, I simply focus on not losing money on them, until I make money on them. ↗
- 2026-09-18 — Seeing $AMR in the loser list today, I am reminded that over 3 years ago, Mohnish Pabrai went all in on this stock, while dumping $MU to pay for it.
He sold Micron at $64. Missing a 15-bagger.
Just because someone is a great talker and engaging to listen to in the countless podcasts and interviews they do - sounding smart too - that does not necessarily mean they are worth listening to.
Oftentimes, it's the opposite.
They will talk you into making bad decisions.
If you've listened to Pabrai throughout his public fund management career, you will realize he is just as prone to the whims of sentiment as people on X.
I think that's his biggest weakness.
He's obviously very smart but is too susceptible to narratives shaking him out of a position, or conversely, into a bad one like $BABA.
Literally nothing changed regarding $MU in terms of why he bought and during the years he held. He did NOT buy on GPT moment, we're talking prior. It was based on the thesis of memory no longer being so cyclical due to industry consolidation.
His thesis remained intact, yet he dumped in 2023 because the populace told him he was wrong.
I bought $MU on same thesis and held, including that add of 25 $MU on July 29th at $711 as mentioned. Don't get shaken out of your informed convictions if they are based on facts. Yet one more reason you should consider leaving X. ↗
- 2026-09-18 — Should I CBO highest cost 50 $COST or not? ↗
- 2026-09-18 — Those 60 were CBO’d near open, bringing position back down to 300. ↗
- 2026-09-18 — It's official.
30% of you think Trump should use Wrong-Way Warsh.
Now someone who has an in with his admin, they need to let him know what the research says as to best nickname. ↗
- 2026-09-18 — Those who missed my reply - this post was a joke. Though I really did order the 18 to replace my 14. Not an 8. ↗
- 2026-09-17 — I've decided to upgrade my iPhone 8 to 18.
I think this will be a strong upgrade cycle for Apple.
However, I am unlikely to upgrade my $AAPL position size until if/when I can get +100 shares at $278.80. ↗
- 2026-09-17 — Couple days ago, it was Charli xcx 365 inspiration.
Today’s mystery stock buy is inspired by the original song. ↗
- 2026-09-17 — Statements like this don’t make any sense to me.
If you really haven’t heard of $KNSL you are most likely not an investor and just a T-word.
I think it’s crucial as an investor to know all companies, at the very least all of S&P 500 and many or most in Russell.
Because you can’t know what you want without knowing what don’t want.
That’s the #1 problem with many people on X.
Their universe of known stocks is quite small (this echo chamber) so something only looks attractive to them, because they don’t know what else is out there. ↗
- 2026-09-17 — As discussed many times, I really hate $AXP but did add 25 shares here.
Prefer it <$286 though I will still hate it at any price. ↗
- 2026-09-17 — In response to this… ↗
- 2026-09-17 — It is sinful to ask me such a question.
If the intraday low was the pretty number of $244.44 on $AMZN it should just be assumed I got it. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — If you are in LA or OC, I highly recommend you check out my friend’s new restaurant Vizzi in Long Beach.
Born in Southern Spain, lived in UK, and has been in the US for 11 years, his cultural and Hindu upbringing = unique perspective for flavorful and cost-effective food.
He does not take compensation from restaurant, is all about employing community and mission, and will even feed those free if they can’t afford it.
Vizzi is not on X. I don’t have Instagram but you can follow them at https://www.instagram.com/eatvizzi/
I’m too far away to eat there weekly, but plan on bringing a cooler and buying a few days worth of meals next time. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — As mentioned if one insists on apparel, $ONON best of worst.
Though admittedly Nike at $35 is bounce worthy, though I want investment worthy. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — Loser x loser
$NKE $ON ↗
- 2026-09-16 — Amazon buying today.
Sometimes I buy something just to get a fresh envelope to cover the display.
Perfect size for Stairmaster, doesn’t block vents.
In addition to buying an envelope, did I buy $AMZN stock?
Perhaps. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — If your portfolio dumped, remember that advice from Skyrizi. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — Is this how you feel right now? ↗
- 2026-09-16 — If the Fed hikes, which nickname should Trump give Warsh? ↗
- 2026-09-16 — I continue to have higher conviction in $FN and $AMKR over $NVDA here.
Not because I don’t think NVIDIA can’t go to $10T.
Because I think of what if:
(1) Taiwan
(2) Competitors
With first risk, all semis tank, but what tanks less?
Amkor will rise just like $INTC on day one of naval blockade or invasion.
$FN tanks too even though they’re primarily Thailand, simply because they can’t operate due to supply chain disruption from Taiwan. However, they probably tank less.
In the event Taiwan doesn’t happen next couple years, both do well as $NVDA is 30% of Fabrinet revenue and $AMKR will be picking up significant AP biz in AZ by 2029.
As far as competitors this is where people mess up. They confuse actual encroachment vs. perception.
What mostly matters is perception of competition. How much of an actual threat it is near term doesn’t matter much, it’s just what that narrative is that weighs on share price.
In short, both companies do well if NVIDIA does well. However, they also are likely to do well regardless.
I will continue to CBO Fabrinet and likely increase position if lower comes. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — As I mentioned to @griffonomics last week, I am reluctantly back in $HONA though keeping on tight leash. I had CBO'd some shares to realize some gains and only keeping these 100, unless we head back down for a reload.
Also this week, doubled-up on $HON. A lot of people may not realize Honeywell did a 1 for 2 reverse stock split following the Aerospace spinoff. This was to keep the HON share price the same.
Since that took my 100 down to 50, had to bring it back up to 100 so it's not too ugly.
I like how a lot of quality stocks across different sectors are at Sept-Oct 2025 levels right now. ↗
- 2026-09-16 — I'm more concerned about NOT getting a hike than getting one.
If we get a hike, one would assume a dovish wait and see type talk.
If we don't, Warsh would definitely compensate for that with hawkish talk.
In short, seems a relief rally on a hike seems more likely. ↗
- 2026-09-15 — Had to look up this firm with $GEV $470 PT no one has heard of:
"Gordon Johnson has more than 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst"
Says everything you need to know though in theory, he is correct.
Not that I think it will happen. In fact through year end, fund managers will want to pad their top 10 holdings with GE Vernova so it looks like they were really winning in 2026. So barring market crash, probably among the safer highly expensive stocks thru Dec 31st. $HWM some of that, too.
Though this too will pass eventually and anyone investing pre-GFC remembers such similar cycles on that era's equivalent of $GEV.
Infra booms always look unstoppable... until they are stopped.
On these cyclical boom-bust types, shouldn't have to go 3 years out just to get a 20 PE.
Yes "this time it's different" as we're always told. ↗
- 2026-09-15 — Some days it feels like this is 90% of my comment feed and on those days, I'm just not going to bother answering. ↗
See @SayNoToTrading on X →