This reader needs JavaScript for search, threads and tags. Recent tweets from @SayNoToTrading:
- 2026-06-16 — I bought a space stock today.
Not telling you which.
I will tell you its ticker and/or name ends with a B or an S.
$SATS $RKLB $ASTS $YSS $LUNR $FLY $PL $VOYG $BKSY $VSAT ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Sold the last of my highest cost $POOL shares in the green today.
$BRK.A $BRK.B dumped which is actually a great sign. Just like their dump of $UNH in the ~$290s.
With how much I've cost basis optimized Pool Corp since last fall, these remaining 200 shares are approaching free.
$POOL is not by favorite housing stock. Not even close. It's also my worst performer in sector.
However, every time I post about these stocks, no one participates, so I've stopped.
Though, all are up quite nicely but since they're not involved with physical AI, space, or data centers, this shithole of X didn't care to discuss them when they were on extreme sale. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — I bought the next $FIX recently FYI.
Don't ask the name. Not telling lazy people who don't read my posts, or selectively like some and ignore others. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Finally decided to do some cost basis optimization on Comfort Systems $FIX today.
All shares I sold were from the $276.76 lot and what you see in it is what's left in it.
Everyone talks about $NVDA but this has been the better buy during this time. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — When Musk said this about $MSFT, I was thinking Macrohard would have to be an actual executed business, rather than just an idea, to accomplish a market cap overthrow. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — It's rare where I have Fidelity lending out a position of mine and beginning last week, they started doing so for Ferrari $RACE.
Interesting that only 34/100 shares, probably a consistent percentage across a group of client accounts.
Last year, about the only 2 securities borrowed were $CAMT and $NVMI on and off, which probably didn't work out so well for whoever was shorting. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Now that $SPCX is $212, $RKLB is $103 cheaper at $109.
It’s that simple.
Rocket Labs! ↗
- 2026-06-16 — Two!
Gonna regret this big time the next time my portfolio plunges. ↗
- 2026-06-16 — The wealth effect is real. ↗
- 2026-06-15 — Hardly put anything on Robinhood credit card last few weeks, yet still almost a hundred bucks.
Really hard to beat the 3% cash back.
One reason why my I’m not parting with my most recent $HOOD shares from the $70s last week. ↗
- 2026-06-15 — Giving $FISV a 2nd, 3rd, or 5th chance may work eventually, but why? It’s a T-word.
For buy and hold, $ADYEY $ADYEN Adyen seems like a better bet.
Sorry, not yet $FOUR which is a both an X and story stock. ↗
- 2026-06-15 — Gold $GLD has made a nice move since I posted this 4 days ago, so my buying on $WPM, $RGLD, $OR, $FNV all on hold.
@patientinvestor commented on $3,500 and I would agree that would be interesting level for gold bullion and ETFs allegedly representing such like GLD and $PHYS. For me, range would be $3,200-3,700 on that.
Reason I'm fine with adding to precious metal royalty co's even when gold is much higher than that is because their valuation got low vs. historical + they can still generate alpha, even if gold price in 3-5 years isn't too exciting. Plus, I'm factoring in silver here and increased industrial demand. ↗
- 2026-06-15 — I talked tons on $URI and $SUNB when they were at their lows so don't say I didn't.
With annual lows being in March 2 years in a row, I'm rooting for same in 2027 for another 50 shares.
Only @griffonomics I think knows which name in this niche I've bought lately. ↗
- 2026-06-15 — It's ridiculous how even when someone threatens violence against you, there are no humans at X support to intervene.
As mentioned last week, I was threatened at gunpoint by @LeoNelissen to buy $TPL so I bought.
X ignored my report.
So once again today, Leo did his thing. Energy tanking today on these preliminary discussion points of a framework of an Iran deal. At market open, Leo actually pistol-whipped me to place a buy order, so I had no choice.
When will the violence stop Leo? ↗
- 2026-06-15 — Neither $AMZN nor $META reached strong buy levels last week - especially not Meta - but do have the following:
1k new Amazon in $230s
100 new Meta in $550-560s
I was really hoping for a little lower on Amazon, as I was going to go up +2k shares at $226-229 level. I don’t need the $198-199 as my other new 2k from this year.
Amazon remains one of the best stocks on risk-adjusted basis here. NOT Meta! Don’t ask why, I’m not going to write the same thing 10 times over because you’re too lazy to search my feed. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — The little black balls are either raccoon turds or aronia berries. Not telling you which. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — I can only afford fresh raspberries a few times a year when on sale.
The rest of the time, buying software stocks on sale like $MSFT, $NOW, and even some degen-loving $PLTR at $127 is A-OK. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — Buffett quotes are cringe but this one really is my $MSFT game plan. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — This is how much I don’t give a shit about watching sports.
Investing is the ultimate sport.
Watching other sports is boring.
Playing them is great.
Watching them is a waste. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — Speaking of sports, no clue of what this soccer stuff is or people angry in NYC in my feed.
Don’t give a shit about watching sports. ↗
- 2026-06-14 — If you do T-word, you will be punished.
Did Thalia today, leash snapped.
Say no to T-word ↗
- 2026-06-13 — Some things to consider regarding the non-SpaceX space stocks selloff yesterday.
Many ETFs, funds, and money managers had bought them leading up to the IPO, especially $SATS, with the idea to rotate into $SPCX when they could.
This created an exaggerated move down on Friday. Definitely buying opportunities on some.
To show you how ridiculous these moves are, consider the NAV of EchoStar for its SpaceX stock was $122/share at the IPO price of $135.
$SATS closed Friday at $114.
Yes, holdco's should trade at discount but based on $SPCX closing price Friday, each EchoStar share = $145.50 value of SpaceX stock.
That's a 21% discount!
Will post about $RKLB and $ASTS later. Just wait 'til Barron's etc. start telling boomers about SpaceX alternatives. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Just heard them say Rocket Labs again on TV.
Still early. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — $RKLB is $103 and $SPCX is $160.
Obviously, Rocket Labs is $57 cheaper and is therefore the better buy. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — The 21st worst performing stock today is $SPXC.
Not a space stock but people were hoping it would pump, as a $SPCX typo. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Every time I glance at CNBC today, @altcap pumping SpaceX. Brad, how about actually highlighting the negatives, too?
Certainly not as much as you, but I own millions in $SPCX pre-IPO and as long as I've been on X, I've probably spoken more about the negatives than the positives. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Still down. Endless wheel of death for Legend. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Classic website down too. Wtf @vladtenev?! ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Robinhood website and app both down! ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Space stocks are the largest losers today.
However, if SpaceX opens at $170ish as currently indicated, I think we could see green on adjacent names.
$ASTS $YSS $FLY $VOYG $LUNR $RKLB $PL $RDW $SATS ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Even when you get in, you can't place orders and I'm not talking SpaceX orders. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — $SPCX IPO related traffic has taken down Fidelity's website. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Why is Musk ripping off the Jensen jacket? ↗
- 2026-06-12 — Do NOT flip your $SPCX IPO shares from Fidelity!
You get lifetime ban if you do it 3 times but @brent_e_trader got it for doing it just once.
Apparently a software glitch and customer service can't override it.
Fidelity flipping ban is linked to your Social Security number, not your account. So this is not a problem you can solve by just using different accounts.
Monday, June 29th is first safe day to sell your SpaceX stock. ↗
- 2026-06-12 — SpaceX $SPCX IPO allocation from Robinhood, how many shares did you get?
109 out of 1,000 here.
Still waiting to see what Fidelity gives me. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — (8) $TSLA will merge with $SPCX in a way to ensure or create high likelihood of Musk getting his nearly trillion dollar SBC from Tesla.
(9) I stand by my prediction of $X ticker. It has already been reserved and who do you think did that? When they merge, they will use Musk's favorite letter, the ticker used by Nippon Steel for over a century. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Revisiting my predictions last year for a SpaceX IPO $SPCX this year.
I think I did OK. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — $ADBE is worse than $NOW + $INTU combined ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Did anyone guess right? ↗
- 2026-06-11 — That’s a joke people. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — I wonder what $SPCX will price their IPO at tonight? ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Just got done cussing out Fidelity for what they said.
I called and they answer by saying "Thank you for calling Fidelity Active T-Word VIP."
Don't you fucking dare answer my call speaking profanity at me. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — I really need $TPL lower to get back into it, but I did this today because @LeoNelissen threatened me if I didn't. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Not a deal, but a deal for a deal. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Is it time to buy gold?
Now below 200-day MA and 27% off highs, is it a BTFD or a re-visit to $3,000s?
Before I answer, remember:
Physical gold and ETFs allegedly holding claims on such - e.g. $GLD $IAU - basically will just keep pace with inflation.
Yes, gold will underperform and outperform inflation over some spans - some of which are a decade or two - but the longer term data is clear:
Gains from gold = inflation
Then we have miners, which are boom-bust. Unless you get lucky with a junior who hits it big, the charts of the big guys like $NEM, $AEM, $B (previously $GOLD ticker) basically look like those of big pharma and auto manufacturers. Couple examples attached.
So precious metal miners, whether big or small, are generally T-words and not investments.
On the other hand, I do like royalty and streamer companies who are asset light and earn money from mines, without operating them.
You can search my feed for $FNV, $TFPM, $RGLD, $OR, $VOXR to see what I own and my cost basis on each. However, you probably don't have to look to know I bought at their exact lows years ago.
Now to answer your question if it's time to buy, the truth is that this field in and of itself is a full-time job.
Don't fool yourself and think you can wing it. You can't. It's so intricate, it's why I *only* own buy and hold royalty and streamer stocks. Not interested in T-word junior miners like @GrumpierBTDay! Though, I admit he is good at it, despite his sinfulness of T-wording.
Whether it's royalty plays or miners, there is someone I trust in this space and that is Taylor Dart, who I have known for years.
He is immensely popular on Seeking Alpha with over 32,000 followers and just joined X a few days ago, so I want to give him some exposure: @AlluvialGoldRes
I highly recommend you check out his Alluvial Gold Research and personally, if I were a gold T-word, I would have no problem paying for it. A lot of what he does is not info you can just derive from LLM searches. It's unique and proprietary data.
I am now adding to my gold stocks and am increasingly interested in their silver exposure too, given industrial usage is going up.
However, I have no predictions as to to the price of gold or silver in the short to mid-term. Or even 10 years from now. As with insurance, it may seem like throwing away money initially, but someday, there will come a time you're glad to have it. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — I still think the best buys in chips right now are:
$AMZN Trainium 2/3 + Graviton
$MSFT Maia + quantum wildcard Majorana
Not names you will find in $SMH. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — Yeah, I’m definitely smashing a six pack tonight, but will have to downgrade given portfolio today. ↗
- 2026-06-11 — You know this movie has multiple lessons we can apply to markets, such as this line: ↗
- 2026-06-10 — Casey's $CASY 20% earnings move is nuts.
About the only good thing in portfolio today.
To take mind off market, may I suggest watching Casey Fucking Ryback in Under Siege 2? Haven't seen that one since I was a kid. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — Even though all my shares were in the high $150s, I had absolutely no choice but to sell some $VRSK today in the $184s.
Why?
Because I knew the remaining 500 would average $157.57. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — Since $ORCL chapter 11 bankruptcy filing earlier this year, even after this drop from $240s a few days ago, we are still up 50% from the lows of 2026.
This is what has me intrigued with $CRWV, too. As much as I hate the sketchy accounting and Intrator, their recent bankruptcy filing has prompted people to write them off. They're no $NBIS but given the circular financing with $NVDA, can we really write them off so soon?
For better or worse, Oracle earnings after bell today will influence CoreWeave price action, too.
Oh and I hate how on X, need to spell it out for the dense people that my BK talk is a joke. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — $MSTR $IBIT I wonder how Chase Furey is doing these days?
Even if the money is gone, still has a furiously fun name going for him. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — Next stop for $NVDA for me is $197.
High 199s was yesterday’s low. Can’t see on chart though because it was just for a minute. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — For those who insist, electric utilities looking interesting today:
$CEG at $240
$VST at $138
Adjacent nuclear names:
$BWXT at $181
$LEU at $148 but this is more spec, they are only US company who can make HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) however valuation run is the risk, less so than business.
I don't like nuclear due to lack of waste storage in US + headline risk from accident, so out of these, would like Vistra the best. Less nuclear centric than Constellation.
Forward EPS estimates on $VST below. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — On $EROC IPO, got 50 shares. That's a great sign for demand. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — For all you buffoons who missed Bloom Energy $BE and/or the distributed energy stocks $CAT, $CMI, $GEV, and $GNRC, you're going to want to read this.
ERock $EROC IPO is tomorrow.
ERock sells low-emission, quick-response natural gas generator tech. Of interest to most of you dumb degens is their data center demand, obviously.
$1.3 billion backlog, up 780% YoY. There is customer and geographic concentration. No profits. Newer CEO from 2025 so that's not great, either.
Now to be clear, this is not the next $BE so not suggesting that. We're not talking proprietary fuel cells or anything too special. Nonetheless, might be an interesting IPO.
The bad news is it priced at $21.50 which is right in-between the $20-23 range. Not a great sign, though might be due to the minus 5% on the Qs today and Friday, so they're pricing conservatively.
Valuation of around $5B with $600M raised.
I confirmed my indication of interest for 500 shares but whenever I get allocated more than a 100, it's almost always a bad sign, neutral at best. Will report back how much $EROC stock I get tomorrow, if any.
Oh and I too am a buffoon who missed Bloom, up until Dec 17th when I got those for $80. Not that I hadn't followed company for years but just remained super skeptical, given their horrendous history. They got lucky and stumbled upon use case, not the other way around. ↗
- 2026-06-10 — A chaotic day calls for some Malibu rum.
At least that’s what I like to pretend. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Bought another 200 $HOOD today in the $79s. This is in addition to the 300 I bought on Friday in 79s.
Robinhood desperately needs to incorporate lot specification into Legend desktop @AskRobinhood.
I won't write anything on X of more than a couple sentences from phone.
However, that's the only way for me to show you lots on a stock from Robinhood.
As such, I often just won't post stuff, because it's too much of a hassle of writing on computer, saving draft, opening on phone to attach lot screenshots.
Anyway, out of those 2k shares, 500 are what I said but can't show you.
Though similar to $FICO kind of getting sick of posting this name too, because every time I unload my highest cost lots, I get a lot of hate comments and just sick of it. Just a week or so ago I told you in real-time when I unloaded in high 80s - go look at comments on that post. Now I have the shares back in the 70s. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Any drug manufacturer not owned by me, their products should be pulled from market in my opinion. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Don’t worry, market will be fine tomorrow.
I wrote it an Rx for this $ABBV drug, dosage starts tonight. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Another incomplete piece.
Why are they talking about $LMT, $BA, and $LHX when it comes to Patriot missile demand, while forgetting Karman $KRMN? ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Who was so pompous to believe that a 6-sigma event on tech stocks $XLK, $VGT, $IYW can even be calculated?
- Data is far, FAR too limited for credible 6-sigma tail claims.
- Normal distribution assumptions are garbage for stock returns.
- "Once in 4 million years" is model-dependent nonsense, not empirical fact.
- Real tail risk in equities is much higher than Gaussian models imply.
Another garbage headline from Seeking Alpha editors. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — FedEx Freight $FDXF now up a cool 30% in 7 sessions since I posted the day I was buying.
Meanwhile photonics folks getting smoked last few days. $COHR, $LITE, $GLW, $AAOI, $CIEN and so on. Would I buy them?
Sometimes, it does make sense to lose money.
By that I mean, I find it better to take a nibble if that means avoiding more destructive FOMO. As in, a little taste prevents the urge for big buying as a big run continues on a cyclical.
You see the share price charts and this is all based on unknown future demand. Not even TTM numbers.
Take $LITE example. Attached from @gurufocus. You see revenue has been flat. Won't even get into profitability.
Now it is true that year ending June 2029 numbers project over a 4x in revenue from here; $12.8B vs. $2.96B for year ending this month.
Great if true though a lot can happened between now and then for Lumentum and not necessarily through fault of their own but rather, any disruption in data center buildout boom. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — Let's say $SPCX rises 23% the first day. What effect do you think that will have on $RKLB?
I cite 23% because a $166 share price is Hyperliquid’s current for SpaceX, backed by real money:
- 4,528 traders, 3,865 are long and 663 are short, with a long-to-short ratio of 85:15
- Volume is high, with 2.333 million contracts traded and over 917,000 trades in 3 weeks.
- Open interest stands at $66.6 million, and cumulative trading volume has exceeded $450 million.
As with prediction markets vs. polling for elections, it's one thing to say a price for SpaceX IPO, it's another to put your money where your mouth is. ↗
- 2026-06-09 — I would like to buy this boat.
Whether by land or sea, I want the ability to pursue offenders who call me the T-word. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — The last 150 points down, $ADBE has been running YouTube TV ads.
Have seen this for a lot of loser stocks the past couple years.
Or at least, what have become losers.
Not thrilled to see Cloudflare $NET doing the same lately.
I do own, so no snarky comments saying I’m just a hater. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — X is focused on $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN and despite the IPO nearly a month ago, have seen almost nothing on here about Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust $BXDC.
This is more comparable to an $EQIX and $DLR, both of which I have owned for a long time. Digital Realty for almost 13 years. Date I bought = 16.39% CAGR which is an S&P beat, which as you know, is not easy for a REIT the past couple decades.
The fact that X is not talking about this boring Blackrock vehicle makes me even more interested. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — Also for X stocks were adds of $CRWV at 96-98 (200 shares) and $IREN at 51 (100). ↗
- 2026-06-08 — I said on Friday I was buying X stocks. Remember, the greater the volatility, the less time I'm going to have to write anything.
I already mentioned buying $SOFI and $MSTR in replies. Additionally:
300 $NOK at $13.96. Bought 850 Friday and sold the other 550 for gain to reduce net cost basis. I think $12ish is more appropriate. Easy to forget how far and fast this has run - 126% YTD - similar to other networking stocks.
200 $TEM at $46.13. May not keep, especially since ugly number. That's even worse than Eric Lefkofsky sketchiness.
The real focus on Friday though was big tech buying, not X stocks. Several hundred thousand spent. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — Be on right side of history.
Call the Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121 to be connected directly to your Senator's office after you enter your zip code. Leave voicemail to vote NO on any Farm Bill containing the "Save Our Bacon Act" (Section 12006).
Even Gen Z with social phobia can handle this, as the above involves no live human interaction. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — Lots of high cost lots sold from Friday.
For example on $NVDA only kept 200 of those 666. Sold pre-market at around $211.
This gives me a net cost basis of $198 on these new 200.
If we go lower on NVIDIA will increase weight, but keep in mind we were $160s very recently.
I think $180-190s would be pretty interesting as not a bargain, but decent add level. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — This is the most rigged survey ever. ↗
- 2026-06-08 — As often is the case this past year, no point in stressing over Sunday night futures. Totally ignore them.
Wait til Monday morning and then decide whether to stress or not.
For now, looks like no stress necessary! ↗
- 2026-06-07 — I always say I don’t care about Sunday futures of either direction, but too many buffoons on here insist on posting them.
As such, going to continue enjoying my Sunday and will not go on X for remainder of day!
$QQQ $SPY $VOO ↗
- 2026-06-07 — Speaking of $HOOD, I did buy on Friday as part of my charitable initiatives - this one to bail out @Ze1ooooo. ↗
- 2026-06-07 — Be warned:
The swag $HOOD Robinhood Concierge gives in exchange for your 15 minutes spent on survey = garbage disposal of unsold merch.
@AskRobinhood @vladtenev Who the hell wants this outdoor blanket?!
Oh wait, I get it.
Degens > broke > homeless > blanket to stay warm ↗
- 2026-06-06 — $NBIS is up 153% YTD and 372% over 1-year.
$SIVE $SIVEF $SIVE.ST is up 1,796% YTD and this illiquid foreign microcap has been heavily pumped by someone who has more paid subscribers than Elon Musk himself. Yet, it's "one of the best kept secrets." ↗
- 2026-06-06 — The odds that Trump announces a “deal” with Iran prior to market open Monday are not trivial. ↗
- 2026-06-06 — Whenever $QQQ is down 5% in a single day, it’s OK to take the edge off by indulging in a couple drinks of your choice.
Any brand and flavor of sparkling water you desire.
Right @adamtaggart? ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Hate $META
Just the mega cap version of an X stock.
Everyone thinks it’s a mega value.
Every time I explain when to buy, no one wants to hear it.
Still not there yet.
Not going to repeat when, as it’s in my past posts.
Nonetheless, bought 100 shares today, as merely a moderately less expensive mega cap.
As you know, $HOOD doesn’t allow for same-day lot specification.
As such, I can’t buy and sell same day. Only get one shot per day.
I bought 100 at $585.92. Ended up being the intraday bottom.
Being highest cost $META lot, subject to selling for cash per my cost basis optimization, which is NOT T-word! ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Total rubbish $SOFI is, but I bought today for one reason only…
I promised @WinnerInvestor I would buy it if he confirmed my cost basis would beat @amitisinvesting.
I am a man of my word. ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Bought 666 $NVDA but being highest cost, subject to selling on rebound as part of my cost basis optimization. Not T-word. ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Say yes to X stocks
*Some ↗
- 2026-06-05 — Buying some X stocks today. ↗
- 2026-06-05 — While Nasdaq is down 3%, the number one gainer on the S&P today is FedEx Freight $FDXF at +9%.
But, no one cared about this 5 days ago, because it's not related to bottlenecks in photonics.
Yet, trucking - especially LTL - is a bottleneck. Plus, the re-rating vs. $ODFL, $SAIA, and $XPO after spin.
Though, it's too boring for X, and such posts are becoming increasingly a waste of time. ↗
- 2026-06-05 — We all know GAAP is almost never used, but what I find especially disingenuous is when even pros cite a forward multiple that is 1.5+ years out, and they act like it's next fiscal year close.
e.g. $NVDA is not 17x like you keep hearing.
You have to go out to the fiscal year ending Jan 2028 to get that.
Yet, so many people don't check these basics, so they hear someone say "NVIDIA at 17 PE" and run with it. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Don't own $DOCU or $TTAN but rooting for good earnings today, to boost software sector.
Do own $IOT, $RBRK, $GWRE. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Written shortly before the Ciena $CIEN earnings plunge today, I just came across this great article on Seeking Alpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4908708-ciena-the-right-stock-at-the-wrong-price
Everything he wrote is almost exactly how I've felt regarding the stock lately.
Wanted to give this author, Wail Shudar, a plug because I see he's new and would like to support him. He's a CFA candidate, degrees in Computer Science and Data Science, and Harvard alumnus. Doesn't appear to be on X. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Now that $FDXF has been spun-off from $FDX, I really think $SHOP should reconsider fulfillment like $AMZN FBA.
As you should recall, Shopify was trying to do fulfillment in 2020/2021 and then gave up. That was the right decision.
However, if $SHOP at $150B market cap did an all-stock acquisition of $FDX ($79B) it could create a powerhouse.
Math makes even more sense if $SHOP stock recovers to say, $140-150. That's still far from Oct and Dec highs of $170+.
Shopify needs an extensive network. FedEx needs to quit losing market share to Prime. Benefits both.
Currently, they just connect you with 3rd parties like Flexport and DHL via 3PL Partner Network. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — $RDW Redwire up for growing red berries. Hilarious. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — I still am quite amused how @joecarlsonshow blocked me last summer when $MA was a $100 higher, simply for leaving a nice and polite comment discussing a lower level for adding. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Messed up majorly on Mastercard $MA yesterday.
You know I've been saying I wanted to see $470s for some time now. So when we got $460s, even better.
I didn't do my first buy yesterday until $465.65 and then again at $464.64. Bottom was $464.52. These were about an hour after market open.
Not only did I miss the exact bottom by over $1 on those higher cost 200, but after I sold my highest cost shares in green this morning, I thought the remaining would equal exactly $382.00. Off by a penny and now an ugly $181.99, should I sell to fix it? ↗
- 2026-06-04 — I hate how the degen culture of X cashtags $QNT to crypto crap. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Got a 25 share allocation on the Quantinuum $QNT IPO at $60. Wish they would have just spun it off to $HON shareholders.
Just as with Cerebras $CBRS IPO, what's really strange is that I put in multiple indications of interest across accounts at Fidelity and they only give it on this one.
It's the smallest account and least active by far. It's not the oldest account, either. So I can't figure out why it's getting IPO allocations vs. others. I haven't violated flipping policy in many years, I'm talking pre-Covid, so that's not it. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — Can’t wait to full port into $SPCX next Friday at $4B valuation. I’m going to be so rich. ↗
- 2026-06-04 — If you don’t like how your portfolio looks today, don’t worry, I can help.
On Robinhood, change your default chart view from one-day to YTD.
Problem solved. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — Us humans have been quite haughty to think we are the only ones in the animal kingdom with oral language.
If we, as babies, were separated from our mothers at birth and raised in an isolated setting, what would we look and sound like?
Gibberish noises, not words. Our physical movements similar to other primates. We would look and sound stupid AF if we were the caged animals in a factory farm.
It's why wild dolphin pods, elephant herds, and wolf packs, we respect their intelligence and feelings, while pretending factory farm animals don't have the same. In actuality, testing proves otherwise. They just can't conspicuously express it in such a setting.
I do hope AI language learning of non-humans leads to greater respect for those we share this planet with. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — Can you imagine your name being the a CEO’s, Mr. Limp?
As if the gods destined Blue Origin for performance issues. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — New Glenn will not fly again in 2026?
The Angry Astronaut generally knows his stuff.
If accurate, good news for Rocket Lab $RKLB as they progress Neutron, while Blue Origin lags.
Someone watch this, I don’t have time. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — I told you last week the day I started buying Progressive $PGR again.
This remains one of my favorite stocks. As AI has totally overshadowed boring businesses like this, many have missed the incredible development that happened in 2026.
State Farm was the largest auto insurer in the US for 84 years, from 1942 until this year, when Progressive dethroned.
State Farm is a mutual and similar to credit union, technically owned by their policyholders. Sounds great until you realize their balance sheet is garbage (has been consistently in the 21st century) and as such, they just can't compete effectively with $PGR and $BRK.A $BRK.B Geico.
While I don't invest for dividends anymore, as a bonus, seems most people fail to realize the fat yield Progressive has. They see the 20 bps figure and think it's nothing, but $PGR often - though not every year - pays out one-time annual dividends which at today's low valuation, equates to around 6%.
A few months ago, I got $13k dividend for owning 1k shares.
Now with this latest buying, I have gone up to 1,500 shares.
While P&C insurers should trade at a very low PE, the highest quality generally do not. $PGR is at around 10x. Median is over 15 for last 30 years and during boom times - like coming out of Covid - in the 20s. That's excluding 2022-2023 accounting noise of very high PE. ↗
- 2026-06-03 — Finally! Robinhood $HOOD is bringing contingent beneficiaries later this month.
@AskRobinhood @vladtenev will you also allow % specification for each and ability to designate entities - e.g. non-profits? Please see my post below as to what a lot of people need. ↗
- 2026-06-02 — I know Tempus AI $TEM has gotten renewed interest and become an X stock once again.
Points to consider:
1. #1 institutional bull is Ms. Wood
2. 20% short interest
3. 30% of you (at most) were around to see the life and death of the many predecessors
To be clear, these are not positives.
I'm not talking future $TEM stock price in months or quarters.
I'm talking viability of business model, not share price. Just because momentum could drive it up, that doesn't mean it's an investment. ↗
- 2026-06-02 — If perpetual futures from $COIN and Kalshi are contributors to $CBOE 22% plunge in 5 days, as some headlines suggest, then why is Coinbase down?
Because Bitcoin is in dumps and we all know these perps are trivial to $COIN anyway.
A lot of dumb moves like this today. ↗
- 2026-06-02 — @LeoNelissen Don't you really like one of the exchanges going back years? Can't remember if it was $CBOE or which one.
I know you like $MIAX but I'm not talking that. ↗
- 2026-06-02 — For the thematic/sector rotation selloff in financial infrastructure and capital markets stocks, it seems $MA is the X stock.
However similar to how $NOW is the X stock for SaaS, there are so many others of equal and greater quality no one really talks about on here.
Today we have $CBOE, $CME and $ICE down big. I'll talk about that last one.
Intercontinental Exchange operates 12 regulated exchanges and marketplaces worldwide, most notably NYSE. Still founder-led.
Jeffrey Sprecher founded the company after purchasing the struggling Continental Power Exchange in 1997 for just $1,000. Is that someone you want to bet against?
Everyone wants to be in Nasdaq $NDAQ so they get passive flows, such as QQQ, and that has been a drag on NYSE. Though, NYSE not going anywhere. Popularity of this exchange picks up during tech routs.
Say no to T-word but yes to the casinos which enable it. ↗
- 2026-06-02 — Everyday I get notifications of random people adding me to lists like “best T-word” and “elite T-word” and there’s no way for me to opt out.
STOP IT!
I’M NOT A DAMN T-WORD!!! ↗
- 2026-06-01 — When it comes to the 2 recent A-deals in networking: $ANET and $APH.
Ok not deals but as I said, least expensive.
Since my posts about buying earnings drop, we have recovered on Arista and Amphenol.
On $ANET I’ve seen some misunderstandings vs. $NVDA. What I said last week:
Arista XPO is an open-standard coalition with over a 100 partners, including $MRVL, $COHR, and $LITE.
NVIDIA XPO/networking is proprietary, works with theirs only.
Arista could be good hedge if you think NVIDIA GPU market share shrinks.
Any other networking stocks in the not insanely expensive category, that aren’t commoditized cyclicals? ↗
- 2026-06-01 — Who's following FedEx Freight $FDXF spinoff which finally happened today?
This was #1 reason I've kept $FDX but sold my $UPS couple years ago.
The theoretical value of the distributed stake implied an initial $FDXF price in the mid-to-high $170s range. As typical with spin-offs, they get sold and right now we're $150s.
Estimated FY2026 revenue: $8.7B (largest North American LTL carrier by revenue).
It carries major debt due to a $4.1B cash dividend paid to FedEx pre-spin.
Old Dominion $ODFL: EV/EBITDA 25–27x, PE 43–47x. Superior operating ratio 72–75% range historically/recently and consistent execution.
Saia $SAIA and $XPO: Also premium high 40+ PE, strong EV/EBITDA, with growth/margin stories.
Potential $FDFX catalysts:
- Immediate S&P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation Average inclusion (index buying).
- Pure-play LTL focus vs. being buried inside $FDX .
- Potential for margin/ROIC improvement under dedicated management and capex/IT focus.
-Long-term re-rating opportunity if it narrows the efficiency gap toward $ODFL $SAIA levels.
I added 50 shares simply because the 50 I got is too small.
Similar to a semiconductor IPO, hard to think of a better time in recent history to do a trucking IPO/spinoff. ↗
- 2026-06-01 — These are daily now from different numbers for Anthropic stock.
Robocalls/texts for investment “opportunities” e.g. real estate often a bad sign. ↗
- 2026-06-01 — Procter & Gamble $PG back at lows today - $139.
I have no interest in adding more - buys from 2018 and 2015 - but for those who want a bond proxy, may be of interest.
Highly likely to lag S&P, as it has done this century, so one should not expect it to keep up over next 10-20 years.
I bought at exact multi-year lows and despite having the best entries, horrific performance even for what it is.
Cutting through the PE noise and looking at EBIT (not EBITDA) you can see current and forward are 16ish. Long term chart of that from @gurufocus. Also included same for PE. Forward on that just under 20.
While normally $PG would be counted as safety stock, it's hard to say if that would hold as long as input costs (petroleum - plastics and energy) remain so elevated.
You can search my posts to see why $COST Kirkland, $AMZN brands, and similar have changed the story for Procter & Gamble. Store-brands are no longer thought of as inferior.
Other than Gillette, no brand they offer is a must-have for me. Even then, I only stock up razors during deals like Prime Day. ↗
- 2026-06-01 — Don't overthink it.
Buy $SPCE now because on $SPCX IPO people will accidentally buy it?
Buy $ZOOM because people think it's $ZM during Covid?
Not games I'll play, but still useful.
A useful reminder that, never overestimate the intelligence of the market in short-term. ↗
- 2026-05-31 — Future generations will look back at how we treated animals as intelligent as 3-year old humans (way smarter than any dog) the same way we look back at slavery, racism, women’s rights, and similar denials of basic natural rights.
You inherently know those things are wrong but if you lived in past generations, you went along with them, because culture corrupted you to believe they were justified.
If you eat ham, bacon, or pork you are part of the problem today. Demand drives supply.
You may say “I am only one person, a drop in bucket, what does it matter what I eat?”
You could have used exact same logic to be a slave owner, or even today to rape and kill a person… just 1 out of 8.3 billion people, so does it matter?
“So our animals can’t turn around for the 2.5 years that they are in the stalls producing piglets,” a pork producers spokesman said in 2012. “I don’t know who asked the sow if she wanted to turn around.”
By the way, they are slaughtered immediately after that, so these mothers only lived a life of hell. ↗
- 2026-05-31 — How does $HOOD not have this? All my other brokers show estimated annual yield on monthly statements. ↗
- 2026-05-31 — Might be the final straw with Fidelity.
Working on Q2 taxes due June 15th and I noticed on statements they started calling me an active T-word VIP.
FUCK YOU FIDELITY!!!! ↗
- 2026-05-30 — You just won a 2-week, all-expenses-paid vacation to Los Angeles. But there’s a catch: you have to stay within one region the whole time. What are you picking?
According to the $250B valued @xai Grok, you can choose beachfront in Studio City, WeHo East, or DTLA in Sherman Oaks. ↗
- 2026-05-30 — When looking at an ETF, always dig deeper than top 10 holdings!
$NASA has been super hot for space stocks and when you look at top 10, it appears Rocket Lab $RKLB is 11%, followed by 5-6% for each of the following; $PL, $LUNR, $ASTS, $SATS, $FLY. SpaceX $SPCX stock is reflected at 6.54% via an SPV.
However if you download all of the ETF holdings and look at the spreadsheet, it shows 11.43% for SpaceX.
That's because they don't bother to update the value, last calculated May 5th per spreadsheet.
So to truly figure out the NAV per share of $NASA ETF, you really need to do some homework and even then, not accurate.
It looks like to increase SpaceX exposure, they bought a lot more $SATS since May 5th. When combined, those values do equal around that 11-12% for SpaceX. That was their only option as ETF surged in popularity and they weren't able to procure more SPV exposure.
This isn't splitting hairs. Holding companies can chronically trade at discount to actual assets, so you shouldn't value $SATS NAV dollar for dollar to $SPCX. ↗
- 2026-05-30 — I hate how pretty much all insurers now charge a credit card processing fee. All implemented such policies 2022-2024.
Remember the good ol' days where you signup for a big card bonus that gives $1k+ or equivalent after spending $10k or $20k?
I would do those a couple times a year and an insurance bill with it. One transaction = $1,000+ free. Would never use the card again and cancel shortly thereafter.
Now, the best you can do is earn 0.01% with $HOOD Robinhood credit card earning 3.00% on the 2.99% processing charge. ↗
- 2026-05-30 — To succeed at IPO in 1999, you just added .com to name.
The 2026 version is Blackstone-owned garbage rebranded as http://Liftoff.ai $LFTO, offering shares to practically every retail broker in existence.
What do you think of doing this with literal garbage?
LBO of $WM and take public again as http://Garbage.ai?
I think it could be in the trillion dollar club on day one. ↗
- 2026-05-30 — Fidelity has NEVER sent me anything, except rudeness on phone calls (when I can reach them). ↗
- 2026-05-30 — Not sure what this is about. What free goodies is Robinhood $HOOD sending out these days? ↗
- 2026-05-29 — I know Rigaku $RGKAF was something @ChrisCamillo highlighted a couple months ago, but you know Onto Innovation now owns 27%.
I would not buy $ONTO today but gun to head, would rather buy more of it than a Japanese stock.
Kind of like $AMZN for Anthropic exposure over some SPV on Hiive etc. at 35% premium + 5% fee.
Pic taken from @nrossolillo Chip Stock Investor on YT. ↗
- 2026-05-29 — This one was looking for 10 accredited investors. Message before that was 5.
When people are getting spam texts peddling Anthropic and OpenAI SPVs, what does that say about stage of market we’re in? ↗
- 2026-05-29 — Only one stock from the top 10 losers today is a buy: $AMBA $BRAI $GAP $ASTS $AEO $KRMN $FLNC $CECO $INFQ $AXTI ↗
- 2026-05-29 — The $ASTS plunge makes some sense, but not so much $RKLB.
What's bad for Blue Origin should be good for Rocket Lab. ↗
- 2026-05-29 — $COIN $HOOD $SCHW $BULL
Is “just 0.75%” what people really pay to buy and sell $ETH and bitcoin:native?!
I am even less enthusiastic as to Schwab’s share price, despite being at 52-week low. ↗
- 2026-05-29 — Simple to do and you can do this 24 hours a day. You enter zip code and it directs you to mailboxes of your reps. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — I really don’t get the Trump accounts move today on $HOOD. I mean, why did people sell it off on the announcement? ↗
- 2026-05-28 — These early dividends from Robinhood $HOOD are just one more thing that will pull dividend/income people away from Schwab $SCHW and Fidelity.
On these $JNJ shares, you normally wouldn't receive dividend until June 9th. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Who says the pursuit of prettiness doesn’t pay?
My share count of $MDB was super ugly at 333, so the +67 shares a month ago at $218.60 brought to pretty round 400.
I did however mess up average but that’s not my fault - order filled below limit. Otherwise would be pretty. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Did another big unload of $HOOD shares today.
These are shares I bought after earnings.
What pisses me off is my math is once again off by a penny. Thought these left were going to hit $58.58.
So sick of continuously messing up my cost basis. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Also sick of people on here who have asked 20 times every other day if I'm buying/selling an X stock with absolutely NOTHING ever to share aside from that.
I'm not replying to these people anymore. I'm not here to be your advisor or therapist.
Share useful shit or go away. Everyone has insight. You can be poor and still have a job or some niche you're exposed to, with boots-on-ground feedback to share. Don't just come here to ask if I'm buying something. Answering these less and less from people who offer nothing in return or tell me what they're doing.
https://x.com/SayNoToTrading/status/2037964097963368785?s=20 ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Heico $HEI $HEI.A earnings were yesterday and I haven't seen a single post in my feed all day about them!!
This is what I hate most about X. Everyone talks about the same things.
Those same things are going to kill them when there's a rotation and they are all-in on them.
I told you when I was buying $HEI.A a few weeks ago (now up 28%) but those are the posts that get no views, 5 likes, and little to no engagement back... so why should I continue sharing if people aren't going to reciprocate with knowledge/insight on them? X would rather talk about shitcos. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Remember this is CBO and NOT T-word!!!!! ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Doing some cost basis optimization on Progressive $PGR this morning but might have to stop after hitting $171.71. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Decided to sell underwater $NOW shares this morning. Last buys were April 9-10th so well past wash sale window.
Took $68k loss vs. $48k in unrealized gains, so still down $20k.
Reason I sold $NOW *now* vs. later is because earnings July 22nd. This gives me time 31+ days from now to buy more before earnings, if I so choose.
Remember I have been in ServiceNow for years. Waiting for breakeven on shares from last year, even though they were purchased at 2025's 52 week lows, is tying up capital for a far-fetched hope.
Similar to $UNH last year and $INTU this year, those who have not been in these stocks for many years and therefore, aren't sitting on any losing lots, have a much different risk perspective.
In no way is my thinking on $NOW any different than last week, last month, or even last quarter. This is just risk management.
What you don't want to do is force weight on a loser and increase exposure too much, in hope of making it back. That's where most people get into trouble. Forced weighting is not good, it should grow large organically. ↗
- 2026-05-28 — Are you thinking of moving to LA?
Anytime I'm thinking of moving back, I just watch a few minutes of German in Venice.
https://youtu.be/pu1EH0WIgmk ↗
- 2026-05-28 — I’ve repeatedly said I hate Snowflake and $SNOW earnings of +36.7% don’t change that.
This is still a major loser. ↗
- 2026-05-27 — I added 100 to Rollins $ROL today.
I hate this company and not going to write out why, as it's well explained in my feed.
I fear this could be like $AZO and many others where you have a thesis you hope is wrong but ultimately, it turns out right.
Rather my main motive for adding is that as it has lagged so much, it shrinks to be such a tiny holding, almost worth cutting to save screen real estate.
Though, I'm not ready to give up on it yet - this is still a short-term hold so far in my opinion - so I'll add 100 shares and as you see, I chose a price for $ROL today which takes average to $37.37 so at least that part of it is nice.
You can see I bought the exact multi-year bottom on Rollins in 2023. This was not a cost optimized price, just a single day of 2 buys. I didn't start aggressively cost optimizing until more recently.
If we got an earnings selloff, might add a bit more. ↗
- 2026-05-27 — Am actually hoping for a $MRVL earnings miss so I am round this up to 1,000 shares. ↗
- 2026-05-27 — $ASTS $SHOP $RKLB $PLTR $SOFI X won't let me do a poll on a quoted post, but I need to know if you think this sounds like a sincere apology?
Or must the war go on? ↗
- 2026-05-27 — At a 52 week low, Schwab $SCHW I've been noticing.
I bought during the 2023 banking scare. There was actually mainstream talk of them going under similar to Silicon Valley and First Republic.
Currently I am not interesting in adding because I fail to see evidence to suggest they will beat S&P over next decade.
They face the issue of being a legacy broker, which youngins are not choosing, as well as multiple compression potential.
PE chart from @gurufocus. With $HOOD taking market share, $IBKR continuing its thing, is there a good reason why $SCHW should not trade at 12-14x moving forward? ↗
- 2026-05-27 — The internet has gotten completely unusable without a VPN ad blocker.
Had to turn it off to do an order on Vitacost - they block VPNs completely. So do many $NET sites.
Forgot it was off and clicked an article on Marketwatch, which took me to the source on IBD and this is what loaded.
Whole fucking screen is ads. Don't even know which to click out of first, so I just left. ↗
- 2026-05-27 — $VRRM market cap now $500M and revenue guide, after $CAR loss, is $1B.
Sounds cheap until you realize they have a billion in debt. ↗
- 2026-05-27 — Verra Mobility $VRRM went public via SPAC but long before the SPAC boom, in 2018. Their tech does tolls, red light tickets, things like that.
Avis Budget $CAR ended contract and stock is down around 70% today.
Never owned but have had it on a watch list for at least 5 years. I'll probably take it off now.
Seems this another AI-disrupted company. They were early gen AI, back when it was machine/deep learning. Reminds me of $PATH in many ways - good company but not something holding up with newer and superior competitors built AI-first. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — Firefly Aerospace $FLY is issuing new shares + AE Industrial dumping some.
Not surprised and I think this is a good move into strength, similar to $RKLB announcing that secondary last week.
What does concern me about $FLY is what I wrote about in December, below. To most people buying this, it's a ticker, not a company. Not seeing people doing their homework, they're just following the hype without knowing what it is and if it's justified. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — What do $HOOD, $IREN, and $BTC have in common?
You just have to go back to Q3 last year, so many people on here talked about them daily, with a fervent religious commitment. Claimed they were in them for long term.
I have been surprised to discover in recent weeks that not only have many or most of these accounts stopped talking about these stocks/Bitcoin, but they also sold out and have done a 180; from highly interested, to vowing to never touch.
What has really changed though?
$HOOD - Nothing regarding the LT thesis has changed since these people were pumping it at $110-140 at insane valuation. As far as business (not stock price) if you're looking out to 2030s, anything that has happened between then and now is totally immaterial to this thesis. Just noise.
$IREN - I was very critical of this company in Q3 and Q4. As I posted last week, now I've bought some at $46. The fact is the new negatives since (dilution before demand, etc.) are no worse than the many other negatives we all know about this company. Last year whenever I brought up the negatives, people didn't want to hear it and denied it. Now, they're denying the good since they've sold out.
$BTC - Bitcoin thesis, whether you believe it or not, has not changed since Q3. The only thing I can think of is the timeline of quantum threat continues to make headway but nothing new. Has Bitcoin thesis changed or has a shinier object of chips stolen the spotlight?
When the facts change, you can change your mind. Though for a lot of this, the only change is sentiment and its influence on these people. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — Been asked about $AZO a lot today. I can just recycle what I said in January and shows in current earnings: ↗
- 2026-05-26 — This also speaks volumes to what a dismal failure Grok has been so far. That capacity was built for it, not competitors. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — The most surprising thing form the $SPCX S-1?
That Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly through May 2029 (up to $45 billion total) for access to computing resources at Colossus 1 and Colossus 2, after Elon said this: ↗
- 2026-05-26 — Also did this for $RDW today at around $23. Sold my highest cost 500 (from $8.50ish) to optimize the remaining 2k shares.
NOT T-word. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — $QXO at a pretty price of $17.17 for those not in the name, however I will only be keeping my new 1k shares and not these 300 highest cost.
I did post when I bought these 1k at $15.52 in a reply. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — With $10k gains on those highest cost 200, it's like having these other 1k $ASTS at $55. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — As always, cost basis optimization means highest cost lots are subject to selling.
Of the 1,200 $ASTS I bought 3 weeks ago, 200 were at $70.
Those 200 were just sold to optimize the cost basis on remaining 1,000.
NOT T-word. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — Are we still early on $RKLB?
Consider that both Faber and Cramer are saying "Rocket Labs" multiple times over right now.
Still not a household name, even among financial news anchors. ↗
- 2026-05-26 — Once $TSLA Tesla Roadster is out, why would you choose Ferrari Luce? ↗
- 2026-05-25 — "I had to triple-check it's not made by Honda."
...and unlike $HMC, if you hit this, you're on the hook for damages of up to $720k (650k + tax).
Between gen Z going with McLaren and millennials opting for those and Lambos, is the Ferrari thesis finally breaking? Time to sell $RACE stock? ↗
- 2026-05-25 — The time to BUY stocks will be when I’m the one drinking Fiji.
Last bottle I had was when I was in Fiji taking a mud bath.
All kinds of deals like $META at $100 which yes, I bought. ↗
- 2026-05-25 — It's officially time to sell.
On Friday's Basis Points podcast, @amitisinvesting busted out Fiji, which is even more bougie than the blue bottle. ↗
- 2026-05-25 — It's too bad the market holiday isn't Wed. ↗
- 2026-05-25 — After this, walked to my friend’s who lives on T-word and she hooked me up with a couple cups of coffee.
If you actually thought I was talking about the other T-word, you need to get your dirty mind out of the gutter. ↗
- 2026-05-25 — I do T-word on occasion, as I did this morning.
Trafalgar, best known as T-Street, is a reliable break. ↗
- 2026-05-24 — Some statements by @anthonynoto that concerned me in the @basispointpod episode yesterday.
- When discussing price to tangible book, discussing how $SOFI shouldn't trade at 2x or less and alluding to 5-6x when matched against what $AXP peaks at.
- Similarly, likening them to $JPM price to book which yes, is insanely expensive since 2023 recovery, now around 2.8x, but you we can't really compare any bank to them in terms of size, scale, and safety. $SOFI I believe is around 2.25-2.3x right now.
- Being 2nd best (or less) at everything and being #1 at nothing. I appreciate they have irons in the fire but they need to focus on becoming #1 at something, before trying to be #1 at everything at same time. Great if they can do that but it rarely goes that way.
- As I had joked for years, they are largely a student loan refi operation that was masquerading as an all-in-one financial institution. This was admittedly harsh and is no longer accurate, though it is a meaningful slice.
- Sofi credit card not competitive or marketed properly. Seriously they should have just asked me how to do this. Doubt you can find a one-man business responsible for more organic credit card conversions for $JPM, $C, $COF, $AXP, $BAC than my track record pre-retirement. ↗
- 2026-05-24 — 1/3 of revenue is secret.
Secret = nice moat. ↗
- 2026-05-24 — Was asked about London Marathon and now that I'm catching up on comments from desktop, don't see it.
Yes, from 2019. Stored at vacation home for years until 2023. Didn't really start wearing them until last year and only then, once in a while. Trying to keep them pretty. ↗
- 2026-05-24 — What is my favorite space stock to buy today?
Is it $RKLB, $ASTS, $FLY, $LUNR, $RDW, $SPCX?
None of the above.
All you degens on here focus on dreams of upside, while ignoring the nightmare potential of a cascade decline.
If you had to buy any of the above stocks at today's valuations and hold for 1 year, your confidence of them being at or near current prices or higher would be optimistic to say the least.
Looking further out, it gets even riskier. The potential for SpaceX to crash the party eventually is very real.
That doesn't mean $SPCX may not stay up here, especially forced buying following index inclusions keeps demand going for months past IPO. In sympathy, Rocket Lab and others may continue getting bid up. Though eventually that all ends and then what?
When we have another growth bear market as we did after 2021, these names could fall hard and take a long time to recover, even if their underlying businesses continue to execute just fine.
That's why, even though I own all of the above names (including 7-figures in SpaceX) I would not buy today. That doesn't mean I don't like them but rather, the downside risks are too great for increasing their exposure and holding.
My favorite space stock today is Northrop Grumman $NOC.
Now you may know them best for the B-2 and its successor the B-21, the center fuselage for F-35 (even though everyone associates $LMT with that aircraft), and the new Sentinel system replacing the current Minuteman III (in service for 50+ years).
However, space systems = 26% of revenue and includes satellites, space payloads, launch vehicles/boosters, missile defense interceptors, and space exploration/support.
Key programs = Graphite Epoxy Motor 63 (GEM 63), Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), Space Development Agency (SDA) satellites, Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), SLS Booster, and various classified programs.
Also don't forget they co-developing Eclipse, a new medium launch rocket, with Firefly Aerospace $FLY.
When $RKLB was an EV of a couple billion, I said $NOC should buy them as even at a huge premium, it would be a steal and the best fit among the primes. In the next bear market, I would not be surprised to see them buy Firefly if they continue to execute well.
If you think AST SpaceMobile's satellites are complicated, they're nothing compared to the James Webb Space Telescope that $NOC built. The accordion arrays on $ASTS BlueBird satellites are simple compared to the Webb's deployment sequence.
For you chip chasing degens, don't forget Northrop owns and operates domestic foundries crucial to national security.
Being arguably the highest quality among the prime defense contractors, Northrop has rarely been cheap, but it is cheap relative to recent history.
Lumpiness in how contracts are paid, further exasperated by all the govt shutdowns and payments delayed by quarters, means that if you are trying to value it by looking at superficial financial metrics, you will miss what's really going on. First 2 screenshots from Gurufocus. ↗
- 2026-05-24 — Was too lazy to dig up post but @IldefonsoVilar just liked it so here it is. ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Is DRAM and NAND really that different than cocoa prices?
In some ways, it isn't.
I told you this nonsense would end for $HSY and all would be just fine over a year ago.
It's not a matter of if, but when memory prices come down.
That doesn't mean there's not more upside in
$MU $SNDK $DRAM $STX $WDC, but chasing the last legs is not the game I play.
To mitigate the replies, including $LRCX and $MU positions, plus there are others. Don't know why it's so unusual on here for people to talk negatively about stocks and sectors they own. You should be unbiased, regardless of your ownership or lack thereof. ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Trump keeps saying Iran is begging for a deal, but terms aren't good enough.
In similar way, @amitisinvesting wants ceasefire, but it doesn't sound very sincere and apologetic.
So not only am I NOT accepting a truce, I will be escalating big time.
Whether it's $ASTS, $PLTR, $RKLB, $SOFI, or another stock we're both buying, I'm going to hit him so hard and so fast, he won't know what's coming.
I will stop at nothing short of complete obliteration. ↗
- 2026-05-23 — (media) ↗
- 2026-05-23 — If @amitisinvesting confirms this is his current cost basis (he could have bought a lot more), then I’ll buy $SOFI this week.
I will also drive up the share price immediately after, so I look like a genius, while making Amit’s timing look sloppy.
I will win. ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Let’s see sales through the roof on these! ↗
- 2026-05-23 — Looksmaxxing with facial bone smashing is so last year.
2026 is all about shin smashing.
Similar to jaw and cheekbones, goal is to create angular ridge on front of tibia.
Now that I own 200 shares of Stryker $SYK at $285, I’m promoting this practice big time. ↗
- 2026-05-22 — If I were a terrible T-word, which I most definitely am NOT but theoretically speaking, I would buy cruise lines stocks $NCLH, $RCL.
Not $CCL because they are geared towards lowest price cruises. That means they have 3 potential whammies rather than just 2:
- Increased fuel costs
- Hantavirus and others
- Broke customers
Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH has mid-tier (under namesake brand) and high-end Oceania and Regent Seven Seas. If you've ever sailed on the latter two you know:
- Average passenger age is in the 70s
- Almost all indulge in extreme gluttony and drinking, not caring about tomorrow because they have money.
- Conversely, almost all think they are living forever and book these $50-150k+ cruises 3 years in advance... as if booking them somehow ensures they will survive that long.
Royal Caribbean $RCL are mostly lowbrow too, but not as much as Carnival Cruises $CCL. However that lower income customer, the drawback is probably offset by the much uglier balance sheet of $NCLH.
Financials from @gurufocus.
Not as a T-word but as an investment, I would very much be open to owning Viking Holdings $VIK stock at the right price, though it's far above that level today. ↗
- 2026-05-22 — One of the very few banks I will own is Goldman Sachs $GS, which hit 4-digits today. With dividends that's probably 260% since the banking scare 2.5 years ago.
Kind of surprising they got lead on $SPCX IPO. You know historically, Elon's vast margin borrowing has been through Morgan Stanley $MS, so I'm guessing moving forward, Goldman gets that and offered an insane rate to do so. ↗
- 2026-05-22 — I watched this great $INTU earnings breakdown while on Stairmaster yesterday.
I appreciate @UnrivaledInvest that you now say within the first couple minutes your thesis of bull/bear/neutral on a given stock.
Had to say the same to another ex-Angeleno, AJ @OMGTheWhyFiles who now does that with new formats. Hate it when he would tell 40 minutes later the story was just a hoax! ↗
- 2026-05-22 — You can see my past posts on $BJ, $COST, and $WMT but in summary:
Bought 1,350 shares (split-adjusted) of Walmart at 2015 lows, which has had greater return than Costco since that time - around 600% with dividends.
Bought 100 shares of Costco on December 16th at $846, which was the 52 week low. Took criticism as if people think I don't understand the multiple expansion with both of these names.
Someday both of these stocks will trade at PE of 1/2 to 1/3, maybe even 1/4, of what they are at today. However, if that someday is many years away, you may still get alpha despite multiple compression.
Bought 100 BJ's Wholesale Club in 2023 lows. With $BJ earnings dip today, I am adding 100 more shares.
I should have paid $86.86 instead of $85.85 because that would have given me a $74.74 average. Being so ugly, no promise I'll keep these highest cost 100.
BJ's is no $WMT or $COST. It's more like a Smart & Final here in California. Not a store people NEED to shop at (Walmart) or a store people love (Costco). Still, worth monitoring, given valuation is reasonable and it has potential.
Being small cap and more volatile, hard to say how it will hold up in flee to safety, but I'm willing to bet it will perform similar to $UNH, $ELV, and similar domestic-oriented companies linked to mandatory spending. ↗
- 2026-05-22 — Investing isn't about the money.
It's about the game.
I couldn't care less I'm up 58% and $46k on $ASTS in a couple weeks.
I care about winning.
The main reason I bought is because @amitisinvesting had the balls to think he could beat me on cost basis.
Admit defeat Amit. ↗
- 2026-05-22 — I am growing increasingly offended having to see such vulgar language in my username.
To be family-friendly, should I censor this profanity and change to Say No To T-word? ↗
- 2026-05-21 — Forgot to mention $CBOE.
I agree with Grok that $ICE is best fit. $NDAQ would be a stretch but you just never know. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — If you think valuation compression on SaaS is brutal, have you looked at $MKTX and $TW lately?
Financials from Gurufocus.
Your outlook for them will vary, depending on where you think rates are going, and whether you prefer Treasuries and munis vs. corporate bond trading.
I've said it before and I'll say it again... I could definitely see MarketAxess being acquired by $ICE or $CME, perhaps but less likely $NDAQ. A couple other suitors come to mind, too. Down here it would be accretive, even at large premium.
Not only are multiples low, but consider the profitability metrics:
$MKTX = 60% gross margin, 41% operation, and 36% net.
$NDAQ is 44%, 30%, and 23% respectively. $ICE is closer to MarketAxess but still lags on all 3. Only $CME beats.
I have this episode on my watchlist for gym tomorrow: https://youtu.be/8FkOUVCuYMY ↗
- 2026-05-21 — @nikitabier please fire both of my secretaries and my backup account. Don't understand why your system is so dumb as to not simply block accounts using same profile pic.
Simple = ban accounts with duplicate profile pics, except the one with the oldest upload date. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — When it comes to non-hyperscalers, $ORCL vs. $NBIS vs. $CRWV vs. $IREN?
Okay so Oracle may be grouped in with $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOG past 1-2 years, but given their more dicey financial situation, still counting them as more spec.
Since I feel like I'm playing with house money on Oracle, Nebius, CoreWeave, this week I decided to start a position in IREN.
No need to discuss the many negatives, we all know them. No need to compare to Nebius, we know it's quite different. Not going to regurgitate all we already know.
Rather I'm asking the opposite - what if we're wrong, AI data center demand doesn't wane, and IREN ends up working well too?
Though because it's by far lowest conviction, it's the last stock in the group I've added. Lowest $ amount too.
That's how I like to buy stocks - buy high conviction first. Once you have those working, then you branch out into the higher spec, just in case your bearishness ends up being wrong on them. By weighting accordingly, you're not hurt if you're pessimism ends up being right.
To recap, late last year I did buy 100 $IREN at $33 which I had posted, but later sold those as I cleaned up tiny positions like that. While IREN is lowest conviction, $CRWV was/is 2nd lowest, so that's why I focused on that one only after $ORCL and $NBIS. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — Cerebras $CBRS is such an interesting company (see earlier video I posted on it) but the IPO feels so much like $SNOW 5 years ago.
I'll keep these 5 shares I was allocated and would like to buy more (at least round up to 100 shares), though you could easily see this thing zig-zag flat for a few years, as fundamentals catch up to valuation.
That said, remember a bet on $CBRS is a bet on OpenAI, at least for now. If that IPO goes well and excitement returns to ChatGPT, could pull Cerebras up or at least, keep it from falling hard.
You often hear people compare $NVDA Groq to Cerebras but not really a direct comp, if Cerebras succeeds. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — Looks like I'm also going to need to sell out of Home Depot $HD right now.
Because right now price is $313.13. I want that as my cost basis. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — Mastercard $MA at exactly $500.00.
If this was in a retirement account, I would sell it all and buy back immediately, as $500.00 is prettier than $392.92.
Remember, nothing is more important in investing than having pretty prices. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — In addition to express mail, every day $XOM is in my USPS mail preview.
Seriously, they should have just paid me a $100 Exxon Mobil gift card to vote, rather than spend all these resources. I’m sure it’s costing them more than that. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — If you didn't know the name of this company, how would you value the stock?
Forward PE = 11
Data for $INTU via @gurufocus, earnings snapshot from Seeking Alpha. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — If you wonder why the film's footage has to be sourced from Australia and UK, it's because in the US, laws filming animal agriculture are on par with terrorism.
Why do you think that is? Because the truth is that shocking and unbelievable. ↗
- 2026-05-21 — It’s a hard watch, but a must watch as I’m sure @WinnerInvestor will agree. Willful ignorance is not one we can use as an excuse.
Let’s see, start here. You can always dumb down recipes by making them simpler and using pre-made components rather than from scratch. This website is non-profit so they’re not shilling anything: https://nutritionfacts.org/recipes/ ↗
- 2026-05-20 — How do you know you own a lot of stock in a company?
When the company, in this case $XOM, does the following:
- Emails you daily to proxy vote
- Calls you daily to do same, from real person, not a recording
- Texts you constantly
- You block all the above, so they send express overnight your ballot, with prepaid express return label
Doorbell pissed off my dog, so I’ll be voting AGAINST board recommendations! ↗
- 2026-05-20 — Finally!
This is the first Rocket Lab ATM in which I agree with the timing.
No “up to” nonsense. Sell all $3B of $RKLB stock Mr. Beck! ↗
- 2026-05-20 — $NVDA dividend increase from 1 penny to 25 is unwanted.
Do buybacks instead please. ↗
- 2026-05-20 — Now that $CRWD is up 85% off several weeks ago (less for $PANW, $ZS, etc.) which SaaSpocalypse cohort will be next?
I have my theory. ↗
- 2026-05-20 — For a few quarters now I've talked about this $210 level on $LOW being my more ideal target for adds. We hit it and I bought.
Q1 earnings were fine - a double beat - with sales up 10%, though as is typical lately, it's the guidance that spooks.
Similar to so many Covid boom-bust names, like $WCN I was explaining last week, the 5 year chart looks like biz has gone nowhere but that is sentiment. Underlying metrics during that time tell a different story.
Shares outstanding on Lowe's have decreased substantially last decade - screenshot from @gurufocus.
Whether you look at 10 or 20 year, you can see $LOW beats S&P. Only past few months did they lag on 10 year return and that's exactly when I like to buy a stock like this. Same for $HD but that is more yield than share price return.
No clue when housing comes back but I buy stocks when people don't want them, not when they do. This is how you build a portfolio over time - buy the highest quality permanent/long term hold names when their sector is out of favor. ↗
- 2026-05-20 — $DRAM $MU $SNDK Yeah, this won’t revert or anything. ↗
- 2026-05-19 — With just 14 days notice, Coinbase $COIN will cease your Bitcoin $BTC and other assets, turning them over to the state, if your account is deemed inactive.
When I sold my house, I used my vacation home's address on my brokerage accounts for a while, including for Coinbase account.
After buying new house, I switched all immediately, but forgot to update the address on Coinbase.
They sent me this email yesterday, that they are turning over my account to the state! Not even the state I've been a resident of either, just the state on the account's mailing address.
This is not Coinbase's fault, as it's state law - varying from as little as 3 years for many.
However, it IS @coinbase fault of sending one and only one notification about 13.5 days 'til deadline of forfeiture! ↗
- 2026-05-19 — Haven't mentioned Ryan Specialty $RYAN in a while because every time I write about it, only a couple people chime in with useful content. One of them is @griffonomics and he did an episode on it, which I recommend: https://youtu.be/iVcFllDHbNg
Prior to launching Ryan Specialty, Patrick Ryan founded $AON and served as its Chairman and CEO for 41 years.
Ryan is a leading wholesale brokerage and specialty lines insurer known for its substantial footprint in the E&S market. The fill the gap between retail insurance brokers and E&S carriers for complex or hard-to-place commercial risks. AI can't disrupt this if you understand it.
Most interesting tidbit? He is using his own personal $RYAN stock to incentivize talent. Not diluting more but offering up his own. That's a legit CEO right there.
Price is still very low. Barely above the IPO from 5 years ago, despite the growth since. Financials from Gurufocus. ↗
- 2026-05-19 — Since $FICO is now up 37% in 3 weeks, you should definitely expect a @pulte post soon. ↗
- 2026-05-19 — Re: questions about when I would add? I want to see this 1D loss multiple times over on $RKLB first. ↗
- 2026-05-19 — Just what I like to see: $RKLB is #1 loser today.
This is healthy. ↗
See @SayNoToTrading on X →